Poor old Bryce Edwards, suffering delusions again

Haha, suckers

Bruce Edwards writes a political roundup column for a newspaper.

He is a soppy wet lefty and it shows in writing. In his latest column he makes the claim that the Greens could “surge” in the polls:

The next round of political opinion poll results could be fascinating. Will they register any impact at all from Metiria Turei’s infamous benefit fraud confession? Will the Greens be rewarded or punished? How will other parties be affected? Below are some of the possible ramifications from the ongoing controversy.  
1: The Greens could surge in popularity

The Greens have probably never had so much media attention or ignited so much polarised debate. And although plenty of this reaction is negative, voters looking for a more anti-establishment or rebellious politician may look to Turei who has now strongly positioned herself as a battler for those at the bottom of the heap. So if there’s any mood in New Zealand for leftwing radicalism, as we’ve seen in some other countries recently, the Greens could be the recipients of those votes.

That is simply wishful thinking. He goes on to quote Wrongly Wrongson aka Martyn Bradbury, the most wrong man in New Zealand politics, as his evidence.

The next public polls will show that the Greens support has slipped. But they will also show that his next hypothesis is in fact a nightmarish reality.

2: The wider political left could suffer

Regardless of how the Greens fare in the next polls, many commentators believe that the overall vote for the parties of the left might suffer, in particular negatively affecting the Labour Party. Vernon Small says “Labour should budget for a loss of voters to NZ First in protest at the close relationship Labour has with that party. Probably a net loss for Labour looks the most likely.”

Martin van Beynen also says the damage will be to Labour: “it will worry Labourites. They are hitched to the Greens and will be concerned Turei has just scared off a whole lot of ordinary, innately conservative working and small business people who still believe welfare is a hand-up rather than a hand-out” – see: Turei’s middle-class hand wringing will hurt Labour.

Turei’s increased radicalism is clearly a ploy “aimed at hoovering up left-wing voters in New Zealand who have looked at the surge in popularity of an alternative, radical UK Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn, and decided they want some of that” says the NBR’s Rob Hosking in his column, Metiria’s benefit concert (paywalled).

But, Hosking says, it will ultimately have a negative impact: “Watch for it to turn people off, especially but not exclusively those who vote for Mr Peters’ party. There is no shortage of core Labour voters, too, who resent beneficiaries ripping off the system. In the end, people elect people, not policies. Ms Turei’s admission, as lawyers say, “goes to character.” It is going to hurt not just her, or even her party, but the broader Left.”

Labour is having its support chopped away from two sides. The hard, lunatic, left by the Greens and the centre-left by Winston Peters. Convergence will occur at around 20% between NZ First and Labour. Right now Labour is seriously worried because their internal polling is showing NZ First well over 15%.

He is also right on his third scenario:

The worst possible outcome for Metiria Turei, is that she could get charged and convicted under the Crimes Act for benefit fraud. Patrick Gower says “Under the Electoral Act, if an MP is convicted of a crime punishable with a sentence of more than two years, they have to leave Parliament” – see: Conviction for fraud could see Metiria Turei quit.

However, an article by Jo Moir and Henry Cooke says “Otago University law professor Andrew Geddis told Stuff that would be unlikely as the charges would be hard to bring and the law at the time didn’t specify a prison sentence of over two years – the barometer for whether a convicted MP has to leave Parliament or not” – see: Metiria Turei to meet with Work and Income investigators next week about her benefit fraud.

For better or worse, Turei’s reputation has been irrevocably altered. According to Rodney Hide, her lack of remorse or apology means she is destined to be dumped as co-leader of the Greens – see: Turei wins the handout vote.

Turei’s untrustworthiness is what will kill her career, says Hide: “It has finished her politically. She’s self-labelled a benefit cheat. That will haunt her. It will be the first thought most people have on hearing her name. It’s not a positive for the great majority of us. She’s proved she will lie to suit her purpose. And have no remorse in doing so. That’s the very damaging thing: she doesn’t see she’s done wrong. She sees herself as simply doing what was necessary. That’s not the behaviour of a person you can trust. It’s not a person to have in power.”

It’s the lack of contrition that is the problem according to fellow fraudster, Damien Grant, who says “we’ve both committed fraud”, but Turei has failed to acknowledge any wrongdoing – see: Sorry seems to be the hardest word for Metiria Turei.

Turei’s career is all but over. She doesn’t realise it yet, but when the Greens get below 10% in the election she should be told to leave and leave quickly. The Greens are going to come a distant 4th in the election, with only a sliver between second and third.

The rest of Bryce Edwards’ column is a a whole bunch of academic wishful thinking.

The self-confessed fraudster has wrecked the Greens and Labour on the way through.


-NZ Herald

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.