I guess we won’t be hearing anymore moaning about polls not including cellphones

For years the left wing moaned that polls didn’t reflect the true standing of parties because they never polled cellphones. The premise was that if that were to happen then Labour would come storming up the polls.

Well, that has proven to be false after the latest 1News/Colmar Brunton poll, which included cellphones.

There has been no big poll bounce for the Labour led coalition government in the first Q and A 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll since the election.

The poll shows support for Labour and its two support partners has remained broadly in line with the election result, while support for National has lifted slightly.

In 1999 and 2008 the incoming government’s both experienced strong poll bounces after taking office.

Both Clark and Key experienced an 11 point bounce. This is a bad result for Labour. It also shows that National’s support is rock solid.

In the party vote standings National remains the largest party at 46 percent, up slightly on its election night result of 44.4. Labour has made a gain of around 2 percent on its election night result and is on 39 percent.

It’s coalition partner New Zealand First has slipped around 2 percent on its election night result to 5 percent. The Greens however had made a small gain climbing from 6.3 percent at the election to 7 percent. When translated into seats in the Parliament it would see the governing coalition with 63 seats. That’s the same number of seats it holds now.

This poll also shows National’s problem, or more succinctly Steve Joyce’s problem. He is the strategic genius who decided to advise Bill to run with existing coalition partners and to attempt to destroy NZ First. National has no partners now…unless they can reach across the divide and court Winston Peters. That won’t happen while Bill English and Paula Bennett are in charge though.

But while Labour may not have made huge strides since the election Jacinda Ardern is doing well in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. She’s at 37 percent compared to Bill English’s 28 percent. Winston Peters is on 5.

Whilst Jacinda Ardern tops the Preferred PM stakes she is a long way off the lofty heights John Key enjoyed. Again this is a poor performance from her, she should be smashing it out of the park.

The poll of just over 1000 eligible voters was taken between the 29th of November and the 5th of December and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

In the past 1 News Colmar Brunton Polls, have been exclusively done poll interviews via landline phones.

However this Poll marks a break with that tradition, with interviews done via a 50/50 split of mobile phones and landlines.

I guess we won’t be hearing any moaning about suspect results from the left-wing now that mobile phones are included.

 

-1News

 


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