Wait … what? There are natural fluctuations?

Way back in 1974 before the Climate Bandwagon had rolled into town and evil, evil, CO2 was blamed for everything a Chinese scientist published “A Preliminary Study on the Climatic Fluctuation during the last 5000 years in China.”


Another scientist has just translated the article that was published by Zhu Kezhen in China Daily, June 19th, 1973 (Translated by Shenhui Lang, PhD)

Zhu wasn’t your average idiot, so cannot easily be dismissed:

Zhu Kezhen (1890-1974) was a Chinese meteorologist and geologist. He graduated from the School of Agriculture, University of Illinois, and obtained his PhD in Meteorology from Harvard University. From 1920, he had successively served as chair of Department of Meteorology, Nanjing University, director of Chinese Institute of Meteorology, Academia Sinica, president of National Chekiang University (now Zhejiang University), and vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Because Zhu was not looking to prove anything, rather just having an honest look at the metrological records, his results are worth noting.  (Just add an “h” for the Climate Alarmists response, “his results are worth nothing”)

Chairman Mao taught us that “In the fields of the struggle for production and scientific experiment, mankind makes constant progress and nature undergoes constant change, they never remain at the same level. Therefore, man has constantly to sum up experience and go on discovering, inventing, creating and advancing. Ideas of stagnation, pessimism, inertia and complacency are all wrong. They are wrong because they agree neither with the historical facts of social development over the past million years, nor with the historical facts of nature so far known to us (i.e., nature as revealed in the history of celestial bodies, the earth, life, and other natural phenomena).” Some believe that there was no climate change in the human history. This idealistic type of argument has been proven wrong based on the Chinese historical records.

There are abundant records of meteorology and phenology in the Chinese historical documents, which unfortunately are scattered. This article is a preliminary analysis of the climate change based on the available historical records, hoping to draw an outline of the major trend of climate change in the past 5000 years in China.

He looked at four “data” sets:

  1. Archaeological Period (3000 to 1100 B.C) without written records except scripts on oracle bones.
  2. Phenological Period (1100 BC -1400 AD) without detailed regional records
  3. Period with Local Records
  4. Period of Instrumental Records

You can read the detail here, but his conclusions are:

1. During the first 2000 years of our 5000-year civilization, most of the time, the annual average temperature was 2ºC higher than now. The temperature in January was 3-5ºC higher than now.

2. From then on, there was a series of temperature fluctuations. The lowest temperatures occurred in AD 1000, 400, 1200, and 1700. The range of fluctuation was 1-2ºC.

3. In every 400-800 period, a smaller cycle lasting 50 to 100 years can be detected with a temperature range of 0.5 -1ºC.

4. During the above cycles, it seems that any coldest period started from the Pacific coast of East Asia. The cold waves then moved westward to Europe and the Atlantic coasts. And at the same time, there were also trends from the North to the South.

But, the CO2 alarmists tell us that a 2ºC temperature rise will doom us all.

Curiously, the Chinese civilization made it through OK.

But we do need to know who or what was pumping out all the CO2 back in 3000 BC.  Clearly, someone was because the temperature was 2ºC higher back then.

(Oh, and the answer for the bear, “Nothing, you don’t seem to be in any danger.”)

h/t WUWT


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Dr Seuss may have been describing WH when he wrote, “He was shortish. And oldish. And brownish. And mossy. And he spoke with a voice that was sharpish and bossy.”  WH, however, is tallish and only just fits in his MG.