It’s too late – we’ve missed the bus

Nearly a year ago Newshub told us about a NZ scientist appointed to help prepare a UN climate change report.

Oh wait, let me read that headline again: “Kiwi political scientist to help prepare UN climate change report.”  (Glad that they are rolling out the heavyweights for this important issue!)

Guardian

New Zealand will be represented in an international team appointed by the United Nations to investigate the impacts of global warming of 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Canterbury University Associate Professor Bronwyn Hayward will be among 86 experts from 39 countries who will prepare a special report for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The report is due to be published next year and follows the 2015 Paris Agreement to combat climate change.

I am breathless with excitement waiting for their pearls of wisdom.

It will look at ways to arrest global warming levels by assessing research and highlighting policy options.

Policy options …. let me take a wild guess – TAX?

Assoc Prof Hayward is head of Canterbury University’s Department of Political Science and International Relations.

“We need interdisciplinary thinking to address complex, serious problems,” she said.

“It is heartening to see recognition for the way arts and humanities can also assist us in tackling some of our world’s greatest challenges.”

The Paris Agreement aims to keep the global temperature rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase further to 1.5C.

Now, far be it from me to prick their bubble but Willis Eschenbach has just posted an article on Watts Up With That? which has a look at this, much touted, 2C target that the Paris Agreement is aiming to keep us well under.

Be afraid … be very afraid … the IPCC says that we shouldn’t go warmer than 2°C above the temperature of the late 1800’s. The Paris agreement says that we shouldn’t go warmer than 1.8°C above the temperature of the late 1800’s (which they say is 2°C above “preindustrial”).

Or else, we’ve been warned over and over … or else we’re facing Thermageddon, the fabled end of times. More floods. More droughts. More heat waves. More cold waves. At 2°C of warming, we’re supposed to be in deep trouble. Plants and animals curl up their toes and die. Birds fall off the perch, parrots are pining for the fjords. Stick a fork in the globe, we’re toast.[…]

As there is no way to test a 2C rise earth against a 0C rise earth to compare the difference, what can be done to assess the impact of this dire limit that the IPCC and Paris Agreement have declared as a “tipping point”?

[…]Well, we have the Berkeley Earth global average surface air temperature record, available here. As with all datasets, it has its problems, one of which I discussed here. But it’s arguably the best we have, and not a whole lot different from the others … so with all that as prologue, and without further fanfare, below I give you the Berkeley Earth global average surface air temperature anomaly. The light blue line is the monthly temperature anomaly. The yellow and black line is a six-year Gaussian smooth of the monthly temperature anomaly.

the great two degree warming

[…]  I’m sure you can see the problem.

We are already two degrees warmer than the 1850’s … more than that since the early 1800’s.

So my question to the assembled masses is … now that we’ve breached the all-important two degree Celsius climate limit, where are the corpses? Where are the unusual disasters? Where are the climate-related catastrophes? Why are there no flooded cities? What happened to the areas that were supposed to be uninhabitable? Where are the drowned atolls? We were promised millions of climate refugees, where are they?

In short, where are any of the terrible occurrences that we’ve been warned would strike us at the 2 degree Celsius limit?

[…] The world has warmed up the feared amount, and there have been no increases in any climate-related disasters.

One of the ways the Climate Alarmists in charge of the temperature datasets attempt to prove how evil we have been burning all the “fossil” fuels is by subtle (or perhaps blatant) fiddling with the historical temperature records in order to “homogenise” them.

Surprisingly, the “adjustments” needed are always to reduce the past temperature data and inflate the present temperature data.

Have they been hoist on their own petard on this one?

 


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