Latest Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan topsy-turvy poll is out and despite the government confidence ratings improving, somehow his poll records a drop for National

In July New Zealand?s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand?s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.
  • Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.
  • Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5%.



Roy Morgan is the least credible poll in NZ. Mainly because it records wild swings in results which are simply not believable. It is especially not believable when you consider his Government Confidence ratings:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 5pts to 139.5pts in July with 63% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) saying NZ is ?heading in the right direction? cf. 23.5% of NZ electors (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ?heading in the wrong direction?.

It does not make sense that if people think the government is heading in the right direction that Labour would get a bounce and National a fall.

What it does show though is that Labour cannot win government unless it has the Greens AND NZ First, and after this week that is never going to happen.


-Roy Morgan