dodgy polls

Horizon Research Busted by Cops, Ctd

Not only has Horizon Research and the Dompost’s shameless manufactured story about public confidence in the Police been busted by the Police Association but not the Police themselves have come out with a strongly worded press statement.

The findings of a recent survey claiming falling public trust in Police were deliberately engineered to mislead the public and bolster a complainant’s case against Police, says Acting Commissioner Viv Rickard.

Mr Rickard said the online survey of 756 adults by Horizon Research conducted over a 40 hour period at the weekend lacked any validity, as the company involved was not independent and had deliberately designed the survey to elicit a biased response.

“The integrity of the survey and the motivation of those behind it must be seriously questioned when the company involved is owned by a representative for individuals involved in a current complaint investigation by Police. There is also evidence their supporters have been actively encouraged through social media to take part in the survey and win cash and prizes.”

Mr Rickard said Police took the matter seriously and had commissioned an independent research organisation to review the Horizon survey. The feedback confirms concerns that the methodology was flawed and the sample would produce a biased result. The results varied considerably from other robust surveys.

They go on to release a proper survey that states:

Mr Rickard said as an organisation committed to continuous improvement, Police welcomed public scrutiny and constructive criticism based on reliable, objective and informed commentary.

“This is why over the last four years, Police have commissioned reputable market research company Gravitas Research and Strategy Ltd, to conduct the Citizens’ Satisfaction Research programme.

“The latest results of the Gravitas survey of 9,706 people released last month shows 77 per cent of New Zealanders continue to have high levels of trust and confidence in Police – up from 72 percent in 2008/2009.”

Mr Rickard said the Gravitas survey conducted detailed interviews with people about their views of Police, their feelings of safety and what their service experience was like if they recently had contact with Police. The interviews were conducted over a period from July 2011 to June 2012.

“When you look at the size, scope and thoroughness of the survey carried out by Gravitas, the findings by Horizon simply don’t stack up to scrutiny. The timing is also highly questionable given that the Dominion Post published the survey findings to coincide with news articles and editorials quoting the complainants who are critical of Police.

“I think most reasonable New Zealanders will therefore see this rather cynical approach for what it is and make up their own mind.

“The quality of the Horizon survey and the strength of the related media coverage by the Dominion Post looks even flimsier when you consider that public satisfaction with Police is at its highest levels and New Zealand crime rates are the lowest on record.

The Dompost and Horizon have ben caught front and centre manufacturing the news.

Horizon Research Busted by Cops

Horizon polls are well-known for being dodgy. But all kinds of questions need to be asked about their latest crap.

The Police Association has uncovered some very questionable issues around this.

The timeline looks like this:

On Saturday the Dom Post prints a biased story slagging the cops by a left-wing SST reject.

Front and centre of the story and leading the charge against the police is “Wellington public relations consultant Iain Morrison”

The outraged Mr Morrison is a colleague of Graeme Colman.

Colman also runs Horizon Research.

By a complete coincidence, on the afternoon of the Dom Post story, Horizon conducts an “independent” poll, with the subject matter bearing a very striking resemblance to the issues raised in the Dom Post.

Later the same afternoon the Facebook page set up by Morrison’s people to attack the police invites all comers to sign up to take part in the Horizon “research”.

“Sign up and do the poll and our mates at Horizon Research will put you in the draw to win an Ipad 3g and $1000 cash!”

So, independent research? A reliable poll? Manipulation? Pre-planned nastiness? A campaign to hoodwink the media and the public?

This isn’t just dodgy.

This stinks.

Mickey Mouse for East Coast Bays Poll

This is how to run a poll that makes Mickey Mouse a front runner against Murray McCully in East Coast Bays.

1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?

2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?

3. Have you heard of the Mickey Mouse Party?

4. Have you heard of Mickey Mouse?

Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ‘Mickey Mouse is the leader of the Mickey Mouse Party of New Zealand. He is a mouse with high personal ethics and unlike Murray McCully has never worn a moustache. Mickey has the endorsement of Helen Clark, the Dalai Lama, Margaret Thatcher, Chuck Norris, Robyn Malcolm and Ronald Reagan for the East Coast Bays electorate”.

5. If Mickey were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Mickey to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?

Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Mickey were asked:

6 . Who do you intend to vote for?