NZ has swung to the left

Oh, has it now?

Senior and seasoned political gossip monger Richard Harman explains it like this

Michael Appleton, who often blogs on election statistics, says the swing from Labour and the Greens to National and ACT from Labour and the Greens and the Conservatives, United Future, Act and National in 2014 is 6.37%.

To put that in perspective, National lost in 1984 with a 2.88% swing against it and Labour lost in 1990 with a 12.82 swing against it.

In 1999 there was a 3.37% swing against National; in 2008 a 7.11% swing against Labour.

So since 1984, New Zealand Governments have lost power with an average 6.6% swing against them — just slightly more than the swing against the centre-right this election.

POLITIK understands that NZ First has been taking a particular interest in how voting for the two blocs – the centre-right and centre left — has swung over previous elections.

But if it was hoping that study might produce a definitive answer, then the result is probably, not really.

The problem is the disposition of the seats

After the results on Saturday, ACT had one; National, 56; Labour, 46; the Greens, 8 and NZ First 9.

A Government will need a minimum of 61 seats to govern. It would be better to have 62.

Neither bloc can reach that figure without NZ First.

Alternatively NZ First could abstain on confidence and supply votes which would mean that only 56 seats would be needed to govern. Such a move by NZ First would almost certainly force National to do a deal with ACT to get a more comfortable 57 votes which would appal Winston Peters which is why it is now probably a less likely prospect.

Both main leaders were making their pitch to him after the results were announced.

Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern said: “Today’s result lifts Labour’s final vote to 37 per cent, and the left block of seats to 54.

A swing to the left is not the same as a left majority, is it?

And I’d like to point out a part of New Zealand voted for lipstick on a pig.

There is part of me that actually wants Winston to go with Jacinda and the Greens.  The blogging will be epic.  As will watching the media and the left become willfully blind to all the embarrassing events that will unfold.


Richard Harman, Politik

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