Whaleoil Poll Result: 2017 National Party voting intention (September Poll 2)

We’ve run nine previous polls, roughly one a month since February.   This was the result for our tenth and last poll yesterday.


Here is the progression of results  

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug A Aug B Sep A Sep B
Other 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 3
WILL vote National again 53 55 48 52 57 55 68 76 78 83
MIGHT vote National again 23 21 20 17 15 16 13 8 7 4
WON’T vote National again 19 19 28 26 23 25 16 13 12 10


This was from a 2300+ voter sample*.  The voters are Whaleoil readers.  This poll follows a number of public polls showing Labour and National  within sniffing distance of each other.

Based on this non-scientific but strongly indicative Whaleoil poll, National will get 41-43% of the party vote in September, before the proportion of wasted votes being distributed from parties such as TOP and the Conservatives which will not make it to parliament.

People who have been unsure about voting National again are now at the lowest results during our polling.  People who have wanted to “punish” or “correct” National by voting for ACT or NZ First have also waned to much smaller numbers.

There is no longer the luxury of a protest vote if you want to keep National in government.  Whaleoil suspects quite a number of ‘voting booth sobering up’ where previous National voters who have many reasons not to vote for National dislike the alternative more, so they will give their party vote to National and hate themselves for doing it.


Whaleoil predicts for National to come out with a larger party vote – just.  Depending on NZ First’s options, a NZ First / National coalition is still the most likely outcome.  With all the election drama that has been at play, we appear to finish the way we started:  A National/NZ First coalition government with ACT and the Maori parties on Confidence and Supply but without cabinet positions.  


* sample sizes:  Feb 1900+, Mar 1800+, Apr 1900+, May 1900+, Jun 1600+, Jul 1600+, Aug A 1900+, Aug B 2000+, Sep A 1900+, Sep B 2300+


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