All this talk about mood for change is rubbish

The Media party are going all in to try and shame Winston Peters into going with Labour AND the Greens into a bare majority government of one.

Clearly they have forgotten all their campaigns they ran against David Seymour and Peter Dunne when National had a bare majority. Labour too seems to have forgotten their campaigns against the same guys always pressuring them by saying they were the government’s majority.

The way the numbers stand today the following combinations are possible:

National 58 + NZ First 9 = 67 seats, a majority of seven

Labour 45 + NZ First 9 + Greens 7 = 61 seats, majority of one

National 58 + Greens 7 = 65 seats, majority of five.

That is it.   

The left-wing and Media party are going all in claiming a mood for change, but only counting NZ First on the left side of the equation. They ignore that Winston Peters loathes the Greens. They also ignore the wasted vote re-allocation and are hoping and praying that the special votes fall their way. That isn’t reporting, that is wishful thinking.

But is there a mood for change?

Consider this:

Labour scored 35.8% meaning 64.2% of voters didn’t want them.

The Greens scored 5.8% meaning 94.2% of voters didn’t want them.

NZ First scored 7.5% meaning 92.5% of voters didn’t want them.

National scored 46% meaning 56% of voters didn’t want them.

Act scored 0.5% meaning almost everyone who voted didn’t want them at all.

Over 4% voted for other muppet parties, and that vote was wasted.

The left wing is claiming an overwhelming vote for change. That just isn’t so, and even if they add up those who they want in government they can only muster a bare majority.

But they ignore that if you add NZ First to National, not only do you get what they claim, a change of government, albeit with National as the majority party, you also get a bigger majority than their calculations with three component parties.

The Maori party and United Future are gone, those were part of the last government, and therefore change has actually occurred. Act is irrelevant, it has been for some time, but they too were part of the government.

It can easily and sensibly be argued that the government has indeed changed, even if it includes NZ First.

Plus that government has a clearer majority than just a one-seat majority, something the left-wing has mocked for several years. In fact, in the past, they’ve even claimed that a bare majority of just one seat is no mandate at all. Yet here they are making the case for just that.

No one knows what Winston Peters will do, but that is MMP and best you get used to it.

I suspect though that if asked, voters, who voted at about the same level for National would want National as part of the government and rather have NZ First with them than a left-wing government with a scary tax agenda.

Before the election, it was all wishful thinking. Now the numbers are real and voters are faced with politicians choosing for them with no ability to say what they prefer now.

As I said, I suspect a majority of voters would prefer a National and NZ First government.

But we will see.



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