FiveThirtyEight.com

Traditional political models predict Trump will absolutely tank

As an analyst of US politics, Nate Silver has been uncannily accurate and able to embarrass the pros.

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Great Election Prediction Article

Those who have not read anything by Nate Silver before should check his background. He is an impressive guy who had his election predicting blog purchased by the NY Times.

Serious election watchers will love his posts as much as they will love the RCP predictor highlighted earlier. Silver reckons Obama is slightly favored but it slight and something of a toss up due to economic conditions.

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage

By?NATE SILVER

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

Dig deeper and you will find great commentary on different predictors of election races, and what does and does not provide a good predictor.

Easy win for Romney in Nevada

Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucus easily. Nate Silver blogs:

Although the exact margin has yet to be determined, Mitt Romney has been declared the winner in the Nevada caucuses tonight.

It appears that Mr. Romney may slightly outperform some expectations.?Exit polls?showed him winning about 55 percent of the vote in Nevada, versus hisFiveThirtyEight forecast?of 51 percent. So should Representative Ron Paul, who may get closer to 20 percent than the 15 his percent projected by the forecast.

Romney expected to win Florida

Nate Silver reckons there is a 97% chance that Mitt Romney will take out the Florida primary tonight:

The shift away from Newt Gingrich in the Florida polls has been as significant as the one toward him in South Carolina. The first two polls released after South Carolina showed Mr. Gingrich with a lead of 8 and 9 points, respectively. But the news has gotten worse for him almost every day, and he trails Mitt Romney by nearly 15 points in the?final FiveThirtyEight forecast?of the Florida primary.

You can follow his live blog of the Florida primary.

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