Whaleoil Poll Result: 2017 National Party voting intention (July)

We’ve run five previous polls, roughly one a month since February.   This was the result yesterday.

 

Here is the progression of results  

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Other 5 5 4 5 5 4
WILL vote National again 53 55 48 52 57 55
MIGHT vote National again 23 21 20 17 15 16
WON’T vote National again 19 19 28 26 23 25

 

This was from a 1600+ voter sample*.  The voters are Whaleoil readers.  This poll follows the Metiria Turei WINZ fraud announcement, Winston Peters’ binding referendum on Maori seats announcement and is in the wake of Labour’s “Slave Labour” intern problem petering out.  National have made several announcements around housing and benefits, but are largely drowned out by the NZ First, Green and Labour circuses.

Based on this non-scientific but strongly indicative Whaleoil poll, National will get 41-43% of the party vote in September, depending on the proportion of wasted votes being distributed from parties such as TOP and the Conservatives which will not make it to parliament.

Although the “won’t” camp are fairly determined, those not sure are balancing the need for certainty of outcome rather than letting Winston Peters decide.  Even so, this does indicate that at least a quarter of educated National voters are looking to go elsewhere.   Recent polling suggests they have moved to NZ First.

At this stage, Whaleoil predicts a National/NZ First coalition, with ACT remaining on the outer on confidence and supply.   Peter Dunne and the Maori party will not be invited to join the next government.  That inclusiveness came from Key.  And Winston Peters will force them out even if National is in essence still open to working with them.

* sample sizes:  Feb 1900+, Mar 1800+, Apr 1900+, May 1900+, Jun 1600+, Jul 1600+


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