The polls, and why they are wrong – Part 2

Guest post

The discussion generated by my article “Why the polls are wrong” was robust and I thought very insightful – so much so that I would like to share some of those comments with you and speculate (tin foil hat time!) about what it all means.

patriot wrote:

“Colmar Brunton rang me Tuesday night. I was so excited to answer their questions and tell them I wld be voting National, but after asking my age bracket (55-60), the lady said sorry, but they had filled their ‘quota’ for my age group!”

ShoreRight

“The same happened to a family member in Auckland ….they wanted a 18-44 year old so that counted him out.”

Larry

“The same thing happened to me. I wasn’t in the right age group.”

Seems to support the position that polling companies are not “randomly” polling the electorate they are “selectively” polling the electorate – a totally different concept!  

Then Jenny wrote:

“It’s not so much as the questions asked but the WAY the question is worded. From what I have gathered even Colmar Brunton have changed their methodology.”

Interesting!!

Then Moa shared some thoughts on the US polling.

“The technique used in the US campaign was to oversample registered Democrats by margins of 15% or more.

Once you understood this, and saw Hillary was 4% or so ahead of Trump by these polls then you knew Trump was actually nearly 10% up.

Once things got closer to the election the US pollsters started sampling in a more balanced way, to try and retrieve credibility as the election loomed. That’s why there seemed to be large shifts in the last week.”

So… polls are a self fulfilling prophesy… maybe. It would not be the first time that the MSM and the left in general have used underhand tactics to try to win an election – anyone remember Dirty Politics?

 

– Rosco

 


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