Tony Blair on Trump’s setback in the House

Trump campaign rally photo credit Washington Times

A very good Whaleoil commentary on the results of America’s mid-term election by Lushington D Brady can be read here.

The House of Representatives is where American legislation is formulated, so losing control to the Democrats in two months time gives them an opportunity to try and hinder Trump’s reforms, which will be more annoying than anything because Trump controls Senate approval. Quote.

The House of Representatives, which reliably churned out hard-line immigration legislation, Obamacare repeal and steep cuts to social programmes under Republican rule – even though many of the bills died in the Senate – will now start offering up progressive priorities.

First on the list, according to the likely Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, is a package of government ethics and election reform measures.” End of quote.

Luckily there is a silver lining for Trump in his loss of control of the House which is that: quote.

[Trump will] have someone to blame if the economy takes a turn for the worse (and, given business cycle realities, it might). He’s got a ready-made explanation for why he can’t get anything done in the next two years – and a pitch for what needs to change in the next election.

Day in and day out, he’ll have a set of clear political opponents to contrast himself with.” End of quote.

 

Tony Blair

Tony Blair recognised this too, saying: quote.

I think sometimes [Trump] will try and work with the Democrats and trap them into an argument if they are not going to work with him and the other thing he could do – I have seen this with other American presidents – is if you lose the House at the midterms, and it can block your legislation, the advantage is that you can play off that.

If the Democrats blocked too much legislation, Mr Trump could simply turn to the electorate and accuse them of being wreckers.

“You could say to the constituents ‘I want to do all of these things but they won’t work with me.’ So, I think that poses a challenge for the Democrats.”

The danger for them was a politics-weary public thinking they were just “going after Trump”.” End of quote.

The Democrats have threatened to instigate impeachment of the president because this requires only a simple majority in the House. However, this first step in trying to remove Trump from office is dependent on evidence of wrong doing and unlikely to succeed because Senate approval is needed.

Tony Blair said: quote.

Because a change in Congress means they are going to have the ability to investigate, to inquire, to come after him, and after his people.”

But the results suggested trouble lay ahead for the Democrats – both due to their natural inclination to block the passage of legislation in the House of Representatives and because of the relatively strong Republican performance.

“I think if I was the Democrats this morning I would be doing some head-scratching … if you look at previous presidents’ midterms, like Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010 … it’s not actually that bad a result for Donald Trump.”

Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost control of the House in their first term in office and went on to win re-election. History, serving as a guide, predicted this would probably be a bad night for the president.

History also indicates that while the road may be rocky, better days could be ahead.” End of quote.

Nothing like a good ol’ skirmish to motivate Donald Trump to entertain the voters.  If nothing else, the lead up to the US 2020 elections will be very interesting indeed.


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The subject evoked in the collage is the debating of political issues with friends in a public place

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Glass and bottle of Suze (after 18 November 1912)
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