First poll of the year, Nats steady, Labour up after wall to wall baby coverage

Newshub has the results of their first poll of the year:

Labour is soaring.

According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, Labour’s polling is at its highest level since 2007, when Helen Clark was Prime Minister, Winston Peters was in support in confidence and supply and Rihanna’s ‘Umbrella’ was New Zealand’s top single.

The poll’s party vote has Labour on 42 percent, up 5.4 percentage points since the election.

But Labour’s rise hasn’t come at the expense of National, which is almost unchanged since the election. At 44.5 percent, National’s popularity has shifted just 0.1 percent, a slight increase.  

Labour has swallowed its coalition partner New Zealand First whole, closing the gap between National and Labour to the lowest since 2007, at 2.2 percent.

It’s devastating for NZ First. It is currently polling so low it doesn’t reach the essential 5 percent mark – the minimum percentage of the party vote required to enter Parliament. It’s lost about half its support, down to 3.8 percent of the party vote.

Opposition leader Bill English has dismissed the rise as “just a honeymoon period”, but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says that’s not the case.

“I want to prove this coalition Government is going to deliver,” she told Newshub.

The continued popularity of the major parties puts minor parties in a difficult spot. The Green Party is down 0.3 points since the election, to 6 percent, and ACT has 0.2 percent of the party vote on this poll.

The media are pathetic, going on about NZ First being gone from parliament. News flash fools, the election is more than two years away, and this is a poll just 100 days after the formation of the government.

Polls claiming devastation just 3 months after an election are next to useless. Worse still are polls conducted in the middle of holiday season.

I reckon this will be the highest they will get this year.

Bill English continues to slide in Preferred PM stakes though:

Jacinda Ardern rises while Bill English sinks as preferred Prime Minister

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has jumped up the ranks as preferred Prime Minister in the latest Newshub-Reid research poll.

Ms Ardern is sitting at 38 percent – up 8.3 points since the last poll.

Newshub’s poll asks respondents to rate the performance of their Prime Minister. Ms Ardern has the highest rating since October 2011, when John Key was Prime Minister. 70 percent of New Zealanders believe she is performing well.

Meanwhile, National leader Bill English has dropped 9 points since the last poll to 26 percent. He continues to have solid backing, with 53 percent of New Zealanders positive about Mr English’s performance as leader of the Opposition.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is sitting at 5.7 percent as the preferred Prime Minister. He’s dipped 1.4 points since the last poll.

Not surprising considering the baby news and the wall to wall Kool-Aid drinking articles from the media.

I’m not at all surprised by this poll after endless positive news coverage of Jacinda Ardern’s pregnancy. Pop that balloon and Labour are decidedly average. We could be looking at a re-run of 1972-1975 here.



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