If Labour are relying on youth to get across the line they are out of luck

Labour in the past several elections have clutched at straws to get over the line.

Irrespective of leadership they tried copying Obama’s social media campaign for 2011. Campaign chair Trevor Mallard waxed lyrical about how their blogs, twitter and Facebook presence would get them over the line.

They claimed that big data was how they were going to win in 2014, and social media. Even enlisting a criminal enterprise to skew the election failed.

They claimed there was a missing million who failed to vote and have devised programmes to try and find them.  

Last election and in this there have been various left-aligned groups seeking the same missing million. In this election there is constant talk of a “youth-quake” to help get them over the line.

Here’s the problem for them, it simply doesn’t exist.

How do we know that?

Well, easy pinko commentators are writing about how it doesn’t exist now. Chris Trotter worries that Labour are going to lose, but don’t worry they will get there next time. Bryce Edwards devoted a whole column linking to other people who say the same thing.

All of this is gut feel of course, so what do the stats say?

Isherman, one of our moderators, notes:

The first line should be a worry for Jacinda. I think she needs much more of that group. She’ll still get the Facebook likes peoples choice though.

Except Facebook likes and Tweets have never translated into votes, ever.

Jacinda Ardern may want a youth-quake and generational change, but she has done little other than be a smiley concern face to motivate those generations she is adjacent to to actually bother to vote.

Frankly, if young people can’t be bothered spending literally 10 minutes enrolling once every three years, and 15 minutes voting then they don’t deserve “generational change”.

What does that even mean anyway?

If Labour are relying on the young to vote then they are doomed, and so is Jacinda Ardern.

 


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