Housing crisis likely to worsen with Kiwibuild

Newshub ?reports: quote.

First home buyers, you might want to look away because things are still bleak – the housing crisis going to get worse before it gets better.

The Government’s flagship KiwiBuild policy aims to meet the huge demand for new homes that is driving the housing crisis.

But documents obtained by Newshub show that, even if KiwiBuild targets are achieved in the next few years, it won’t even scratch the surface of the shortage. In fact, the shortage of homes is actually expected to grow. end quote.

Time to overhaul the Resource Management Act. Time to force councils to release more land for housing, and to get rid of some of their most ridiculous rules. The last government had the political capital to do some of this in their first 2 terms, but they failed. Now this government needs to do exactly that… but they won’t. quote.

The documents show that just to accommodate population increase over the next two years, we need to build 40,000 houses a year – but it’s likely only 30,000 will be built per year.

That means even if the Government hits its target of 6,000 KiwiBuild homes over the next two years, the housing shortfall which is currently 71,000 won’t fall at all – in fact it’s expected to increase to 85,000. end quote.

Yes, because it is a moving target. I heard someone on Talkback the other day arguing that each time a landlord sells a house, a family gets to buy their first home, and so there is no difference to the number of people housed. And that may be true of a static market. But the housing market is never static. quote.

Despite that advice Housing Minister Phil Twyford is adamant he can turn it around.

“I would hope in the next few years, let’s say two or three years, we’ll see that shortfall whittled away by the supply that is in the pipeline,” he says.

As a consequence of the shortage, housing will become more expensive. end quote.

Dream on. Until the government does something about the number of immigrants pouring through the doors, the housing shortage is not going to go away. So in 2 or 3 years, things will be worse. quote.

“Ideally we would have started on this work five years ago but we are where we are I think we’ve got alongside KiwiBuild a whole raft of other policies that are designed to reign in demand,” Mr Twyford says. end quote.

Would that be anything to do with nine years of neglect, Phil? quote.

“We’re not going to crack this tomorrow but the foundations have been well and truly laid to turn this crisis around,” Mr Twyford says.

This is terrible news for first home buyers – but it’s also terrible for the Government.

If these predictions eventuate it means they’ll head into the next election not only having made no dent in the housing shortage but actually having it get worse under their watch. end quote.

And this is the most likely outcome. It will be interesting watching them spin this a second time. After all, ‘nine years of neglect’ can only work for so long.