The Polls and why they are wrong

Guest post

Thought I’d get another one in before your first batch of interns arrives!

The Polls and why they are wrong.

There is a phenomenon going on around the world and NZ is not immune – left wing agitation and bias is there for all to see – from the media to the whole of academia, the SWJ’s rule.

So what about the common garden variety Kiwi? Well they are a strange beast – they tend to just get things right! A bit like a jury – in just about all instances they get it right – even if the individual parts would never inspire confidence!

So why are the polls wrong?  

Firstly, there is a certain amount of bias in the polling companies – we saw it in the UK with Brexit, and we saw it in the US with Trump – polling companies have a bias aligned with those that commission the polling – our wonderful MSM.

Secondly, most of the true switch voters – those without any ideological allegiance and who are ultimately the decision makers on who will govern – this group have yet to make up their minds. They will vote on the substance of policies such as taxation and what’s in it for me. Labour will not appeal to this group.

Thirdly – a lot of those polled will not vote! A significant portion of the population does not bother – this is never reflected in the polls.

Number four – After Brexit and Trump, people will lie to the media and the polling companies – with the left being so vindictive and willing to attack anyone with contrary opinions – people either lie or obfuscate.

So what are the polls good for?

What they do signify is trends – it is obvious that a lot (most?) of the electorate would welcome change – after nine years, the guests have overstayed their welcome and the door is open. The problem is that the lot waiting outside to gain entry are scruffy and unkempt and they really do waffle. Do we really want to let them in?

The second trend is that the Greens and NZF are in decline and one or both may be missing after the election – this reflects the Me Tu shambolic parade for the Greens and the likelihood that NZF would go with labour. The so called NZF protest voters want to realign National – they do not want a Labour led government.

As we have seen on the excellent (and very scientific) poll run by WO, what the polls have achieved is a focusing of the mind of those considering a “protest” vote. Rather than being perturbed by the latest polls, I think National may be quietly smiling – the polls will get their core vote out!

My prediction –

If either the greens or NZF do not return to government then National will government with ACT on their own. 68% probability.

National with NZF in coalition or on confidence and supply – 31% probability.

All other possible scenarios – 1% probability.

Why?

Unlike Barry Soper and even Cam, what I saw in the second debate was certainty versus the deep unknown. Labour (Jacinderella) did not disclose anything of substance around taxation and their various promises aka visions. The human being does not readily accept change and hates uncertainty – it is part of our nature – 2008 was a watershed year in NZ politics – change occurred because the government had become toxic and the alternative was seen as attractive – a similar sentiment is occurring against the government today – however the alternatives are seen as less than palatable. Labour are Nationals best weapon!

I am beginning to wonder if John Key stepping down is the best thing that could have happened to National and undermines the Cindy effect. More of the same old same old from National with Key at the helm may have reinforced the mantra of the need for change.

 

– Rosco

 


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