Bill Rowling

A lesson from history for Bill English

Our commenters are observant of history, more so than our media.

A question for the history buffs:

When was the last time (if ever) a PM in NZ won a subsequent election having replaced the incumbent PM within the preceding term?

I can think of Mike Moore and Jenny Shipley – both didn’t succeed.

Not sure about the earlier ones

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Josie Pagani on Andrew Little’s challenges

Josie Pagani has some sound advice for Andrew Little.

I bet he doesn’t listen though, but he really needs to.

How many times have we seen shots of Labour party leaders declaring unity while standing in front of caucus members, smiling the kind of smile you produce by sucking air through your teeth?

Labour doesn’t need more protests of unity. It needs more open debate.

People used to join the Labour party for the policy fights. A contest of ideas was how you sorted ?good ideas from bad. Achievements like paid parental leave and the nuclear free policy were achieved only after advocates won the argument; Unity was earned by debate, not by shutting debate down and pretending there was no diversity of opinion on these issues.

You can’t have a contest of ideas unless you accept into the fold people with a range of views, and celebrate ideological breadth. Bill Rowling and David Lange were both early sceptics of the nuclear free policy; yet today publicly arguing for a minority position within the party is mistaken for disloyalty.

So Andrew Little?s first challenge is to change this culture.

That is so true. Labour has this tug the forelock, doff the cloth cap, kneel in obeisance?to the leader mentality that was beaten into them by Helen Clark and her stasi-like control of internal party debate. Those attitudes now need to be beaten out of them.

The 600,000 people who voted Labour a few months ago had nothing to do with this leadership contest. Most didn’t care because the election purported to be a contest between fifty shades of beige: ??fairness? and ?opportunity for all? as if anyone in Labour is in favour of unfairness and opportunity only for a wealthy few.

The exception was David Parker and Andrew Little differing over capital gains tax and the retirement age. Andrew Little wants to jettison Labour’s election policies on those issues. He will now have to respond to Parker’s question – if not a CGT, then what? Not forgetting the CGT is more popular in the polls than Labour right now.

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The far left say Cunliffe is no Bill Rowling…in a bad way

You know things are bad when you are being compared to Bill Rowling…the man Robert Muldoon once described as ‘a shiver looking for a spine to run down’.

The hard left are saying that David Cunliffe is no Bill Rowling…and they aren’t being positive.

HIS SUPPORTERS say that David Cunliffe is the man to lead Labour? away from neoliberalism. According to The Daily Blog’s? Martyn Bradbury, for instance,? ‘the establishment have gone romper stomper on Cunliffe?s desire to break with 30 years of neoliberalism.’

And, like Bradbury, blogger and columnist Chris Trotter? is of the opinion that ‘left wing’ Cunliffe is a target of right wing conspiratorial forces within Labour. Bradbury calls them the ABC’s (Anyone But Cunliffe).

The problem for Bradbury and Trotter though is two fold. First of all they have actually have no concrete evidence there is a conspiracy and are seemingly? hell bent in engaging in endless speculation where the facts are few and far between.

The second problem with this view is that David Cunliffe isn’t the left wing politician that Bradbury and Trotter keep on insisting that he is.

The reality is that David Cunliffe? is not so much the ‘change’ candidate, but a politician who will deliver more of the same neoliberal policies that both National? and Labour governments have followed over the past 30 years.

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David Cunliffe simply isn’t believeable

David Cunliffe has stated he told the truth, he didn’t lie, when he said he had never met with Donghua Liu and had never advocated on his behalf in immigration matters.

Yet he wrote a letter…this is the first line:


How do his explanations, and remember explaining in this case is definitely losing, but how do his explanations hold up to scrutiny when his very first line states “I have been approached by my constituent…”.

An approach implies a meeting. An approach implies a communication or explanation of the plight of “his constituent”. And yet David Cunliffe maintains he told the truth.

How can this be?

Of course David Cunliffe could say the “approach” was via email…but this can’t possibly be true. No MP I know, and I know an awful lot of current and past MPs across the political divide, would write a letter like that based on an email or a phone call.? Read more »

Russell Brown on Labour’s propensity to aim for their feet

shoot-self-in-foot copy

Pots, pans and pannier bags blogger Russell Brown blogs about Labour’s dreadful week last week, almost entirely self inflicted.

I really don?t think Labour leader David Cunliffe had a cunning plan to hide the fine print print of his party?s Best Start policy from the public last week. Because, frankly, making a statement about how many families would be covered by the baby bonus that is contradicted by the policy paper you?ve posted on the internet is just too?dumb?to be a cunning plan.

Even Patrick Gower, who kicked off the story with?a blog post?declaring that Labour had been ?deliberately misleading? and ?dishonest? in not being clear that families already in receipt of paid parental leave (which Labour is promising to extend to six months) would not be eligible for the newborn payment of $60 a week subsequently started referring to it as a mistake. (After all, if you?re going to perform a bait-and-switch, it?s customary to wait until you?re safely elected, not do it on the same day.)

Allowing double-dipping would have have been inappropriate ? indeed, that was the first criticism aired about the new policy by David Farrrar, when he thought that?s what the policy said. But although the URL for the full policy document had been noted in the material given out to journalists, the limit on eligibility wasn?t mentioned in the printed material or Cunliffe?s speech.

Thus, John Key and his ministers have had a week to smugly declare that Cunliffe couldn?t be taken at his word.? Read more »

Collins crushing on Contenders

Judith Collins guest blogs about what she calls the three Amigos in the dance of the desperates.

I grew up Labour ? in the days of Norm Kirk and the more forgettable Bill Rowling. ?I knew David Lange ? having chosen to intern in his Mangere Electorate Office while at Law School.

So I can say that to see the self indulgent warbling of Labour?s Three Amigos ?as they troop around the country promising anything to anyone (with the exception of Shane who has threatened only bad things to the PM) will be a mildly sad sight to those who still willingly pay their $10 to join the Labour Party.

Political parties should always be about their members but this strange and foolish exhibition of faked friendship and grandiose schemes has been nothing more than embarrassing.? Read more »

Why do unionists lie?

Watch this video from this morning on The Nation.

After Jami-lee Ross has his bit to say about his bill they let Darien Fenton have a crack and she lies right from the get go about Ports of Auckland.

She calls that dispute a lock-out when it wasn’t. It started as a strike and only became a lock-out near the end after some violent scenes at the gates of the port. ? Read more »

Labour?s leadership woes – Guest Post

What a shambles.??What a disgrace.

Labour?s circular firing squad reveals many things about the state of that party.??Firstly it reveals a lack of character on the part of its leader, a man incapable of leading by example, by stature, or by design.??Secondly it reveals a lack of cohesion between the caucus and its wider constituent bodies.??Thirdly it reveals the jealousies that exist at all levels of the party.

Shearer?s ritual dismissal of Cunliffe is not a new strategy.??Shearer and his lieutenants Trevor Mallard and David Parker have taken a leaf out of Julia Gillard?s book.??When faced with destabilisation from Kevin Rudd, Gillard wheeled out her caucus surrogates to denounce Rudd as a demagogue unfit to lead his party or his country.??Whereas Gillard had Wayne Swan, Simon Crean and Nicola Roxon, Shearer had Hipkins and Faafoi front the media to denounce Cunliffe as a destabilising force within the caucus.

Next Shearer demanded endorsement at the point of a gun, no debate, no dissent.??Having achieved ?unanimous? endorsement from his colleague, Shearer then dismissed Cunliffe to the back bench.??In effect Cunliffe is now the excuse for low opinion polls, a man who is to serve as toilet paper for Shearer?s failed leadership, languishing at the bottom of the Labour Party?s political long-drop.

The problem with this scenario however is Cunliffe alone is not to blame.??Labour has yet to move to a level of political support it realised when it lost office in 2008.??This is extraordinary.??Students of history will know Bill Rowling lost the 1975 election, but outpolled Robert Muldoon in 1978.??Mike Moore led Labour to a landslide defeat in 1990, but he came within one seat of winning in 1993.

Shearer leads a party approaching its fifth year in opposition and he shows no sign of leading a recovery.??Relying of a coalition of friends based on Russel Norman and Hone Harawira is a declaration of defeat, the conclusion of a failure of leadership that he Shearer?s responsibility and Shearer?s alone.

The leader of the Labour Party is incompetent, mangles his words, struggles with basic policy concepts, and has little or no feel for human behaviour.??How does he expect his diminishing band of party members to raise money and knock on doors when he has just thrown their preferred candidate for leader under the wheel of a bus?

And Shearer need not think his so-called KiwiBuild policy will make a blind bit of difference.??Communism-meets-lotto housing based on cheap homes situated on cheap land around train stations is hardly going to motivated 200,000 mortgage-paying voters to switch their party vote from National to Labour.

Cunliffe is no better off today than he was last week.??Yes he has been demoted off the front bench, but in a caucus of 34 led by David Shearer, it was never likely that Cunliffe was going to feature in a government any time soon.??Once Shearer accommodates Norman, Turei, Harawira, Sue Bradford, and a mandatory quota of feminist unionists and others from the Rainbow sector, what role would a white heterosexual male possibly have in a future Labour-led government?

However Cunliffe alone deserves the odium that he is coping.??A weak-kneed to Shearer?s ultimatum is a disappointing end.??Yes, Cunliffe should not have hedged at the weekend conference; the smart thing would have been to publicly endorse Shearer there and then.??But having been called on to front up, Cunliffe should have done just that and tested the resolve of the Labour caucus.??Having lost, he could have then resigned and moved to the back bench rather than being dumped by a political featherweight.

Cunliffe has been unwise to rely upon the likes of Charles Chauvel, Moana Mackey and Louisa Wall.??None of his core supporters represent the aspirations of mortgageville New Zealand, and none of them were likely to have the fortitude to go through the fire on behalf of their candidate.

Cunliffe is a vain and flawed man, and someone who is deserves to be disliked by his colleagues.??But Shearer is ten times worse, a leader who seeks strategic direction from Trevor Mallard.

Well might Labour members throw up their hands in horror.??As John Key rightly points out, how can they run the country if they can?t even run a conference?

The correct response now is for Labour?s rank and file to force all MPs to face selection contests.??A contest of ideas is the only way to force its caucus to align with the party that carries it.

David Shearer – The New Bill Rowling

Dr Raymond Miller pulls no punches on David Shearer’s botched opportunity on?Q+A/Um?at the weekend.

Most cruel of all: “he seem to me a very reluctant kind of Leader in the Bill Rowling mode”.

Armstrong on Shearer

? NZ Herald

John Armstrong writes about David Shearer’s horror week:

If there were any lingering doubts about whether David Shearer’s political honeymoon is finally over, they were expunged by what has been little short of the week from hell for the Labour leader.

Two opinion polls last Sunday contained morale-sapping rebuffs for Labour with the gains the party was confident it had made on National since last year’s election seemingly melting away.

Thankfully the Roy Morgan poll came out last night and cooled down the willingness of caucus to knife him. God forbid Labour changes to someone else.

The biggest killer of a party is ill-disipline.

In a clear breach of Labour caucus protocol to keep arguments in-house, the party’s Mangere MP Su’a William Sio then publicly bagged the gay marriage bill sponsored by his neighbouring MP and colleague Louisa Wall as likely to cost Labour heaps of votes in south Auckland.

That was quickly followed by the surfacing of apparent renewed hostility in some quarters of the caucus towards David Cunliffe, who lost out to Shearer in last December’s contest for the leadership.

The off-the-record remarks of a couple of unnamed senior MPs carried on TV3’s website produced a feeding frenzy on the political blogs, leaving Labour activists deeply disturbed the party was again doing its dirty washing in public but confused as to whether Cunliffe, who has been on holiday overseas, was actually mounting a coup against Shearer.

Cunliffe isn’t mounting a coup. You can’t charge forward with zero back up. The EPMU is locked in behind Shearer for some reason, probably because they see him as a seat warmer for Little. It is Robertson that Shearer should watch out for.

What is not in question is that the ructions completely overshadowed Shearer’s midweek launch of a sustained campaign by Labour to win back the “heartland” – the provincial cities and towns where elections are won and lost.

The launch was the culmination of weeks of careful planning and extensive research by Shearer’s already-stretched staff. Copious amounts of official data were collected and collated to measure the progress in every region – or rather the lack of it – across a number of economic and social indicators following more than three years of a National Administration.

Labour is hoping the material will jolt voters out of their seeming sense of resignation that while things are not that crash hot in economic terms, they could be a lot worse and it is better to stick to the status quo.

It is bizarre that Shearer is tourin National’s heartland. And Armstrong is wrong about where elections are won and lost…that is in Auckland.

Leaders of the Opposition are always hostage to the polls. The very real danger for Shearer is that repetition of the results of last Sunday’s polls will see the “Mr Invisible” title becoming impossible for him to shake off.

Other unsuccessful Leaders of the Opposition – Bill Rowling, Jim McLay and Bill English – were handicapped by their intellect and reasonableness which made it difficult for them to find fault with everything their opponent said or did.

The net result of that syndrome is the leader suddenly finds himself or herself less than 100 per cent confident of his or her own party’s policy or position. The doubt is immediately apparent in hesitation in the leader’s voice and visible in his or her body language, all of which is conveyed in cruel detail by television which demands and gets instant judgement from the watching voter.

The thankless job of Leader of the Opposition requires seeing everything in black and white terms and delivering simple, short and very direct messages.

Shearer knows that. But Labour has a tendency to overcomplicate things. Shearer needs to take a few risks to avoid being stereotyped likewise. He must hammer a few stakes in the ground, some of which will not be always to his party’s liking.

He has already copped criticism from within for a recent speech attacking those on welfare who are not “pulling their weight” and are “ripping off the system”.

Shearer’s play at being Act leader, or even trying out for Paula Bennett’s replacement has angered Labour’s based who think bludgers can do no wrong and need to be showered with cash. However his major problem is precisely what Armstrong says…that he is perceieved…no not as the case may be, as the Invisible Man.

Labour are in terrible trouble. Let’s see what happens next week to further salt the wounds.