The back of the envelope analysis of what National needs to do to win in 2020

Earlier I posted my back of the envelope analysis of why National still leads in the polls.

Basically it is buyer’s remorse…like taking the fat ugly chick to the ball because you are guaranteed a root, and then waking up the next to her in the morning full of regret.

But that is all well and good, because National still has no path to 61 seats and victory.

That is the key.   

The problem is like a rotting fish for want of a better metaphor. Everyone knows the ancient proverb that a fish rots from the head down.

And so it is with National.

While Bill leads National, National has no route to 61 seats in the house.

Let’s face it, Bill English is basically devoid of personality. He tried to emulate John Key’s blokiness and just came across as fake. You can’t spend a lifetime in the beltway scheming and plotting to counter for your own lack of ability and not have it affect your personality. When your chosen career of politician is a career actually chosen for you by your Mum then there is no real driving force inside of you…other that seeking power for power’s sake.

How popular National would be if they got rid of Bill English and a few other hangers-on like Nick Smith and Paula Bennett.

Eventually a lifetime of stabbing, manipulation and knifing will take its toll.

The last election shows you also need a personality to win, but not crass, low rent personality like that shown by Paula Bennett. She better hope the videos of her trashing her office in a mad drunken rant after losing never turn up anywhere.

So, what National needs to do is lop off the stinking, rotting head of the fish, and get themselves a new leader and deputy more suited to the modern political environment. That team must also show that unlike Labour, they have personality AND the necessary skills to lead the country.

Voters are soon going to realise that Labour’s talent pool is as shallow as a carpark puddle and they will start to look for alternatives.

All National needs to ask itself is “What is our route to 61 seats?”. As soon as they realise that Bill English won’t provide that route because of his long, long, long history then he will have his political throat cut. If he’s smart he will do it himself after wangling some offshore job somewhere…but he has only a limited time to do it.

 


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

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