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Incite Politics

Can Bridges hide behind National’s high poll numbers

It is an open secret that Simon Bridges has extremely negative net favourability ratings. Last week Chris Trotter mentioned figures of -16% in Labours internals, and -25% in National’s internals. These numbers are consistent with the numbers Cam & I have been hearing over the last few months.

Simon Bridges has been saying that his personal popularity doesn’t matter because National is polling so well. This is an absolutely disgraceful and negligent concept. If National had a half competent leader who was even moderately popular they would be significantly higher in the polls . . .

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Review – Ayes to the Left: “The collapse of the centre left”

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Is the Maori seat battle worth It?

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National’s boring, no good conference

The National Party conference last weekend was a conference for the Key era. Key was personally popular, had fantastic poll ratings and was extremely well known. Current Leader Simon Bridges is not well known, not well liked and has poor poll ratings.

In the past National have been governed by a desire to win over the swing voters in the middle. These are usually women, predominantly 30-45 and they are concerned that National are uncaring and unsympathetic. So policies, campaigns, slogans and messaging has targeted this group at the expense of trying to turn out the National Party base . . .

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Review: ‘Talking Politics – the 1970s’

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A playbook for holding marginal seats

Good MPs hold marginal seats. No matter what their personality type, party, reputation in parliament or political leanings they keep winning because they work hard and connect with the community.

Hard work is the common factor that a good local MP shares. All good local MPs work hard in their electorate, and are well known for working hard. This means they are out and about in their community constantly, and constantly visible and available to their voters.

Ruth Dyson holds Port Hills by a substantial margin. She wins votes from people who are right wingers because they know she works . . .

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What makes a good local MP?

Even in the MMP environment a good local MP makes a difference. Electorate MPs have twice the budget of list MPs working the same area, and list MPs have way less credibility than electorate MPs. It seems reasonable to assume that a good local MP and a good local campaign increase the all-important party vote – especially since a high-ranking National party person told me, many years ago, this was what the evidence showed.

There are three really good local MPs worth considering: Stu Nash in Napier, Nick Smith in Nelson and Ruth Dyson in Port Hills.   Read more »

Simon has had an interest in campaigning since the 1980 Presidential Campaign, and has followed campaigns closely since then. His first campaign was getting a 4th former successfully elected to a school Board of Trustees. He was harassed by people who thought it should have been a 7th former and learned that campaigners need thick skins.

 

In 2000 & 2001 Simon completed a Master of Arts in Politics through Otago University, with Prof Bob Catley, a former ALP Member of Parliament, as his supervisor. Bob’s direct approach to campaigns taught Simon a huge amount about professionalism, staying focused and winning.

Simon has been involved in a large number of campaigns for selection, general elections, local body elections, ending monopolies and opposing public projects. He does not comment on specific campaigns other than to use anecdotes to illustrate points.

Simon works with a small number of campaign professionals and outsources work where others have a superior skill set in specific areas.

Incite Politics

Evidence-based campaigning & the failure of TOP and Gareth Morgan

On the question of “Evidence Based Campaigning” Gareth had no credible answer. He said something about it was his money so he wanted value for money, then proceeded to depart from the question and make all sorts of excuses for making up campaigning as he went along.

I had a chat to one of Gareth’s offsiders who recognised Gareth had not answered my question. I explained that campaigning is a multibillion dollar industry in the United States, and thoroughly researched so nothing needs to be made up. The response was “We have spent hundreds of thousands on campaign experts . . .

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Incite Politics

Review: ‘Yes We (Still) Can’ by Dan Pfeiffer

The Decade of Obama (2007-2017) was one of massive change that rewrote the rules of politics in ways we are only now beginning to understand (which is why we all got 2016 wrong). Yes We (Still) Can looks at how Obama navigated the forces that allowed Trump to win the White House to become one of the most consequential presidents in American history, and how those on the left can come out on top, both in the US and globally . . .

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Incite Politics

Lusk: Bridges needs mending

I went along to see Simon Bridges speak to a public meeting in Hastings last Friday. He performed adequately, but showed some relatively major flaws that were frustrating to watch. His message was relatively tight, even though it was not a real call to action. His message was masked by a wall of noise where he used far to many words to get across relatively simple points.

The feeling I got from the meeting was that Bridges has failed to use his nine years in parliament to prepare properly for being leader. He has not taken the time to work . . .

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