Explaining is losing: Why the polls are wrong (how I was right)

Guest post

It was amazing in a sense that the polls “corrected’ in the last week and actually came very close to the actual result. Colmar Brunton in particular having an amazing “swing” from a week before.

I stand by my original premise that the polls prior to the last week reflected what the media party wanted to happen, not the reality. And boy did it backfire!

As a swing voter, exceedingly cross with National over a few issues, including immigration, 2334, lack of RMA reform and the cluster that is Auckland, those polls and my lack of a serious alternative “home” guaranteed two ticks blue.  

In part one, I made the assertion that one of either the greens or NZF would not make the 5%. My thinking was that the Greens were the most vulnerable and indeed they were! Unfortunately for NZ, they have scrapped through and forced a coalition government on the country.

This could be a positive – if the hydra is only two headed and Winston is not too overly impressed with himself.

If the Hydra is of the three headed variety – then this country is in for a very turbulent time and the long term consequences could be dire. We will not have to wait for 2020 – we will be doing the election thing quite a bit sooner and the political landscape could look very different.

Ahh MMP – the only system of government where a person who loses an electorate seat, who’s party gains less than 10% of the popular vote, gets to decide who governs and what the policies will be.

As a “swing” voter, my natural home is on the conservative side – so NZF, National and ACT are the three possible alternatives. NZF was never an option due to Winston’s past and my lack of trust in what he would do – I believe he will go with National, but with Winston – its “what’s in it for me” that matters most.

ACT is probably my logical “home” and I desperately wanted to vote for them this time – except – David when interacting with us “oiler’s” did more to push me away then gain my support – and judging by the WO (most scientific) polling the same happened with a lot of “oiler’s”. ACT could only get my support if they could mobilise their vote – and David didn’t make that happen!

So National got my vote – not because of wanting to vote for them – there really were no alternatives.

Looking into the tea leaves.

What is the future going to bring?

The Maori Party, United future, the conservatives, and Mana are gone. TOP will never be a factor and if they are there next election will get less than 1% – the novelty factor will be gone.

ACT are irrelevant and unless they show the right of centre electorate that they bring some value to the table, Epsom will turn blue next election.

NZF have a single opportunity to stay alive in 2020 – by showing that they are relevant as a party and add value to a National/NZF coalition – otherwise they too will be gone with Winnie at the next election.

My prediction for 2020 – Labour, National and the Greens will be the only parties that win seats – Government will be decided on where those NZF votes go!


– Rosco

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.