Latest Newshub poll good for Nats, not so much for Labour

Newshub’s latest poll has the National party well in front with Labour 10 points behind.

The real bad news for the left though is that the Greens are below 5% and possibly out of parliament.

The latest Newshub-Reid research poll* shows that National has climbed to 47.3% – an increase of 4% from just over one week ago**. Meanwhile, Labour has shown its first decrease since Jacinda Ardern took over as party leader to sit on 37.8% – a decline of 1.6%.

The results show a potentially devastating turn of events for the Greens as they drop to 4.9% – a further decrease of 1.2% from the last Newshub-Reid research poll. On that result the Greens would miss out on the five per cent threshold and not make it into Parliament. NZ First is also showing a small decline but is currently tracking ahead of the Greens on 6%.

When it comes to preferred Prime Minister, both party leaders are showing an increase but it appears that the leaders’ debates have swung in favour of Bill English. English (33.1%) is recording a 3% increase, and Ardern (31.7%) is showing a 1.8% increase. Winston Peters meanwhile, is down on previous poll results at 6%.

Newshub political editor Patrick Gower said: “These results are dramatic and devastating. A dramatic rise for National to the top of the table, and devastating for the Greens who would be kicked out of Parliament. The overall outlook in the election is still volatile. The vote is extremely volatile.”

Three’s #Decision17 live election coverage will be available on Three and ThreeNOW from 7.00PM, 23rd September. RadioLIVE will also be covering the results throughout the evening with Mark Sainsbury joined in studio by Chris Trotter as well as a line-up of commentators on rotation throughout the night.

Duncan Garner will be hosting the special, joined by Patrick Gower and The Nation host, Lisa Owen.

Garner said: “The polls are as volatile and as unpredictable as the campaign itself. One poll says Labour, the next says National. It’s the most interesting election in decades. No one can call it. Both English and Ardern have campaigned well, but both sides have issues that they’re desperate to either keep quiet or expose in this intense arm wrestle to the end.”

“The minor parties are collapsing and fighting for their very existence. And that, I sense, means some voters are still making up their minds.”

The feedback I am getting is that the polls are harder to pick than a broken nose. They are all over the place.

This poll is but one data point, but going into the last 10 days it provides a boost for National.

Traditionally the two major parties and the Greens slide away in the last two weeks. NZ First rises.

National’s insurance policy is now NZ First, if they slide below a level where they can govern alone.

Labour though is hurting and that can be sheeted home to the lack of detail and the happy face campaign that lacks any substance.

 

-Newshub

 


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