Another “Doom Porn” embarrassment

Remember the 2005 prediction of “50 million climate refugees by 2010“?   [We got three, try-it-on, refugees from Tuvalu and their claims were rejected.]

Obligatory photo of back-lit harmless water vapour that must accompany every article on Global Warming.

The subhead for that article was “Natural disasters displace more people than wars

Well, it appears that facts have, once again, negated the doom porn purveyors’ narrative.

(How often do the pesky facts have to get in the way before these people get the message that they are on a hiding to nowhere?) 

Bjørn Lomborg, author and researcher, has done a “deep dive” into the International Disaster Database and posted his findings on Facebook.

Fewer and fewer people die from climate-related natural disasters.

This is clearly opposite of what you normally hear, but that is because we’re often just being told of one disaster after another – telling us how *many* events are happening. The number of reported events is increasing, but that is mainly due to better reporting, lower thresholds and better accessibility (the CNN effect). For instance, for Denmark, the database only shows events starting from 1976.

Instead, look at the number of dead per year, which is much harder to fudge. Given that these numbers fluctuate enormously from year to year (especially in the past, with huge droughts and floods in China), they are here presented as averages of each decade (1920-29, 1930-39 etc, with last decade as 2010-17). The data is from the most respected global database, the International Disaster Database, http://emdat.be/emdat_db/. There is some uncertainty about complete reporting from early decades, which is why this graph starts in 1920, and if anything this uncertainly means the graph *underestimates* the reduction in deaths.

Notice, this does *not* mean that there is no global warming or that possibly a climate signal could eventually lead to further deaths. Instead, it shows that our increased wealth and adaptive capacity has vastly outdone any negative impact from climate when it comes to human climate vulnerability.

Notice that the reduction in absolute deaths has happened while the global population has increased four-fold. The individual risk of dying from climate-related disasters has declined by 98.9%. Last year, fewer people died in climate disasters than at any point in the last three decades (1986 was a similarly fortunate year).

Somewhat surprisingly, while climate-related deaths have been declining strongly for 70 years, non-climate deaths have not seen a similar decline, and should probably get more of our attention.

Source: The International Disaster Database,

 

The population quadruples and yet “climate disaster” deaths drop by 90%.

Clearly, more taxes are needed, more Paris summits, more carbon credits, stronger enforcement of the Kyoto Protocols …. or we will never survive.

Oh, wait, what? “our increased wealth and adaptive capacity has vastly outdone any negative impact from climate”.

Well, that doesn’t fit the narrative; especially since increased wealth seems to be directly related to increased use of hydrocarbon based energy sources.


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WH is a pale, stale, male who does not believe all the doom and gloom climate nonsense so enjoys generating CO2 that the plants need to grow by driving his MG.

To read my previous articles click on my name in blue.

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