Respected journalist (we have so few) embarasses himself

(Normally) Investigative journalist Martin van Beynen predicts:

I’m sticking with my earlier prediction that Labour will get more party votes than National. I’m even more convinced having interviewed Jacinda Ardern. However, as she points out, the result will ride on turnout. If the young and the strugglers get their backsides into gear and bother to enrol and vote, there could well be a change of government.

As for the minor parties I predict that NZ First will probably get over the threshhold but not by much. It’s a one man party and people are a bit sick of Winston.

The Greens will survive. Metiria Turei’s benefit disaster seems like years ago and the traditional Green support is still there. James Shaw has done a tremendous job of bringing the party back from the brink.

The Opportunities Party could do surprisingly well. It appeals especially to thinking young people and was mentioned on the tour about as much as Winston Peters.

Wishful thinking isn’t what good political analysts do.  As readers can see on Whaleoil, what I want to happen and what I think will happen are two different things.

“TOP appeals to thinking young people.”


Martin should stick to what he’s good at.  If he truly thinks the Greens won’t be punished for Metiria and their support of her because it “seems like ages ago”, then he just demonstrates that he has no idea how voters react.

Respect the voters.  They are incredibly smart.  And they will punish anyone who is taking them for granted or is seriously taking the piss.


– Stuff


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