Coup

I’ll tell you something you don’t know about Fiji

Whenever my kids tell me something that I already know my sarcastic response is always ” tell me something I don’t know.”  Recently the pair of them started responding to  my sarcasm with a fun fact that I didn’t know.  It has now become a family joke and a challenge for the kids to come up with interesting facts that I have never heard of before.

The first ever  fun fact that my daughter told me was that female kangaroos have  three vaginas.

Since this is a political blog  my fun fact for today  is political.  On the weekend we were having a political discussion at the dinner table about Fiji and Cameron explained to us the difference between a coup and a revolution. To be honest I had never really thought about the difference before and I was fascinated by the distinction. I will give the answer over the break but first, let’s see  if this is something you don’t know.

What do you think is the difference between a coup and a revolution?

a) Size: A coup is smaller than a revolution

b) Political affiliation: A coup is usually associated with right wing politics and a revolution is usually associated with left wing politics

c) Violence: A coup is more often non- violent hence the saying a ” bloodless coup ” and a revolution is more often extremely violent ie The French Revolution where Aristocrats were guillotined.

d) None of the above

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From the Trenches: Report from the Conservative Party – today’s update [UPDATED]

colin craig hope

So, basically put, yesterday was smoke and mirrors.  Craig created a technical retreat, but doesn’t intend to stand down at all.  He has communicated that to his supporters today.

We’ve run the numbers, and it appears that Colin is not going to go anywhere.  Not unless one of his supporters changes sides between now and the final vote of confidence.

So that really raises the question:  who are these people still backing Colin Craig?   And why do they see benefit in having a party leader who has just paid for someone’s silence in a sexual harassment claim?   Finally, why do these people think that the Conservative Party is best served by Colin Craig?

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13 point bounce if they roll the Cunliffe

Why are they still talking about it?  He’s on holiday… political assassination time

Vernon Small doesn’t mind offering up the knives for the back stabbing either

Some Labour MPs were yesterday privately canvassing leadership options, even at this late stage.

But they believe Labour would be even more severely punished by such an outward sign of panic.

Labour’s focus now has shifted to protecting its vote from further erosion, and preserving the seats of some of its up-and-coming stars, including Andrew Little, seen as a future leadership contender, and former teacher Kelvin Davis.

Even some of Labour’s seasoned hands, including finance spokesman David Parker and frontbench MP Jacinda Ardern, could be at risk of losing their seats in Parliament if party support sank much lower.

At what point will the fragile public patina of calm solidarity tear?   Read more »

Thai coup, will McCully put in place sanctions like with Fiji?

The Thai military has reacted to political instability and conducted their 12th coup since 1932.

Thailand’s military seized power in a bloodless coup, dissolving the government, scrapping the constitution and dispersing groups of protesters from both sides of the country’s political divide who had gathered in Bangkok and raised fears of a violent showdown.

The powerful army chief, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, announced the military takeover in a statement broadcast on national television.

It was followed by additional announcements including a nationwide curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. and an order for 18 government officials – including the ousted prime minister – to report immediately to the country’s new governing military commission.

Soldiers kept a low profile in the center of the capital. But as the curfew approached, troops diverted traffic at key intersections and used armored personnel carriers to block some main roads, including the one in front of the US Embassy.     Read more »

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Mutterings of a coup due to Labour’s own polling

The Labour Party knows the Rogue Morgan poll is a lot of horse droppings.  Their own internal results match those of the National Party’s polling:  Labour is solidly mired below 30% with no signs of any of the Oravida or Maurice Williamson side shows providing any purchase.

David Cunliffe is so incredibly caustic to the Labour Party, they’ve even had David Parker front the Big Tool roll out.

With no discernible difference.

For a while you had to read between the lines a little, but Labour’s private murmurings of a coup are starting to seep through into the media.

Claire Trevett reports

As for Labour, Grant Robertson wanted Cunliffe’s job last September. Last week, things were so fragile he might have been in with a chance. List MPs were doing the numbers as internal polling showed them diving into the low to mid-20s and Cunliffe with stratospherically high negative ratings.

One poll was reported to have Labour only five or six points ahead of the Greens. Emerging from the election as effectively a medium-sized party is no way to celebrate Labour’s centenary. The prospect those List MPs could be looking in the Situations Vacant come October was focusing minds.

There were whispers about the nuclear option of forcing a leadership change, not necessarily to win the election but to try to shore up Labour’s vote from a catastrophic low. Ironically, Cunliffe’s opponents Jones and Robertson may well have stopped those musings turning into a more concrete push. Some had discussed putting Jones up as that last-minute leader because he could have an immediate impact on the polling. Read more »

Map of the Day

map-of-coup-odds

Coup Forecasts

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Fraser House news tips

This just in from Fraser House:

In a bizarre turn of events: Shearer departed to Auckland, just 5 minutes ago calls Tim Barnett to ask if he could also fly up this evening for ‘support’.

Barnett declines; budgetary constraints.  Read more »

Sleeping With The Fishes

After David Shearer’s disappearing act from Parliamentary question time yesterday, and with the tipline humming about a looming Leadership coup inside Labour, I thought this might be appropriate after Shearer’s disastrous week….

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Shearer’s gang or is it the last supper?

The Listener had an article by Trevor Mallard Jane Clifton about ongoing coup against David Shearer.

In it was a brilliant photo that left much un-said.

I thought I’d add some of the things that the photo spoke to me:

Listener - Shearer's Gang Read more »

Colin Espiner explains about coups

Colin Espiner has been around politics a long time, he knows a coup when he sees one.

If you are ever of a mind to stage a coup against your party leader – or your boss, or even your mother – there are two golden rules you must follow.

1: Deny you’re planning a coup

2: See rule one

Yep…which is why Duncan Garner’s source is laying low…except we all know who it was, and so does David Shearer if he is smart…oh wait…he isn’t.

The reason for this is “bleedingly obvious”, as former Labour leader Helen Clark used to say. Since coups are usually plotted in private, and since you really need to make sure you’ve done your numbers before you pick up the knife, you can’t admit to it beforehand.

The ultimate bloodless coup is swift and deadly. The leader doesn’t see it coming until it’s too late to do anything but clear out the desk and start penning the memoir.

The only recent example I can think of where this plan wasn’t followed was the guileless Don Brash, who staggered everyone by freely admitting he wanted to roll former National leader Bill English, who promptly called a leadership vote he expected to win – and lost.

English expected to win because his colleagues had assured him to his face that they’d vote for him. And then voted the other way in the ballot. In other words, they lied like flatfish. Amazing, huh. Politicians lying. Who’d have thought?   Read more »