Chart of Day – Who wants Winston to work with whom?

Fairfax reports:

After we’ve voted, then what? Who forms a government?

It’s turned into a close and unpredictable election. The opinion polls are bouncing all over the place. So we can’t confidently predict the election result, let alone the choices for government-formation following that.

The Stuff/Massey Election survey at the beginning of August asked readers about different coalition arrangements.

So, what we can reveal is what you told us about some of the coalition possibilities.

Nearly 50,000 readers completed the online survey. As a self-selected sample, it is not strictly “scientific” and representative. But a reasonable cross-section of New Zealanders took part.

Naturally, the more conservative voters tend not to support a Labour–Green coalition. Seventy-one per cent of NZ First supporters and 82 per cent of National supporters preferred to see the Greens in opposition.

As the centrist party that could help to form a government with either major party, the opinions about NZ First are more interesting – and more complicated.

When asked about NZ First, 59 per cent of Labour supporters said they’d prefer to see them working with Labour in government, compared with 40 per cent who wanted to see them in opposition.

But 43 per cent of National supporters would prefer to see NZ First working with National in government, compared with 56 per cent who wanted to see them remain in opposition.

So Labour supporters were more open than National supporters to the prospect of their preferred party doing a deal with Winston. But the poll was done the same week that Jacinda took over, and Labour supporters’ opinions may have shifted.

NZ First supporters were split. Forty-six percent preferred to go with National, and 41 per cent with Labour, while 13 per cent preferred staying in opposition.

Plenty of National party supporters, ministers and back benchers have told me they want to work with Winston Peters like they want to catch cancer. They state that nothing could be worse than working with Winston.

That, of course, is wishful thinking, and I tell them that.

They always ask me what is worse than going into coalition with Winston Peters…and this is what I tell them.

The only thing worse than going into coalition with Winston Peters is becoming the highest ranking party after the election, and having Winton Peters refuse coalition, instead giving your party supply and everything else is up for grabs as he sits on the cross benches. A minority government, where Bill English would have to go on bended knee, cap in hand to pass any legislation outside of normal supply bills.

Naturally, there is always opposition if they so choose.




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