Election 2017: Game on!

What a poll to come out on the night that parliament went into recess.  National are still fairly steady, around the numbers that we have been predicting.

But nobody could have foreseen the stunning Green melt-down following Andrew Little getting kicked to the kerb and being replaced with Jacinda Ardern.

Based on Jacinda’s performance in the media over the last week, the voters are happy to believe that she will fix everything and do just as good a job as Bill English.   Oh how the National party must rue the day that John Key left a certain National win behind him because he’d had enough.

This is just one poll, and the most joyous part to take from it is that the Greens may be out of parliament by September 23.  And I can’t think of a better result.  They can take their sanctimony elsewhere.  Most Green voters clearly don’t see things the way Metiria wants them to.  And those political retards that make up most of the Green list MPs bet on the wrong horse.   United behind Metiria indeed.

Labour’s numerous new taxes will hurt them in the end, and National hasn’t even got their election machine into action yet.  As bad as they are at doing by-elections, National have the general election strategies down pretty well.  They have the cash, they have the ground game, and even Bill English can’t blunt the fear of the emerging Left to the point where National voters will run to Labour in any significant quantity.

So no need to fret dear readers.  This is as good as it’s going to get for the Labour party in terms of polls.  And in the end, the price of having the Green party turfed from parliament is that those voters need to go somewhere else.

Since Winston has been denied his usual media oxygen over the last two weeks it has reflected this in the polls.  A fair number of his voters have Alzheimers so they need frequent reminders.

With the numbers like this, the luxury of protest votes will be  exchanged for the certainty of the Devil We Know.  This will hurt ACT and NZ First’s chances of becoming substantial influencers in the next government.  They would argue it is even more important to support them, but without a guarantee that NZ First will swing right, people will no longer feel confident.

When it comes to polling, I trust one pollster more than any others.  And for now, I’m not at all worried.  We will have a National-led government.  I’m just pleased to see that the One News poll also has the Greens under 5%.  It echoes UMR and other private polls.  They are going to be lucky to survive at all.


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