Digipoll results

The Herald Digipoll is out and sees National drop. This poll seems out of kilter with the others, but we will see what Roy Morgan and Tv3 say after the weekend.

There really hasn’t been anything that would warrant a drop of that size.

Perhaps more worrying, for Labour, is that even though National dropped so too did they.

ACT has risen so that they can deliver two MPs.

This poll will serve as a wake up call for National’s base. It should help hose down any complacency.

Labour though will be emboldened to continue with the nasty. They will ignore all other polls and use this poll as a validation of the nasty.

I’m looking forward to seeing the rest of their playbook. We haven’t yet seen their age old claims of a “hidden agenda”, or calling John Key “cancerous and corrosive”, or maybe visit a sheep that needs shearer while calling Maori “haters and wreckers”.

Perhaps now National may also take the referendum seriously. Labour and the Greens are campaigning hard, along with all the major unions, to retain MMP. Perhaps that is a really good clue for the dim-bulbs. In all of my life I have known one thing. If assorted socialists, unions and control freaks think something is a good idea then it is best to do the opposite.

When your political opponents want something so bad they are prepared to spend large amounts of money on it only a fool stays silent. Only fool sits grinning as your opponents ride roughshod over you and your party. They play for keeps, it is time National did too.


Herald/Digipoll out, Bad for Labour

The latest NZ Herald/Digipoll is out. This is a far more reputable poll with a good history and certainly not like some other dodgy polls out there.

The bad news for Labour is that the people aren’t listening:

Labour’s support has slipped in the first week of the election campaign to below 30 per cent, in the latest DigiPoll survey released this afternoon.

Labour is on 29.1 per cent, the first time Labour has been in the 20s in the 12 years the?Herald?has been running DigiPoll surveys.

The poll will be running weekly until the election.

Labour’s fall of 1.2 points over the week may not be much of a fall but it will be a psychological blow for the party to fall below 30 per cent.

…Mr Key is preferred Preferred Prime Minister on 70.6 per cent, the same as last week, and support for Labour leader Phil Goff has slipped from 13.7 per cent last week to 11.7 this week.

The full results are:

National 54.2 (up 0.7 from last week)
Labour 29.1 (down 1.2)
Greens 10.1 (up 0.6)
Maori Party 1.9 (up 0.7)
NZ First 1.7 (down 1.1)
Conservatives 1.1 (up 1.1)
Act 0.9 (down 0.6)
United Future 0.5 (up 0.4)
Mana 0.1 (no change)

Why doesn't Duck run ads like this?

Two polls have come in and Labour are in trouble this close to the election.

The Roy Morgan poll shows them barely moving and the gap between National and Labour at 29.5%

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key?s National-led Government is at 60% (up 0.5%). Support for Key?s National Party is 54% (up 1%), the Maori Party 3% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Opposition Parties is at 40% (down 0.5%) ? Labour Party 30.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 5.5% (down 1.5% – the lowest since the 2005 General election), New Zealand First 3.5% (up 1%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

The Herald/Digipoll shows a small recovery for Labour but the gap between Labour and National is still a massive 15.1%. They have improved that is probably their dead cat bounce after the budget.

Labour’s crippled campaign manager needs to do something dramatic. He won’t though probably because he is too busy trying to work out phase two of his underpants stealing campaign plan. The more thought put into trying to understand Labour?s campaign since the last election, the more obvious it is that Duck has adopted the underpants gnome strategy.

Labour?s equivalent of stealing underpants without understanding phase two and how to win votes includes such brilliant policies as:

  1. Opposing ?VSM: ?Duck?doesn’t?realise that while university politics is a fascinating place for young Labour, the rest of the country simply is not interested. It is a bit like trying to get people to watch a game of third grade netball when the Bledisloe Cup is on. No one cares.
  2. GST free fruit and veges: another dumb policy that has so many easy rebuttals. Not the kind of broad policy direction that changes the mood of the nation.
  3. ECE: Free childcare without explaining who pays for it or why it is so important that the middle class require more welfare. Hard to see Duck moving this out of phase two either.
  4. National Standards: The ultimate underpants stealing policy because Labour?s highly competent, well funded irregular force of guerrilla campaigners ? the collective teachers unions of New Zealand ? have wasted so much time opposing something the public are indifferent towards when they could have been campaigning on something that mattered.

The Labour campaign has been totally mismanaged from the very beginning. Deadwood like Mallard and Hodgson are fighting the battles of the 90s, rather than letting the highly competent new MPs like Curran, Nash, Chauvel, Shearer and Robertson change the Labour Party from an underpants stealing operation with no phase two to one that wins votes based on touching New Zealanders on issues that matter to them.

Perhaps he should consider ads like this: