Three polls & three very different results


According to the One News poll National is doing really well under the leadership of Simon Bridges, up 3% to 46%. In contrast, Labour’s pollster UMR had National on 37% and National’s pollster Curia had them at 41%.

One point worth noting about the One News poll is that it had a high proportion of undecideds, 10%, and of those who refused to answer, 3%. In other words, 13% of the electorate still have not made up their minds.

However to be fair to National they have managed to get in a few good hits on Labour especially around the Sroubek disaster.

In the preferred prime minister stakes Jacinda  Ardern has dropped 3% from 42% to 39%.

Simon Bridges has remained at 7%

MP Judith Collins

Judith Collins is now only 1% behind him on 6%

Winston Peters remains at 4%

According to David Farrar on Kiwi Blog, if the One News poll represented an actual election result: quote.

NZ First is out of Parliament and the Greens are hanging on just a fraction of a percent. The Greens usually get fewer votes than in the polls as their younger support base has lower turnout. So in fact this poll indicates both support partners are in trouble. This explains why the Government has suddenly started talking about lowering the threshold from 5% to 4%.

In terms of seats, assuming the Greens are at 5% and not just rounded up, the seats are:

National 58
Labour 54
Greens 7

So the Government has the smallest possible majority of 61 to 59. end quote.


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