About Labour’s Maori seat claims and their dodgy polling

On the weekend Willie Jackson was running about touting all sorts of things about how Labour was going to smash the Maori party in the Maori seats.

He made lots of crap up, like talking about internal polling from the Nats. That was a stupid lie because a text to David Farrar confirmed that was a lie and has been a lie for nearly a decade.

And speaking of David Farrar, he’s noticed something about those polls released by Labour:

Newshub reports:

The Hui has obtained the results of an internal Labour Party survey of Waiariki which is currently held by Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and the numbers make interesting reading.  

It shows Labour candidate Tamati Coffey is trailing Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell by just 1.5 percent.

That is not the interesting part. Personally I strongly doubt that Coffey is near Flavell when you consider his majority last time and the fact Mana has now endorsed him.

Here is the interesting part:

Which of the following would you cast your party vote for?

  • National – 13.4 percent
  • Labour – 19.4 percent
  • The Greens – 12.1 percent
  • NZ First – 25.7 percent
  • The Māori Party – 18.9 percent
  • Another Party – 4.4 percent
  • Unsure – 6.1 percent

If you take away the undecideds, Labour is saying their poll has the party vote in Waiariki as:

  • National 14.3% (+9.2% from election)
  • Labour 20.7% (-18.1%)
  • Greens 12.9% (+4.8%)
  • NZ First 27.4% (+14.7%)
  • Maori Party 20.1% (-1.9%)

So Labour have released an internal poll showing their party vote has halved in Waiariki. I’m not sure the poll is that credible, but regardless why would you release a poll showing your party vote has plummeted?

Is the poll credible?

Well, no. Matthew Hooton asked Hui in a tweet who had completed the polling that was released to them.

And who is Community Engagement Limited?

Well, that gets interesting…it is run by a Labour sycophant, Ella Hardy.

And who is Ella Hardy?

She is the former NZ Young Labour President. Her business partner, Eric Goddard calls himself a Labour volunteer.

The company is registered on a boat at Berth Y33 at Westhaven Marina in Auckland. It is not accredited with the Research Association. They have no website. There is no record of them ever having conducted a political opinion poll ever before other than for Labour plant Justin Lester.

I think that poll that was released has about as much credibility as Colin Craig’s own dodgy polling that showed him in front in Rodney, just before Mark Mitchell smashed him with a 12,000 vote majority.


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