Coup in Labour? Internal poll leaked to Newshub

Labour’s dire internal polling has been leaked to Newshub.

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent – up 5 percent since May – just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

The company, UMR, does the polling for Labour’s inner sanctum and the results are normally kept secret from the public.

Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.

Labour are denying that it is anyone from their team. That simply isn’t credible. Why would UMR release Labour’s own polling to corporate customers before they are given to Labour first? I call bullshit on that excuse.

Labour is undergoing a slow moving coup and this is a play from the plotters. That is a standard tactic. At best for labour it shows they have a restless caucus who are deeply unhappy.

It is a credible, regular poll of 750 people that Labour’s leadership and MPs really rely on – and the figures provided to Newshub are right up to date to July.

It is very unusual for this to be leaked – and the numbers look very bad for Labour.

The graph of greatest significance shows the party vote.

National is chugging along as usual – currently on 42 percent – then Labour (26 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and New Zealand First (14 percent).

But if you zoom in on the past six months, there’s a fascinating trend.

Labour is crashing down and is at pretty much its lowest point since Andrew Little took over after the last election.

This trend – and the rise of New Zealand First – will be deeply concerning for Labour – this is their information and is what they are making their decisions on.

Now we know why the Greens are cutting up rough with Winston Peters. They’ve got a copy of this poll too. They can read as well as the next person and the poll shows that Labour’s votes are sloughing off to Winston Peters and they want a piece of that action.

I am still picking this is an internal leak. Caucus knows they’re going down, and some people want Labour to go down HARD to ensure Little is history come September 24. They’ll pin the whole crap show on him and start again.

The problem for Andrew Little is that this is actually an internal leak. It is planned so as to bury Little and take Labour below 23%. This is nothing short of a decapitation strategy to make sure Little isn’t even in parliament to contest the leadership after they lose their fourth election in a row.

And may I just add, this is the same reason that the New Zealand voting age should not be lowered to 16. In fact, it should also be raised to 20. Making good choices requires life experience, and young people are avoiding the realities of real life much longer than they did before all this liberal cuddling started. But that’s for another day.



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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.