Digipoll

No Christmas joy for Labour from last Herald poll of year

Despite headlines last night screaming that Andrew Little has risen in the polls, from 13.3% to 16.2% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes he was still 49% behind John Key. But more on the preferred Prime Minister polling in another post.

Matters were a whole lot worse for Labour this morning after the promise of last night’s headlines. They have watched National’s polling remain sky-high and after all their manufactured scandals this year National is still polling at over 50%.

National has finished the first year of its third term in as strong a position as it was a year ago, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

It has the support of 51.3 per cent of voters, up slightly on the last poll in August (50.8) and on the same poll a year ago (50.4).

Prime Minister John Key won a third term in September last year with 47.04 per cent for National.

Labour polled just 25.13 per cent at last year’s election when David Cunliffe was leader. Andrew Little has been leader for only a year but appears to have pulled the party out of the demoralising 20s and into more stable territory, at 31.1, up by 0.1.

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Poll shows Labour’s and Twyford’s ugly legacy: the seed of distrust against Asians has found fertile soil

Digipoll did a poll for a newspaper, and it makes for ugly reading

Credit: Digipoll/A newspaper

Credit: Digipoll/A newspaper

Notice the extremely injurious way this poll was pitched. ?The real problem, according to commentators (and if borne out by still non-existent evidence), is the number or percentage of non-resident purchasers of property. ? But as you can clearly see, A newspaper has simply labelled everyone ‘a foreigner’. Read more »

Poll confirms disaster of Labour’s Chinkygate policy

We're winning I tell you, we're winning

We’re winning I tell you, we’re winning

Labour banked their future on their racist, dog-whistle attack on people with chinky-sounding names buying property.

Unfortunately, contrary to the claims of Andrew Little and Phil Twyford in caucus, this policy is not Labour’s ‘Orewa’. In fact in three polls in a row it is now a confirmed failure.

Don Brash’s ‘Orewa’ speech “resulted in a major surge for the National Party, which had been languishing from an overwhelming defeat at the 2002 election. From 28% in the polls a month before the speech, the National Party jumped to 45% two weeks after it: ten points ahead of?Labour.

Nothing of the sort has happened to Labour, and in one poll they actually went backwards.

A newspaper has released their Digipoll this morning and there is a slight, but within the margin of error, increase for Labour, while National remains able to govern alone. ? Read more »

Dirty Media went all in over ponytail and boost Nats poll ratings

heraldpoll-apr-2015

The media, especially NZME. went all in over the ponytail story. All they achieved was pushing National back over 50% in the latest poll.

Half of the poll was taken before the story blew up…imagine how high the Nats would have been if they’d taken all of the poll after the story.

Overall National polled 51 per cent, marginally up on party support in December from 50.4.

Its support among women, 45.4 per cent, is the same as it was in December. ?? Read more »

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How to put positive spin on dreadful numbers

The NZ Herald has some new numbers from their polling that looks at some key demographics.

But watch how they spin the numbers.

A breakdown of the latest Herald Digipoll results according to gender, location and age shows where the parties are strongest and where they are gaining and losing ground.

Labour’s popularity with male voters has increased, with 21.2 per cent of men supporting it for the party vote, compared to 18.4 per cent last week.

The party’s support among women hasn’t changed much, with 27.8 per cent this week, compared to 28.9 per cent last week.

Those numbers are simply dreadful for Labour. As I said earlier in the week Labour’s internal polling was showing them with a one in front of it and it looks like Digipoll has found the same.

Sure it has increased to barely over 20% and in the territory of Bill English’s dreadful 2002 result. Even thenumbers for women are bad and lower than when David Shearer led Labour. The Herald spins this as positive…Labour’s popularity amongst men is rising…when it is around 20% it can only but rise! ? Read more »

Labour’s worst poll result in 15 years in Digipoll

 

We are voting positive #forabetternz...for National

We are voting positive #forabetternz…for National

The latest Herald Digipoll is out and The Cunliffe experiment is shown for what it is…abject failure.

Labour’s support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.

Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.

With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.

On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent.? Read more »

Labour’s poll disasters continue, latest Herald Digipoll out and Nats are over 50%

The David Cunliffe experiment has failed and Labour continues to languish below rating that former leader David Shearer enjoyed.

The latest NZ Herald Digipoll has been released and it clearly shows Labour has no traction…and that a carbon tax is an electoral killer for the Greens.

partyVotesMain_jun2014

The poll has National on 50.4 per cent (down 0.4), Labour on 30.5 (up 1), and the Green Party on 10.7 (down 2.4).

Of the smaller parties, NZ First is on 3.6 (no change), the Conservative Party 1.5 (up 0.2), Maori Party 0.8 (up 0.6) and Act on 0.7 (down 0.1). United Future is on 0.1 (up from zero).

Internet Mana got 1.4 – the combined total of 0.5% for Mana, the 0.2% for Internet Party and the 0.7% who said Internet Mana.

There were 12.2 per cent undecided voters.

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Herald poll vs Whaleoil poll

The Herald-Digipoll results came out this morning. ?As you may recall, we ran our own survey a little while ago so we could compare.

The Digipoll had 750 responses

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March 2014 Herald-Digipoll

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Labour poll-axed in Digipoll

in big twubble

The latest Herald/Digipoll is out and the reading isn’t at all good for David Cunliffe or for Labour.

Labour has a two in the front of their number.

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the?Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

National could govern alone with 50.8 per cent if the poll were translated to an election result.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent.? Read more »

Herald Digipoll

The last Herald Digipoll before the election is released this morning. Again it shows Labour continues to slide rather than close the gap. Phil Goff told us to wait and see.

National: 50.9 (up 1 point in a week)
Labour 28 (down 1.1)
Greens 11.8 (down 0.8)
NZ First 5.2 (up 0.3)
Act 1.8 (up 0.1)
Conservatives 1.3 (up 0.7)
Maori Party 0.4 (down 0.3)
Mana 0.3 (down 0.1)
United Future 0 (down 0.1)

On this poll it shows again why National needs John Banks to win Epsom. Winston Peters is also looming there but int he range that sets up my dream scenario that would see his party fall below the threshold on special votes.

Today’s poll also throws up a bizarre possible outcome – National winning more than 50 per cent of the party vote but still needing Act, the Maori Party or United Future to give it a majority in Parliament.

This could happen if today’s poll results were translated to votes.

The revival of New Zealand First – which National won’t deal with – could make the survival of Act crucial.

The Maori Party could be in the box seat to negotiate a confidence and supply agreement to give National a cushion of comfort if Act and United Future don’t make it.

The reason National could get a majority of party votes tomorrow but not a majority of seats in Parliament is the overhang factor.

If today’s poll figures were translated to votes, United Future, the Maori Party and Mana would get more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement.

When that happens, the size of Parliament expands beyond 120 seats, and the parties are allowed to keep the extra seats.

In this case, the “overhang” seats would take Parliament to 126 seats.

In that scenario, a Government would need 64 seats for a majority and in today’s poll, National would have 63 seats – based on the assumption that Act, Mana, United Future and the Maori Party will keep their electorate seats.

Once again we see another bizarre feature of MMP and another reason why we need to kick it in the guts. Overhang distorts the “perfect” system supporters say it is and in this case distorts it by 6 seats the largest distortion ever. Vote for Change in the referendum and Vote for Sm to get rid of the silly excesses of MMP.

Can you all now see why Labour, NZ First, Greens and 9 trade unions support MMP? The system benefits them. They look set to control?parliament?despite not one of them securing anything more than 30% of the vote and in some case far less.

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