Newshub final poll: Nats and Labour slide, Winston is still Kingmaker

The last major poll before the election is out and all polls are now in alignment. The Newshub/Reid Research poll shows Labour and the Nats sliding back as predicted, with Winston Peters growing. Expect that to continue a little over the next 24 hours.

The final poll is in, and it shows either side could take power on Saturday.

National has dropped back slightly to 45.8 percent. It is still the largest single party, but is teetering in the danger zone.

Labour is back a bit too, sitting on 37.3 percent.  

However the major parties’ losses are the minor parties’ gains.

The Greens are back to safety. They are on 7.1 percent. In Newshub’s last poll they were below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.

NZ First is up to 7.1 percent too.

The crucial number in this poll is the combined Labour-Greens vote. At 44.4 percent, it’s oh-so-close to National’s 45.8 percent.

That makes Winston Peters crucial to both of them.

Yes, it does. I have been saying this all along. National cannot govern with existing partners. It needs Winston Peters. Bill English will be fuming that his team tried to stab Winston Peters with a privacy breach. Utu will be extracted for that.

The Preferred PM stakes are little changed.

Jacinda Ardern still sits behind Bill English.  No government under MMP has ever been formed where the second place getter in the Preferred PM stakes has then become PM.

It will all come down to who handles Winston Peters the best, and what happens with turnout.

Right now things are sitting pretty much where I thought they would be.

 

-Newshub

 


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