election 2017

“Labour strategists are more confident than ever that Andrew Little can become prime minister”

More confident than ever they may be.  But they aren’t actually confident that he will.  Hooton writes

What my analysis overlooked is that while the [Memorandum of Understanding between Labour and Green] did indeed act as an endorsement by Labour of the Greens, it was also an endorsement by the Greens of Labour. At least since their truce following the genetic-modification wars of the early 2000s, both Labour and the Greens have run strategies of trying to hug the other to death. Events since the MoU suggest the red team may have the stronger chokehold.

That chokehold is only getting tighter, with private polling since Labour’s elevation of 36-year-old urban liberal Jacinda Ardern to the deputy leadership indicating an immediate gain to Labour but at the expense of their Green partners rather than National.

The confidence seems to come from the fact that Labour’s strategy is to bleed the Green vote.  And to be honest, it is the only way to get there with Winston’s NZ First.   Read more »

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And tell me Andrew, why would Winston pick up the phone in the first place?

In an interview on The Nation with that awful disgrace of a reporter, Lisa Owen, Andrew Little told us all about how serious he is in having a government with the Green party.

They will be called first and then some time later he will call Winston.

There is a massive flaw with both those statements.  Read more »

The pork barrel overfloweth in election year

The Government’s books are better than expected, with a $1.1 billion OBEGAL surplus for the seven months to January, Finance Minister Steven Joyce says.

“Stronger tax revenues as a result of a healthier economy are flowing through to the Government’s financial performance,” Mr Joyce says.

Tax revenues year-to-date are 3.8 per cent more than they were predicted to be in Budget 2016.

“Company tax in particular is higher than expected, and that reflects the good performance of New Zealand companies in what is still an uncertain world,” Mr Joyce says.

The $1.1 billion OBEGAL surplus compares to Treasury’s forecast of a $517 million surplus at the start of the fiscal year.

Core Crown expenses for the seven months to January were $234 million lower than the Budget forecast, reflecting the Government’s ongoing commitment to prudent spending.

Mr Joyce says that a number of variables made the final out-turn for the full financial year hard to predict. Read more »

More bad news… for Labour

Guest post

Last week we showed how National were in trouble [link to www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/02/why-national-are-in-trouble/] comparing the poll history of the Colmar Brunton poll take in February of an election year.

Conclusion: Colmar Brunton Poll gives National false hope.

Now let’s see what history tells us about the latest Roy Morgan Poll and the Labour Party.
Back in 2008 while Labour was in Government they polled 36.5% in the February Roy Morgan poll, later that year lost the general election with 34% of the vote.

In February 2011, Roy Morgan had them at 35%, but they only received 27.5% of the vote in the general election.

In February 2014, they were at 33% but only received 25% of the vote in the general election.
Every time they have polled higher in February than the general election, with a drop off of up to 8%.

Read more »

POLL: Will National get your 2017 Party Vote?

Whaleoil will run a  monthly poll to see where those who supported National during the 2014 election are likely to go this year.   Hopefully we will be able to detect any shifts throughout the year leading up to September.

If you did not vote for National in 2014, and you do intend to do so for 2017, then this poll isn’t for you.  We are looking to measure the “restlessness” among 2014 National supporters.    Read more »

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Ohariu, this is your Captain speaking

The Ohariu electorate has been very much in the news in recent days. There has been the usual amount of breathless hype and exaggeration from political commentators about what they think is going on. Most of it has been wildly inaccurate, ridiculously sensational, and so devoid of any factual basis that it could not even be described as “alternative” facts.

So, leaving aside as largely irrelevant the argument about whether the Greens and Labour have done a deal in the electorate (of course, it is a deal – to claim otherwise is as ignorant as it churlish, but describing it as “dirty” is simply puerile), and in the absence of much informed comment, here are some basic facts about Ohariu.

At the last election, just under 54% of Ohariu voters voted for either the UnitedFuture or National Party electorate candidates, with around 37% supporting the UnitedFuture candidate. About 42% supported either the Green or Labour candidates. On the party votes side, just over 51% of voters supported National and UnitedFuture, with about 38% backing Labour and the Greens. Read more »

After the election, will ACT be the tail that wags the National dog?

David Seymour

ACT will push the Government hard to follow through on tax cuts and road pricing, says party leader David Seymour.

“Steven Joyce made all the right noises on tax cuts anda demand-based road pricing in his speech today. This comes after constant pressure from ACT to adopt these ideas.

“Unfortunately, National has a depressing record of campaigning from the right but governing from the left. They talk about respecting taxpayers and then introduce new taxes. They talk about cutting red tape but then introduce new flawed regulations. Read more »

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Survey reveals National Party vote cannot be taken for granted

Our Whaleoil survey on Thursday had 1195 responses in one day. One thousand responses is a good statistical sample of our conservative/libertarian readership. By this morning the number of responses had increased to 1255. It is a targeted sample as most of our readers are National Party supporters so what is revealed in this survey should be taken very seriously by National Party HQ. Given the results, the Act Party and New Zealand First should also be pricking up their ears as a lost vote for National could be a gained vote for them. The Act Party, especially at this stage, appears the most likely recipient of votes lost by National.

The Party vote is the vote most at risk for the National Party as only 31% of our readers confirmed that they will definitely be giving National their party vote compared to 46% that will definitely be giving them their electorate vote. The Act Party has 7% who will definitely be giving them their party vote and NZ First 2%. Where it gets really interesting is the number of people who say that they are undecided or that it is likely or highly likely that these two minor parties will get their party vote. When you take those numbers into consideration National and Bill English will see that they cannot take people who have voted for them previously under a John Key led government for granted.

Read more »

Garner boils the election down to six points

ECONOMY
Bill Clinton’s advisers coined the phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid” when he took on George Bush Snr in 1992. And it’s so true. Is our economy broken? Are the fundamentals stuffed? The answer is no. And Labour knows it, hence why it’s started attacking English as a “follower” and not a leader. The party needs something to stick. Figures show people are in jobs, although pay rises and wage growth are low. The numbers of sole parents on benefits is at its lowest level since 1988. Growth is good at 3 per cent. It’s far from a train wreck. Tourism is pumping, construction is booming, people want to live here. Watch the Budget for a lolly scramble: English has money to spend and he’ll throw the ninth floor Beehive sink at winning a fourth term.

Yes.  The Economy.  That is the minimum requirement.  And National have that one sewn up.

RESULT:  Win to National

HOUSING
While house prices are definitely cooling, Auckland especially still faces a crisis due to a lack of supply and exorbitant, almost criminally high, land prices. Low and middle-income workers are largely locked out of a market that rose too high for too long. If they own a house they have a catastrophically big mortgage and far too much of their income goes towards paying it off. Luckily for them, interest rates have been at record lows – but they are set to rise and that may put even more pressure on homeowners and first-home buyers. National needs to do way more in this area. And that’s an understatement.

Disagree.  Housing has been a beat-up by Labour and the media.  But for every sob story there is another person that made out like a bandit.   It’s mostly preaching to the choir and not an issued that transfers votes from the right to the left.

National had an image problem, but they may just have announced themselves out of it.  The trick is that they can practically do very little, but they had to appear to do enough so they can point back to it and claim they tried.

RESULT:  Draw Read more »

Election 2017: Strike up the band

Opposition parties have a message for the government now the election has been set for September 23 – bring it on.

“We’re ready and raring to go so we can change the government and build a better New Zealand,” said Labour leader Andrew Little.

“We can’t wait to start campaigning on what Kiwis are worried about today – we urgently need to fix the housing crisis to make first homes more affordable, help Kiwis get the health care they need and build a world-class education system.”

The Greens are going to run a joint campaign with Labour and co-leader James Shaw says his party is more energised and better prepared than ever before.

“We have shown what a credible, compassionate, progressive alternative to National looks like,” he said.

“There’s a real feeling for change in our country. Read more »