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Polling advice for National MPs

The National party

Earlier this morning I wrote about ‘Sick’ Todd McClay’s poll presentation to National’s caucus.

This post is dedicated to the 50 National MPs that don’t have access to the weekly polling information as it comes through on email. Whaleoil readers should send a link to their local National MP (including “fucking useless” Maureen Pugh) so they are forearmed for caucus today.

Polling, for very good reasons, is kept close. Only the most senior MPs and staff get a look at Farrar’s numbers. Other than ‘Sick’ Todd, only Bridges, Bennett, Adams, and Collins get the polling. Add on a few staff and consultants, and that’s the tight group. Not even the wider front bench are trusted with the full report containing raw numbers.

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Simon has had an interest in campaigning since the 1980 Presidential Campaign, and has followed campaigns closely since then. His first campaign was getting a 4th former successfully elected to a school Board of Trustees. He was harassed by people who thought it should have been a 7th former and learned that campaigners need thick skins.

 

In 2000 & 2001 Simon completed a Master of Arts in Politics through Otago University, with Prof Bob Catley, a former ALP Member of Parliament, as his supervisor. Bob’s direct approach to campaigns taught Simon a huge amount about professionalism, staying focused and winning.

Simon has been involved in a large number of campaigns for selection, general elections, local body elections, ending monopolies and opposing public projects. He does not comment on specific campaigns other than to use anecdotes to illustrate points.

Simon works with a small number of campaign professionals and outsources work where others have a superior skill set in specific areas.

National’s polling released to caucus today

Polling

National’s caucus meets today after a two week recess. ‘Sick’ Todd McClay, the replacement for Steve Joyce, will present the latest polling numbers.

Presenting polling is an art form, and Steve Joyce was the master at it. The view of the leadership’s success is dependent on this 5 or 10 minutes when a slideshow of crucial information is put before the troops.

The stakes are high. Present too much information, and the MPs will know too much and be able to question decisions made at the top. Present too little and they will think they’re not being given the respect they deserve.

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Simon has had an interest in campaigning since the 1980 Presidential Campaign, and has followed campaigns closely since then. His first campaign was getting a 4th former successfully elected to a school Board of Trustees. He was harassed by people who thought it should have been a 7th former and learned that campaigners need thick skins.

 

In 2000 & 2001 Simon completed a Master of Arts in Politics through Otago University, with Prof Bob Catley, a former ALP Member of Parliament, as his supervisor. Bob’s direct approach to campaigns taught Simon a huge amount about professionalism, staying focused and winning.

Simon has been involved in a large number of campaigns for selection, general elections, local body elections, ending monopolies and opposing public projects. He does not comment on specific campaigns other than to use anecdotes to illustrate points.

Simon works with a small number of campaign professionals and outsources work where others have a superior skill set in specific areas.

Can Simon O’Connor win the Mayoralty?

National leader Simon Bridges and National MP Simon O’Connor

National’s Tamaki MP Simon O’Connor has declared he is considering a run for the Auckland Mayoralty. He has yet to commit to running and faces some pretty significant problems in running a successful campaign.

Not a Dominant Candidate

O’Connor is a worthy soul, but he is not someone who has set the world on fire in Wellington and is not talked of as a heavyweight member of a future National Government.

This lack of dominance is unlikely to intimidate right-wing candidates out of the race, with John Palino and Mark Thomas both considering running again. Unless O’Connor can chase out right-wing candidates he will face the problem of vote splitting. In a tight race, this could be the difference between winning and losing.

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Simon has had an interest in campaigning since the 1980 Presidential Campaign, and has followed campaigns closely since then. His first campaign was getting a 4th former successfully elected to a school Board of Trustees. He was harassed by people who thought it should have been a 7th former and learned that campaigners need thick skins.

 

In 2000 & 2001 Simon completed a Master of Arts in Politics through Otago University, with Prof Bob Catley, a former ALP Member of Parliament, as his supervisor. Bob’s direct approach to campaigns taught Simon a huge amount about professionalism, staying focused and winning.

Simon has been involved in a large number of campaigns for selection, general elections, local body elections, ending monopolies and opposing public projects. He does not comment on specific campaigns other than to use anecdotes to illustrate points.

Simon works with a small number of campaign professionals and outsources work where others have a superior skill set in specific areas.

Incite Politics

How National should handle Jacinda

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Incite Politics

What to follow for the US Midterms

The US Midterm elections are this Tuesday, effectively Wednesday our time. The usual bullshit comes from the punditry about what is going to happen and why. Fortunately, it is relatively easy to rebut these arguments with data . . .

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Incite Politics

Can Bridges hide behind National’s high poll numbers

It is an open secret that Simon Bridges has extremely negative net favourability ratings. Last week Chris Trotter mentioned figures of -16% in Labours internals, and -25% in National’s internals. These numbers are consistent with the numbers Cam & I have been hearing over the last few months.

Simon Bridges has been saying that his personal popularity doesn’t matter because National is polling so well. This is an absolutely disgraceful and negligent concept. If National had a half competent leader who was even moderately popular they would be significantly higher in the polls . . .

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Incite Politics

Review – Ayes to the Left: “The collapse of the centre left”

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Incite Politics

Is the Maori seat battle worth It?

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Incite Politics

National’s boring, no good conference

The National Party conference last weekend was a conference for the Key era. Key was personally popular, had fantastic poll ratings and was extremely well known. Current Leader Simon Bridges is not well known, not well liked and has poor poll ratings.

In the past National have been governed by a desire to win over the swing voters in the middle. These are usually women, predominantly 30-45 and they are concerned that National are uncaring and unsympathetic. So policies, campaigns, slogans and messaging has targeted this group at the expense of trying to turn out the National Party base . . .

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Incite Politics

Review: ‘Talking Politics – the 1970s’

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