Was the 1News poll good for Labour?

The left-wing are talking up the poll as fantastic for Labour and Jacinda Ardern, but was it?

Toby Manhire set out what would constitute a good poll for Labour before the poll was released.

Typically a new government can expect a bump in support after a victory. As David Farrar noted recently at Kiwiblog, 1999 and 2008 both saw the incoming government register a lift of 11%. “If this government follows form, then the next public polls should show Labour at 48%,” he said.

No bump. It was minuscule and should have been around 11%.

Labour at 48% would of course be a miracle. That would mean they’d literally doubled their poll numbers in just over three months. The best they managed in the campaign was 43%, albeit with a four-point lead in that Colmar Brunton result over National. It’s a bit different, too, given Labour did not win a plurality of the election tally. The National Party’s polling wizard Farrar and his allies will be hoping that the grudging sentiment that the party won the election yet is locked out of government lingers beyond Nick Smith and co. Just over 44% of voters ticked National. If they can hit 42% or better on Sunday, they’ll be thrilled.

So they didn’t even beat their previous best in polling before the election. That is a bit of a fail. National hit 46%, so they will be better than thrilled. Though it does present a problem for anyone wanting to roll Bill English. He will claim the result is because of his dynamic personality.

And yet for the most part Jacinda Ardern has enjoyed a very good start, with some impressive showings on the international stage and by launching into an ambitious – maybe too ambitious – 100-day plan. Labour finished with an official election result just shy of 37%. Certainly they’ll expect to go higher. Anything under 40% will be a disappointment. Anything above National will be a relief. Anything over 45% will warrant champagne.

Looks like they will be disappointed.


I don’t agree with Manhire that Jacinda Ardern has had a good start. Her virtue-signalling overseas went down like a cup of cold sick with everyone but the luvvies and media cheerleaders. The house is in disarray. Labour’s legislative programme is non-existent.

Maybe I am being a bit too “judgy” but I don’t think so.


-The Spinoff



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