Colin James

Poll of polls shows worrying trend for the left: they are steadily losing ground

Re-shuffling tired old dog-eared cards in a dodgy deck isn’t going to produce a winning hand unfortunately.

Colin James at RadioNZ explains:

Closing in on the end of the year, the RNZ Poll of Polls is close to where it was shortly after the beginning: Labour up a bit and National down a bit, but National still with a handy lead over Labour and the Greens combined.

There was a brief time midyear when, amidst bad news on the economy which temporarily softened consumer confidence, Labour-plus-Greens headed National. But that was quickly reversed, and the readings of economic confidence and whether the country was on the right or wrong track, firmed up again through the spring.

Labour optimists might argue that there has been a 15-month downward trend in National’s lead but, if so, it is not the sort of trend that by this time next year will be heralding a looming victory with the Greens in 2017.

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Poll of Poll analysis: no time for complacency

Colin James has been averaging out all the polls, and it shows that a small even is capable of making David Cunliffe’s dreams come true. ?He starts with this punch to the face:

National’s polling average may have peaked during July at 52.5% in the four polls up to mid-July. By end-July it was at 50.3%. That is still a very healthy figure under MMP but if National sheds only 4% by election day, it cannot count on a third term, even with help from ACT, United Future and the Maori party.

At the comparable time before the last election National was averaging around 56%. It dropped 9 percentage points from there to 47.3% at the election.

Complacency and assumption are looming huge on the horizon.


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Can Grant Robertson be Labour’s next leader?



Colin James seems to think so:

Robertson?s opportunity is to inject that thinking here and start to make Labour relevant, not in the context of Thursday?s budget but by laying the groundwork for a far-reaching post-election reshaping of economic and social policy (and incidentally, by doing the rounds of regions, business and unions, possibly strengthening a future claim to be leader).

If Cunliffe loses the election he will go.

There are too many people who don?t like him to allow him to stay.

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Colin James on Cunliffe

Colin James joins the extending narrative that David Cunliffe can’t win.

James isn’t so crass as to say that out loud, but a read between the lines shows it clearly.

David Cunliffe has just under six months to build the sort of credibility for a Labour-Greens coalition that pulls some voters across from National?s side and some non-voters in from the cold.

In his six months as leader Cunliffe, first, got only a short-lived bump in opinion polls and then in February-early March took Labour back to its David Shearer low. His biggest publicity recently has been for leadership stumbles.

And those stumbles are real stumbles, rather than Shearer’s mumbles.

First, Cunliffe chose to run Labour?s innovative children policy as a cash handout when its real value is a focus on children?s physical experience in the womb and nutritional, emotional and cognitive experiences in the early years of life. That is, he highlighted the palliative of a dole to parents over investment in children to give even the disadvantaged a close-to-equal opportunity to be full citizens as adults. And he did not say the palliative would be discounted for parental leave cash.

National got two free hits. It could say, first, Labour was sneaky and, second, would be old-style tax-and-spend when an edgy global economy mandates fiscal caution.

One down. Second, he ran a line about super-rich Key being out of touch because he lives in a leafy suburb. A more self-aware Cunliffe would have remembered attacks in the leadership contest that he lives in a nice house in a leafy suburb while promoting a ?red? Labour. Another free hit for National.

Two down. Then he had to own up to an anonymous trust to (lavishly) fund his leadership campaign, thereby undermining Labour?s criticism of National?s anonymous election funders and John Banks? troubles with contributions to his 2010 mayoral campaign. Insiders say Cunliffe had to be persuaded to be open about the trust so that it wouldn?t fester all the way to election day.? Read more »

Cunners makes a splash…well more of a drip really

David Cunliffe performs the miracle of fish and loaves to feed the starving masses

David Cunliffe performs the miracle of fish and loaves to feed the starving masses

David Cunliffe is way behind in the latest poll for preferred Prime Minister. I suspect that Labour won;t have got a bounce at all in the poll announced on one News tonight.

New Labour leader David Cunliffe remains well behind his opponent John Key as preferred prime minister though he has received a significant boost since his promotion, according to a new poll.

The poll by TVNZ’s Q and A programme showed Key had 42 per cent support, up one, while Cunliffe – who has only been in the position for one week – trailed well behind, on 12 per cent, up 10 points.? Read more »

Please Labour, keep Sue Moroney talking about the Man Ban

Sue Moroney was The Nation, explaining the Man Ban policy….please Labour, please, keep Sue Moroney talking on this.

Chris Trotter has some very good points that fortunately Labour will ignore.

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Good on ya Cindy

? Colin James

Sometimes left wingers get things right. When they do they need to be supported before they rush back to doing stupid things again. Colin James highlights a bloody good play on welfare.

Generation-Y Ardern’s role is to recast social assistance policy. She has been pushing the child-centred policy which Labour curiously neglected in the election and has been gathering a group to rethink “welfare”, which she is calling “social security”, thereby reviving the original 1930s notion of reciprocity.

About time someone hammered the idea that welfare came with responsibilities as well as rights.

This idea may not have the low rat cunning of something Russel Norman would come up with but it is a smart play that positions Labour to the right of National on dole bludgers. Traditional working class Labour voters who left Labour because it became too gay and too liberal elite can start thinking about coming back.

Quote of the Day

From Colin James’s Otago Daily Times column (not online)

Here National and Winston Peters (whose appeal now goes wider than to “oldies) have more to say to those people than Labour. The Engineers Union’s comparatively well-paid members are as likely to find common cause with National’s policies as with Labour’s. Labour has over the past 40 years become the party of the margins: the very-low-paid, Polynesian commoners, the disabled, gays, feminists.

Colin James needs to take a tea break or retire

Veteran political correspondent Colin James continues with his hagiography of Simon Power, giving him the coveted politician of the year title and going on about leadership and other nonsense. When I read Colin’s article I was sick, just a little bit, in my mouth.

James is a veteran. Veterans should know that simply being the wettest most liberal member of the National caucus doesn?t make an MP leadership material.

So to someone who, as a candidate in 1999, saw Mr English as a model; someone with gravitas far beyond his 40 years and a huge work capacity; in charge of the single economic market with Australia; unafraid to take on the establishment where it is most established, in the law; scoffed at as naive or callow by his critics but valued by small investors for his determination to fix laws which allowed the Feltex shenanigans and finance companies’ misdeeds; a family man and genuinely nice guy; declared a young global leader by the World Economic Forum and off to Harvard briefly in March.

Lets think through some of these points. Bill English as a model? This means destined to win 21% if the party is silly enough to elect him leader. Hard work? That is just given, if you don?t work hard you should be sent back to being a third rate provincial conveyancy lawyer. Genuinely nice guy? News to most of the caucus and just about all of the party who he has never, ever done a single thing for out of altruism.

Then readers would be advised to carefully think about some of FIGJAM‘s other achievements. Having the nickname FIGJAM stick is going to be exceptionally bad news for anyone aspiring to be leader of a party. It is a well deserved nickname, earned only through a degree of ego-mania only found in the politically na?ve.

FIGJAM has also managed to alienate every blogger or internet commentator in the country with his stupid attempt to regulate the internet. Good luck FIGJAM, somehow an anti-FIGJAM campaign seems to be the topic of every bloggers drinks in the country, ensuring that the new media will make next year uncomfortable for you. Maybe FIGJAM, you could take a step back and think through who is going to be the media that counts in a few years when the papers go tits up.

Then FIGJAM did a deal with his political opponents over election reform, managing to draw rebuke from the National Party president who is not known to rebuke anyone due to fear of having to take a position first. FIGJAM involved opponents in a shoddy deal to restrict freedom of speech, yet did not talk to his own party on their views.

Colin James is undoubtably going to get pensioned off at some stage soon, and editors reading his latest piece should speed up the process as he is obviously out of touch. There is no way FIGJAM is going to be leader of the National Party because he has failed to make friends in caucus with enough people to get close to winning a ballot. In a year of hard work FIGJAM has had a major brain melt, doing nothing at all to appeal to anyone who is not in the rarified are of the beltway. Put FIGJAM in front of an audience of swing voters and you have a certain vote for Labour.

The other thing about Simon Power is his fear of the media unless they are in a tightly controlled locked-down studio situation where he can sit behind a desk. Look through his media appearances and he likes to be sitting behind a desk. He is afraid especially of the television medium, he should also be afraid of right wing bloggers.

Remove the Burqa from our Justice System

I blogged on this case just the other day. Now the victim has spoken out. If I was her I’d just name the creep, it’d be a brave judge to direct the jury to find her guilty of breaching name suppression when she is the victim.

A Wairarapa teenager, who wanted her stepfather named after he filmed her from a peephole as she showered, says a judge’s decision to grant the man permanent name suppression is not justice.
”I wanted everyone in the community to know what he did and what he’s capable of doing,” the girl told the Times-Age.

The self-employed man, 47, was granted final suppression at the Masterton District Court on Thursday by Judge Bruce Davidson, who said identifying him would be ”wrong”, would identify the victim and would only satisfy ”the prurient interests of the media”.

The stepfather was also sentenced to pay the girl $2000 in emotional harm reparation and $1500 in court costs.

”He pretty much got let off with a slap on the wrist,” she said. ”It changed my whole life in many ways. I find it hard to trust males, it’s affected my confidence and my health, I now suffer depression, I’ve lost weight. I have lots of stress-related symptoms and anxiety attacks,” she said.

In 2006, the man waited in a cupboard for the girl, then 13, and filmed her through a peephole for nearly 20 minutes.

”For somebody who has done what he has done, and has not been told that he cannot be around any young girls by himself is appalling,” she said.

The man admitted to police he had planned the filming and said he had ”always enjoyed a good relationship with the victim and that when she had begun to physically mature he found himself attracted to her”.
The stepfather had begun a relationship with the girl’s mother in the late 1990s.

Nice guy, leers after his step-daughter, invades her privacy and then gets a judge to hide his name under the burqa of name suppression. It is a travesty that Judge Bruce Davidson ignored a victims request, it is a travesty that he thinks he should be in a position to protect sex offender from the full consequences of his actions and it is a travesty that we have a burqa in place over our justice system that protects criminals and allows victims to be be victimised all over again.

Judge Bruce Davidson - Pedobear Approved

Judge Bruce Davidson - Pedobear Approved

Yet Simon “Pedobear” Power has done nothing on this issue other than sit on a report from another judicial meddler, Geoffrey Palmer that ignores the will of the people.

In just 15 days I get to test this stupid law, including how their can be name suppression, ostensibly to protect the victim, and at the end of a trial process there be no victim who then needs protection and still the name suppression remains in place.

Meanwhile this blog awards Judge Bruce Davidson the Pedobear Seal of Approval for protecting sex offenders instead of victims.

Simon Power professes through his mouthpiece churnalist Colin “Pedobear” James that he wants the justice system to be for the people and by the people, then how about he gets off his chuff and does something about it, instead of clamping down on a non-problem in South Auckland.

If Simon Power won’t do it then let’s have us a Justice Minister who is a wee bit more qualified than some two bit conveyancing lawyer from a small country town in the job. I tell you what, i am seriously thinking of running a “Pedobear Endorsed” campaign in Rangitikei next election to sticker up all of Simon’s signs. I have the inclination, just need a donor for the stickers.