Where are we at with the polls?

In the last two weeks we have had three polls, two from 1News/Colmar Brunton and the Newshub/Reid Research polls.

The polls and potential results are getting harder to pick than a broken nose.

But what do they really say.

Simon Lusk and I talked about polling. in our podcast, with Peter Ellis. Here it is again so you can remind yourself of what he was saying about polls and probability.

Now that you have refreshed your memory, let’s look at what Peter’s models are telling us with the probability of various solutions for government.

What chance does the government present arrangements have of forming a government?

As you can see the chance of current coalition partners forming a government is now just 3% down from 35% in my last review of the state of the polls.

Can Labour form a government with just the Greens?

The model says that is impossible, and even more so if the Greens slide under 5%. That is a distinct possibility.

So, no chance really of a Labour/Green government despite the latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll. But, what about just Labour and and NZ First?

That has climbed from zero in my last review. There is now a 52% chance of occurring.

The best way Labour can govern and get any reasonable chance of that occurring is if Labour, NZ First AND the Greens get together.

That has risen from a 53% chance, to a 93% chance. So, by increasing their own score Labour has increased the chances of forming a government, but it is still not quite 100%. The two big wrinkles in that scenarios though are: 1) Can the Greens make it back? and 2) Will Winston Peters work with them?

Still, it is way better than the existing governing arrangements and partners, which is just 3% now.

There is one more scenario, one the media never talk about. That is a National/NZ First government. What are the chances of them being able to muster more than 50% of the votes?

That is now at 85% chance of occurring down from 100%. This is because of the slide in the polls of both National and NZ First. It is still the highest two party combinations possible.

The last chart looks at what some National party people are saying is possible if the Maori party win a couple of seats and boost their list vote as well. That is a joint National/Maori party coalition.

Sorry, but that just won’t happen with just a 1% chance.

There is no emotion in this, simply statistics. The model says the solutions have x% of being right. You can use emotion like media front people or you can use statistics…I prefer statistics.

For the left-wing though these numbers given them a far greater chance than they had previously.

One thing that is still a absolutely certainty, and that is that Winston Peters is going to be the only person in a position to dictate who will enjoy supply and confidence in the house. No one else. Despite what Corin Dann and Patrick Gower have to say about things.

 

-Peter’s Stats Blog

 


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