Green party vote analysis

The way the opposition are carrying on you’d think that there was a real massive increase in the Green vote to suggest a vote for change. There wasn’t of course, the Greens slumped.

They are also poo-poohing the suggestion that the Greens could work with National. We’ve heard claims about how the two parties are incompatible on policy and many other areas.

But is this strictly true?

Let’s dissect the Green vote.   

How many electorates were there where the Labour + Green vote exceeded the National vote?

The answer is 30 out of 71 electorates. So, in a majority of 41 electorates the combined Labour + Green vote could not beat National. In fact in the 30 seats where the combined vote was higher than National’s the National party won the party vote (9) in almost a third of them. Some of those seats also were National seats, Auckland Central, Hutt South, Maungakiekie, and Nelson

Which electorates delivered the best results for the Green party?

The top ten electorates for the Green party vote were:

Electorate Green PV Who holds
Wellington Central 6619 Labour
Rongotai 5604 Labour
Mt Albert 4184 Labour
Port Hills 3613 Labour
Auckland Central 2925 National
West Coast-Tasman 2581 Labour
Nelson 2536 National
Hutt South 2503 National
Mana 2485 Labour
Christchurch Central 2468 Labour

So, of the top ten electorates that delivered good results for the Green party, three are held by National. But, if you look at which party won the party vote in the electorate the dynamics change a little. In those electorates National won the party vote in six out of the ten seats.

Which electorates delivered the worst results for the Green party?

The worst ten electorates for the Green party vote were:

Electorate Green PV Who holds
Manukau East 447 Labour
Manurewa 509 Labour
Māngere 572 Labour
Botany 659 National
Waiariki 662 Labour
Pakuranga 799 National
Papakura 799 National
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 837 Labour
Hauraki-Waikato 880 Labour
Waikato 943 National

Surprisingly the majority are Labour held seats. But more surprisingly National won the party vote in four of those seats. Some of those are actually South Auckland seats, which should be the natural constituency for a Green party that is mostly filled with hard left socialists or communists.

Now let’s look at what should be natural constituencies for the Greens and their claims of being the party of social justice and equity and also the party of the claims of Metiria Turei.

You’d think South Auckland and West Auckland would deliver a great many votes for the Greens, wouldn’t you?

Not so, this is South Auckland:

Electorate Green PV Who holds
Hunua 972 National
Māngere 572 Labour
Manukau East 447 Labour
Manurewa 509 Labour
Papakura 799 National

Pathetic numbers were delivered from the poorest areas of Auckland. Each South Auckland seat was under 1000 party votes for the Greens, and two of those seats are held by National.

What about West Auckland?

Electorate Green PV Who holds
Kelston 1611 Labour
Mt Albert 4184 Labour
New Lynn 1660 Labour
Te Atatū 1332 Labour
Upper Harbour 1176 National

Only Mt Albert delivered a good party vote result for the Greens. Ironically this is Jacinda Ardern’s electorate, but it does suggest a trend as we look at electorates on the Auckland isthmus.

Electorate Green PV Who holds
Auckland Central 2925 National
Epsom 2241 Act
Maungakiekie 1575 National
Mt Roskill 1686 Labour
Tāmaki 1613 National

What this shows is that there is a better return for the Greens on party vote in Central Auckland seats than South or West Auckland. These isthmus seats are held by either National or Act, with the exception of Mt Roskill. But the much vaunted Michael Wood lost the party vote in his electorate to National. Essentially these are National party vote seats that have delivered good numbers to the Green party.

This then leads me to suggest that the Green party gets greater support from National party vote seats or National electorate seats than from left aligned seats. As I pointed out above, The Labour + Green count exceeds National in just 29 seats out of 71. The suggestion that the Greens voters wouldn’t want a National/Green government isn’t supported by the data. National won the party vote in six out of the ten seats

What is apparent from the raw data is, apart from a few central city Labour seats, the vast majority of the Greens votes comes from seats where either National holds the seat or National won the party vote.

The Green membership is clearly not at all the same as the Green voters.


RAW DATA


Do you want:

  • Ad-free access?
  • Access to our very popular daily crossword?
  • Access to Incite Politics magazine articles?
  • Access to Podcasts?
  • Access to Political Polls?

Our subscribers’ financial support is the reason why we have been able to offer our latest service; Audio blogs. 

Click Here  to support us and watch the number of services grow.

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story.  And when he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet.   Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet, and as a result he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist that takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him.  But you can’t ignore him.

52%