election day

Why National are in trouble

Guest post

Several commentators and other bloggers are saying the latest Colmar Brunton poll is great for National and the Key/English/McCully effect has made no difference. History tells us otherwise, they are in trouble.

Back in February 2008, National was polling at 54%, in the election they won with 45% of the vote.

In February 2011 and February 2014, National was polling at 51%, in the election they won 47% of the vote.

Every time National has polled high in February but dropped 4% or more each time in the elections.

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Participating (commenting) on Whaleoil today – EXTRA RULES

Even though any breach of the Electoral Act on Whaleoil today will probably be met with a caution at worst, we would like to run a decent show. ?None of our?articles?will breach the rules. ?But people that comment are also required to change what they would normally do to fall within the requirements of the Act.

Failure to adhere to the rules set out here?today?(until the polls close at 7 pm) will result in having your commenting access permanently withdrawn. ?Even if you did it out of ignorance.

There are basically three sources we need to draw our rules from

– What we can do as a publisher of news ?a.k.a. ?restrictions on media

– What we can and can’t do as “social media” – meaning: ?the comments

– General 3rd party rules on election day

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Participating (commenting) on Whaleoil on election day

Even though any breach of the Electoral Act on Whaleoil during election day will probably be met with a caution at worst, we would like to run a decent show. ?None of the blog posts will breach the rules. ?But people that comment are also required to change what they would normally do to fall within the requirements of the Act.

Failure to adhere to the rules set out in this article on Saturday (until the polls close at 7pm) will result in having your commenting access permanently withdrawn. ?Even if you did it out of ignorance.

There are basically three sources we need to draw our rules from

– What we can do as a publisher of news ?a.k.a. ?restrictions on media

– What we can and can’t do as “social media” – meaning: ?the comments

– General 3rd party rules on election day

Read more »

Tagged:

God votes National. Ok, fine, centre-right

From our point of view, it’s a matter of hanging on to a win, any kind of win. ?For the left team, it’s a matter of “what do we have to do to get a break?”. ?After everything that’s gone wrong, from Dirty Politics not sticking to Key and Kim Dotcom’s big reveal becoming a big implode, what else can go wrong?

The weather.

Wild weather predicted for the weekend could discourage voters on election day, taking a toll on the centre-left vote, an expert says.

The MetService has warned of gale-force winds and driving rain for the North Island and snow for the South Island on Saturday.

If the forecast is correct, it would be the first election-day snow since 1984.

AUT social sciences lecturer Dr Kate Nicholls said the conventional wisdom, internationally and locally, was that bad weather dampened voter turnout.

And lower rates of voter participation would damage support for centre-left parties in particular.

“This could be especially damaging for Labour, given that voter turnout was at an all-time low in the 2011 election, continuing a long-term trend and Labour’s base of support is already substantially eroded,” Dr Nicholls said.

Even if the effect isn’t huge, if things are on a knife edge, as David Cunliffe claims and clings to, bad weather may just be enough to keep ten or twenty thousand lefty voters at home. ? Read more »

Labour still can’t do maths; do anything with dates

John Key announces the election date as 20th of September 2014.

Labour responds with

wer

But the answer is 194. ? Read more »