Thoughts on the election

Here are some of my thoughts on the election results.

1. Negative Campaigning Works

This election has proved that negative but accurate advertising works. Research in the past also proves this. They are simple and effective and they work.

Labour can whine all they like, the antidote to negative advertising is to front foot everything. National’s biggest hit was on tax and Labour was on the back foot all the way.

Which leads to point two.   

2. Grant Robertson is to blame for Labour’s tax screw up

With Labour’s loss, the blame can be sheeted home fair and square to Grant Robertson.

He has never prepared an alternative budget and still, hasn’t. Robbo sent Jacinda Ardern out on the hustings without any detailed tax plans and she was bashed mercilessly for it.

This was all too predictable and Robbo exposed his leader and party with his utter laziness.

Sources inside Labour tell me that Robbo refused to do an alternative budget because he thought that he needed to hold it back till the campaign. This has now turned into a total disaster because it hadn’t really been tested in public and National hadn’t criticised it. This allowed Steve Joyce to smash them, with his “lie”…or negative advertising as we prefer to call it.

3. Leaders have to have star quality

Never again can a boring person be elected leader. Nothing changed in Labour other than a smiling pretty face as the leader instead of a boring, rubber-faced dropkick.

But, unless they are as organised and as competent as Clark they still won’t win. Guys like Robbo & Phil Twyford are bloody boring so there is no depth in Labour if Jacinda decides to chuck it in.

4. Steve Joyce is a world-class campaigner

Steve Joyce has managed to make Bill English look good enough to win.

He was also able to smash Labour on tax and then took the pain for it, but still got his message across to voters.

5. Polling

It is very hard to take Colmar Brunton seriously because their polling swings were too big and made them look a lot like Roy Morgan’s polling.

Anyone who quotes Horizon polling is a complete dickhead, they’ve been so wrong election after election they should shut up shop.

Newsroom has been shown up to be a partisan bunch of Labour loving dickheads too, with their completely wonky polling.

Reid Research has had the most consistent and accurate polls.

6. Labour’s big new caucus will have problems

With lots of new MPs, all of whom owe their place in the caucus to Jacinda Ardern it will be difficult to manage. They aren’t Jacinda’s people, she wasn’t the leader when they were selected.

Some will go, rogue, especially the union bruvvas.

There are not too many old respected people left now Annette King has gone. Labour’s caucus still has some old tuskers and failures like Trevor Mallard. He is at least on the list so can bolt for some sort of average job somewhere else.

 


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