Election 2011

Who leaked the results?

I have known for a few days the results of the key electorates. I shouldn’t have. The people who told me were extremely low level electorate based people as well, meaning the leaks were very widespread. I even had journalists contacting me on Thursday asking for comments on numbers in various electorates, so even they knew the numbers, especially in Waitakere. Certainly the Herald knew enough to run a story on Friday morning before any other news outlet.

The results in Waitakere, Christchurch Central, Auckland Central and Waimakariri were widely known well before 2pm when the Electoral Commission released them.

The question is though, who leaked them. Some have even made money off the leaking of results, most notably in North Shore.

I think the Electoral Commission needs to investigate. They certainly should be asking iPredict to provide details of the trades for North Shore and any other electorates with similar trading spikes. In fact iPredict should volunteer the information lest they be accused of running shonky, corrupt and manipulated market.

 

Final Results posted

The Electoral Commission has released their final results.

As expected the Greens have picked up a seat and National dropped one, such are the vagaries of MMP and special votes.

The biggest upset is National taking Christchurch Central off Lord Burns of Marlborough, who because of his low list ranking will now have to reitre to his country estate. He could still ask for judicial recount.

Paula Bennett has lost Waitakere by 11 votes. This will likely result in a judicial recount also, but if I was the spiteful type, and I am a bit I would look at a electoral petition in Waitakere. I would do so for a number of reasons. Firstly, there will be numerous strange votes and overturning just 11 votes should be a piece of cake. Secondly if there was any dodgy stuff going on in Waitakere with the unions and dodgy voting and dodgy spending then you could get Carmel Sepuloni on a corrupt practice charge ensuring she would never return again.

Farrar has some boring statistics about the results.

The election in cups of tea

via the tipline

Campaign Redux

I said this was the moment that Phil Goff lost the campaign. Was I right? I think so. Phil Goff’s tenuous grip on honesty and integrity when it came to managing the country’s finances came unstuck in that one awful moment:

Winners and Losers, Ctd

The 9516 voters for the Aoteroa Legalise Cannabis Party.

Not really sure if they are winners or losers. Perhaps when they get back from getting over the munchies they can let me know.

Election Night Results thread

Blogging will be intermittant but I will endeavour to update some key results.

Suggest you check the Election Results Website for up to the minute results.

Here is the timeline the Electoral Commission will be working towards.

Targets for release of the preliminary election results are:

by 8.30pm all advance vote results, including the Referendum on the Voting System
by 10.00pm General Election results from 50% of polling places
by 11.30pm< General Election results from 100% of polling places

Polls closed

The polls have closed now.

All day I have been receiving reports and photos of illegal hoardings of Labour and Greens.

In Pakuranga there was a Greens sign right outside Howick Intermediate one of the most heavily trafficked booths.

In Epsom on Market Road a large Green sign is still up.

In Botany there were Labour signs up everywhere.

via the tipline:

Out doing the gardens this morning and a guy walked around our street dropping pamphlets. When we went to our mail box we found he was delivering Mana Party election material. We are located in Massey West Auckland

It seems the elft wing have been breaking the law all election and continued right on through E-Day. I hope they are all prosecuted.

My election dream result

With all the comment over the past week about the polls and supposed tanking of National I think I will add some comment a week out from the election to explain what I would like to see.

On election night this would be my dream scenario.

I would want to see national with enough to govern alone. Around 51% would be good enough.

I want to see Labour at about 22%, enough to really clean out their caucus so they are left with no option but to reform their constitution and candidate selection processes and prove to old tuskers that their time is at an end. A score that low should be enough to have them seriously crippled for at least another cycle.

I want the Greens to have their best result ever, and for John Key to reach across the spectrum and offer them something in the “spirit of cooperation”.

I want my mate John Banks to win Epsom and for act to have enough to bring in Catherine Isaac and David Seymour. That may be a tall order but hey this is my wish list. If they fall one short then the other three can knife Don, he’s used to it and then “for the good of the country” David Seymour can come in.

The last thing that I want to see is NZ First get 5.01% on the night. I want to see that so Winston Peters can crow and skite and show off and then choke as the specials come and and they drop below the threshold.

We will see soon enough.

The defining moment of an election

I suspect that we will look back on this election campaign and think to ourselves that the defining moment of the election was on Wednesday 2 November 2011 at about 8:30 PM.

That was the moment that Phil Goff lost the election.

In what should have been a little known town hall meeting in provincial city instead turned into the most defining moment of the election. Just 600 people attended the meeting and it wasn’t broadcast on television. Instead it was live streamed to the internet, people around the country followed comments of media commentators and attendees on Twitter and the exposure turned out to be devastating for Phil Goff.

Only political tragics would have been watching the streaming from Stuff’s website. Indeed I was having a birthday dinner. But the moment came and as recorded by Claire Trevett it was devastating:

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By rights this debate should have slipped under the radar, but because of the internet and tools that allow streaming, tools like Twitter and Facebook that moment turned the election despite what actually happened in a town hall in Christchurch. It matter not that Phil Goff may have won the first half, or the second half or even the debate, what matters is what has been reported, that Phil Goff couldn’t answer a simple question about how he was going to pay for his promises.

That was the defining moment and it is perpelxing. Why didn’t Phil Goff know? Why wasn’t he prepared?

National had signalled they were going to take apart Labour on the numbers. They had launched a website specifically for this purpose. At some stage in a debate paying for election bribes was going to come up and for some inexplicable reason Phil Goff was left flapping and gasping like a trout on the river bank.

Think about that for a moment. Phil Goff can usually recite numerous facts and figures, and dates and details. He should be able to, he is wanting to be Prime Minsiter. He has 27 years in aprliament, he is an old hand at this.

And yet he was flummoxed. He floundered, and he flapped. Why was Phil Goff so under prepared for that one simple question. Why was he not able to show us the money?

I am fast coming to the conclusion that he was set up for the fall. Not by National but by his own party. He was clearly fed wrong information. If that is the case then that is treason from within Labour. When you think about it there can really be no other reason. But the treason appears to have continued for two more days.

Firstly Phil Goff was so woefully prepared for financial questions, that is so out of character it must have been deliberate. then it took two more days to even come close to producing the figures, and when they produced the figures they were still wrong, the messaging was all over the place and the infographics were dreadful. It looked like a rush job, it looked like Phil Goff was inept. If, as David Cunliffe said, that the release of the figures was always planned for that Friday then why was it so appalling badly handled. The infographic debacle shows they weren’t prepared.

But I just can’t believe that Phil Goff is that inept. He was a competent minister, acknowledged by all sides of the political spectrum to be in command of his portfolios. I can’t believe it was a brain-fart. Usually I go for cock-up over conspiracy, but in this case I can’t.

The only saving grace for Phil Goff in all of this is that the person most responsible for stuffing him up on Wednesday night cacked in his own nest on Friday night with an intemperate remark about the Corrections Minister.

But that one moment when John Key demanded that Phil Goff “Show me the money” should be recorded as the defining moment of the election campaign. It destroyed Phil Goff’s and Labour’s economic credibility and it focussed the election campaign onto the finances of the country and to the large election promises from labour when the cupboard is bare.

 

The first debate

Not often I agree with Scott Yorke:

Lefties will say Goff trounced Key, and those on the right will point to the viewers’ text poll and say it shows John Key won.

But who really won the leaders debate?

Tactically I think it was a draw. Neither leader managed to really nail the other. But in the broader scheme of things I suspect Key will be a happier man than Goff. Labour had to win this debate, and had to do something to damage the credibility and record of John Key.  However, Key held his ground.

What really annoyed me were the self-appointed experts opining part-way through the debate on who was winning and who was saying what. Have we become such imbeciles in this country, and has political discourse in this country been so dumbed down, that we need to be told what to think? I prefer to make my own mind up, rather than be spoon-fed an opinion by an “expert” whose analysis is utterly superficial.

Debates like this are all about personalities. We didn’t really learn much about either party or their policies. What we did learn is that Key still has a nice smile, and that his tie looked very smart. We also learned that Goff likes to point. He probably doesn’t want to point quite as much next time. His righteous anger is understandable, but it probably won’t play well with those who love Key.

If I was Phil Goff and Labour I would listen more to John Pagani (he did a post but has deleted it), than to Brian Edwards. Unfortunately Brian Edwards set Goff up for a fall and based on that performance fall he did. Unfortunately for Goff and Labour I don’t think John Pagani is too enamoured with the Goffice.

If Goff fan boys like John Hartevelt felt Goff won by a nose then the general public will think he got slaughtered:

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