Helensville

John Key’s replacement is Chris Penk

Chris Penk has won the selection in Helensville to replace John Key.

Christopher Penk has been selected as National’s candidate for the Helensville electorate at the 2017 General Election.

Mr Penk is a lawyer, and formerly served in both the Royal New Zealand Navy and the Australian Defence Force.

“Helensville is a special electorate that’s had the distinction of being represented by John Key for the last 15 years, so I know I’ve got big shoes to fill running here,” Mr Penk said.   Read more »

Former Auckland Councillor Cameron Brewer has decided not to contest the Helensville selection

The man hotly tipped to seek selection to replace former Prime Minister John Key in the Helensville seat has ruled himself out.

Rodney Local Board member Cameron Brewer says it’s not the right time for him.

“After much consideration and after consulting a lot of people, I have decided I won’t be standing for National Party selection for the seat of Helensville,” Brewer says.

The Helensville Selection is going to be the most open and interesting of all the selections in Auckland. Read more »

Labour’s Helensville candidate busted for anti-semitic Facebook post

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Corie Haddock was Labour’s Helensville candidate at the last election, he also works for Lifewise (more on that later)

On 13 November he posted this anti-semitic message on Facebook.

haddock1

He got busted.   Read more »

A reader emails

corie haddock

This came in last night, I thought I’d share it with readers.

Hi Cam,

Funny story to relate – care of my teenaged daughter.  This morning on the way to school, daughters school bus stopped at Waimauku.  There, opposite the bus stop, on the grass strip in front of the Caltex on SH16 was Corie Haddock – Labour hopeful for the Helensville electorate with 5 or 6 supporters and a couple of children in tow, waving Labour placards at the passing morning traffic.

Said students on the school bus gave the thumbs up as the bus crossed the intersection to park and wait for the pickup.  It was not lost on the students of said electorate that this was a bit of a pathetic turnout and laughter erupted.  Then one teenaged wag stuck his head out the top window opening, such that it is, and yelled at the top of his lungs – NATIONAL!!!    Read more »

Barry Soper locked out from last nights debate, and not at all happy about it

Last night a WOBH camera operator was in attendance at the farce of a debate in Helensville electorate.

He was able to capture the displeasure exhibited by NewstalkZB journalist Barry Soper as he sought entry to the hall.

Note that Patrick Gower seemed able to saunter through the rather aggressive door security.

Soper was undeterred and unleashed that little Rottweiler that still lives inside himself.

Eventually the PM’s handlers arranged to assist him through the door.

Read more »

This is why we can’t have nice things

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supplied

Read more »

Can a Carpet Bagger Win Selection Safe Blue Seat?

The National Party has some safe blue seats coming up for selection in 2014. Hunua and Clutha-Southland are the two safest blue seats in the country, and the candidate selected in these seats will have a long career in parliament without ever having to worry about their majority.

This means carpet baggers looking for a easy seat that takes them straight to Wellington without having to campaign seriously will be buzzing around Hunua and Clutha-Southland like flies around shit. I don’t object to this, opportunists can win, and because National has been so useless at succession planning they do not have a stable of good candidates ready to run in safe blue seats like Waikato, Taranaki-King Country or Clutha Southland.

Carpet baggers can win selections in safe blue seats even if they have little connection to the seat. John Key won Helensville despite not having any real connection to the electorate. Though to be fair that was a head office stitch up of monumental proportions. Maggie Barry won in North Shore when there was no good local. My oldest friend in caucus Scott Simpson won Coromandel despite having no real connection to the electorate other than a bach. The common factor in these seats was the low party membership, meaning the Party HQ could stitch up selection for a chosen candidate.  Read more »

Plane Crash near Helensville [EXCLUSIVE: PHOTO]

TVNZ is reporting a plane has crashed near Helensville:

A light aircraft has crashed in west Auckland today, leaving a passenger with minor injuries, emergency services say. 

The light aircraft crashed near concrete works at West Auckland Airport Parakai, north of Helensville.

Emergency services were called to the scene.  Read more »

Tagged:

More on Dodgy Polls, Ctd

Yesterday I blogged about Colin Craig’s dodgy poll where he talks about 89% of people in Helensville wanting consultation. (Quite apart from the fact that the Conservative Party can’t spell Helensville.)

I contacted Research First to ask about the exact questioning and other pertinent details of Colin Craig’s commissioned poll.

I did this because of the history of their dodgy polls. Commendably their CEO Roger Larkins returned my call and pointed to the full poll results at the Conservative Party website. It appears they have learned a bit from the last foray into manipulating public opinion through dodgy polls and most questions are vastly improved.

However the report tells us something that Colin Craig failed to tell us. Lying by omission, if you will.

You see the polling was not done in just Helensville, rather it was done across two electorates, Helensville and Rodney. Further it was a survey of just 355 respondents…with a margin of error of 5.2%.

To make matters worse the report does not split the 355 respondents by electorate so we have no way of telling how many were in each electorate. Despite demographic breakdown of other details this was omitted. I suspect that is because the vast majotiy of the 355 respondents were actually in Rodney electorate.

If we assume a 50/50 split across electorate then that also makes a major impact on the margin of error, blowing it out to 7.5%.

Colin Craig was intellectually and statistically dishonest to suggest the poll result was just for Helensville electorate. I blame him and not the polling company for this, for even though Research First omitted the demographic split they still highlighted it in the title of the poll.

I am sure David Farrar will look at other questions and details in more detail but for now I want to focus on Question 8. This question is seriously dodgy.

The details are as follows:

By loading up the possible answers in such a manner they were actually forcing a positive outcome better than 66%. It was such a stupid question anyway because if you ask almost everyone if they want to be consulted on something they will almost always say yes. But to ask it and have two positive answers and one negative answer then the pollster, presumably under instruction from their client, have forced respondents to answer in the way the client wanted.

It is dishonest and makes the results for that question statistically irrelevant. The error is further compounded by the dishonest way that Colin Craig presented the results by saying that 89% of Helensville voters want to be consulted. That is actually a lie. The poll was conducted over Rodney and Helensville electorates and no split in results was given, in no way can he take the total figure and apply it just to Helensville.

Colin Craig continues to use dodgy polling results to support dodgy contentions. This is really amateur hour stuff politically and shows that Colin Craig hasn’t learned a thing from his bullshit polling in Rodney and Epsom prior to the last election. He may have a lot of money to burn being stupid but he is a real slow learner.

Oh look another dodgy Colin Craig Poll

Colin Craig has gone back to using his dodgy polling company again…you know the one that said he’d win Epsom…then the one that said he would win Rodney in a landlside, Check out my previous posts on Research First and their seriously dodgy polling methodology.

Craig today defended using the quote, saying it was a reflection of what some voters thought.

”It is certainly the comment that got me thinking where John Key was on this issue and where the electorate was. People express themselves in different ways. I’ve heard lots of people express themselves on this debate in ways that I wouldn’t.”

Helensville was more conservative than other electorates, Craig conceded.

For the first time, Key was not voting in accordance with his electorate on a conscience issue, he said. ”That’s a change in the game.”

Key had voted against civil unions and has said changed his vote to vote against prostitution reform after feedback from his electorate.

The Conservatives hired Research First to poll Helensville voters on the issue of gay marriage and gay adoption.

About 89 per cent said their MP should consult their electorate over conscience votes and vote the way voters wanted them to, it found.

We know all about Colin Craig dodgy polling. Let’s see the questions…I bet they are as loaded as the previous ones.

Colin Craig says dumb things, does dumb things, and is showing that politically he is a muppet.