Of course he’s ahead, he has all the resources of the Media party helping him

There are no surprises in a recently released poll that shows Phil Goff well ahead of anyone else in the race for the Auckland mayoralty.

Phil Goff maintains a commanding lead in the running for Auckland mayor, according to the latest poll.

In the mayoral poll published by the Spinoff website, 38 per cent of respondents supported Goff, with Vic Crone holding second place at 11 per cent.

Six per cent favoured John Palino while 5 per cent picked the youngest candidate of them all, 22-year-old Chloe Swarbrick.

Mark Thomas and Penny Bright both scored 4 per cent.

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Gareth Morgan calls Federated Farmers “retards”

If it is insulting to bag gingers then surely calling Federated Farmers “retards” is worse. Yet that is exactly what Gareth Morgan has done…several times.

It is ok call call them “Federated F*ckwits” and “bludgers” when they do fuckw*t things or bludge, but calling them “retards” is outrageous.

On the way through he also used Federated Farmers logo without permission with these words underneath it, “Federated Farmers – environmental retards?”.  He has since edited that out after getting reminded he had not asked for permission but has left his offensive words highlighted in a text box (pictured right).  

But he also carries on in the body of the post.

What isn’t acceptable however is that a national farming lobby group becomes chief apologist for such a retarded attitude”

“Progressive farmers should form their own lobby group, there’s few benefits being tarred with the brush of environmental retards.”

To see what a poor farmer (according to Gareth) Bruce Wills is, Country Calendar visited his farm mid-year –  where they describe him as a “greenie”.

The cause for Mr Morgan’s anger though, is Federated Farmers exercising their legal right to appeal to the High Court (with HortNZ), about the Environment Court’s decision on Horizon’s One Plan.  The Manawatu river is central.  Labeled as “among the worst in the western world” by the Dominion Post in 2009 and described by Judge Thompson as effectively being in a death spiral in his recent decision, was this week judged by the Ministry for the Environment as being generally safe for swimming (a ‘fair’ rating overall).

Once again Gareth Morgan isn’t in full command of the facts and abusive using people with intellectual disabilities as an insult to farmers. That is shameless and outrageous.

Horizon stinking like a dead fish

Horizon research is in severe damage control mode.

Too late.

Owner Graeme Colman is in the media saying he occasionally works with Wellington PR man Iain Morrison.

Morrison’s company website clearly shows Colman is employed as a senior consultant by Morrison.

To re-cap – Morrison fronted a long and one-sided attack on the Police in the Dom Post on Saturday.

Hours later, Horizon, owned by Colman, initiated a survey with subject matter very similar to the points raised in the Dom Post.

Later that afternoon, the Facebook page set up by Morrison’s fellow anti-Police campaigners urged members to take part in the survey being conducted by “our mates at Horizon research”.

So, here are some important questions:

  • When did Horizon decide to carry out the survey?
  • Why on Saturday?
  • How was the subject matter chosen?
  • Was Iain Morrison informed about the survey?
  • Did he have input into the questions?
  • How did someone know on that campaign group’s Facebook page know it was taking place?
  • Did Colman tell the Dom Post he was connected to Morrison?
  • Did Morrison tell the Dom Post the survey was being carried out that weekend, after the article was published?

Answers please.

Horizon Research Busted by Cops, Ctd

Not only has Horizon Research and the Dompost’s shameless manufactured story about public confidence in the Police been busted by the Police Association but not the Police themselves have come out with a strongly worded press statement.

The findings of a recent survey claiming falling public trust in Police were deliberately engineered to mislead the public and bolster a complainant’s case against Police, says Acting Commissioner Viv Rickard.

Mr Rickard said the online survey of 756 adults by Horizon Research conducted over a 40 hour period at the weekend lacked any validity, as the company involved was not independent and had deliberately designed the survey to elicit a biased response.

“The integrity of the survey and the motivation of those behind it must be seriously questioned when the company involved is owned by a representative for individuals involved in a current complaint investigation by Police. There is also evidence their supporters have been actively encouraged through social media to take part in the survey and win cash and prizes.”

Mr Rickard said Police took the matter seriously and had commissioned an independent research organisation to review the Horizon survey. The feedback confirms concerns that the methodology was flawed and the sample would produce a biased result. The results varied considerably from other robust surveys.

They go on to release a proper survey that states:

Mr Rickard said as an organisation committed to continuous improvement, Police welcomed public scrutiny and constructive criticism based on reliable, objective and informed commentary.

“This is why over the last four years, Police have commissioned reputable market research company Gravitas Research and Strategy Ltd, to conduct the Citizens’ Satisfaction Research programme.

“The latest results of the Gravitas survey of 9,706 people released last month shows 77 per cent of New Zealanders continue to have high levels of trust and confidence in Police – up from 72 percent in 2008/2009.”

Mr Rickard said the Gravitas survey conducted detailed interviews with people about their views of Police, their feelings of safety and what their service experience was like if they recently had contact with Police. The interviews were conducted over a period from July 2011 to June 2012.

“When you look at the size, scope and thoroughness of the survey carried out by Gravitas, the findings by Horizon simply don’t stack up to scrutiny. The timing is also highly questionable given that the Dominion Post published the survey findings to coincide with news articles and editorials quoting the complainants who are critical of Police.

“I think most reasonable New Zealanders will therefore see this rather cynical approach for what it is and make up their own mind.

“The quality of the Horizon survey and the strength of the related media coverage by the Dominion Post looks even flimsier when you consider that public satisfaction with Police is at its highest levels and New Zealand crime rates are the lowest on record.

The Dompost and Horizon have ben caught front and centre manufacturing the news.

Horizon Research Busted by Cops

Horizon polls are well-known for being dodgy. But all kinds of questions need to be asked about their latest crap.

The Police Association has uncovered some very questionable issues around this.

The timeline looks like this:

On Saturday the Dom Post prints a biased story slagging the cops by a left-wing SST reject.

Front and centre of the story and leading the charge against the police is “Wellington public relations consultant Iain Morrison”

The outraged Mr Morrison is a colleague of Graeme Colman.

Colman also runs Horizon Research.

By a complete coincidence, on the afternoon of the Dom Post story, Horizon conducts an “independent” poll, with the subject matter bearing a very striking resemblance to the issues raised in the Dom Post.

Later the same afternoon the Facebook page set up by Morrison’s people to attack the police invites all comers to sign up to take part in the Horizon “research”.

“Sign up and do the poll and our mates at Horizon Research will put you in the draw to win an Ipad 3g and $1000 cash!”

So, independent research? A reliable poll? Manipulation? Pre-planned nastiness? A campaign to hoodwink the media and the public?

This isn’t just dodgy.

This stinks.

Whaleoil Redux 2011 – Q1

Today is the last day of the year and what a year it has been. The chaos and mayhem I created was:

January 2011 – 151 posts

The new year started with yet another case of celebrity name suppression. Martin Devlin had thrown a tanty and decided to bounce on the bonnet of his missus’ car. With the ensuing media frenzy he eventually outed himself.

I called time on the Royal NZ Ballet:

From the latest available published accounts for the Royal NZ Ballet.

For the 2009 year.

Ministry for Culture and Heritage funding – $3,959,000
Sponsorship and donations – $2,010,000
Box office revenue – $2,631,000
Total Revenue  – $8,600,000

On these figures the Royal NZ Ballet bludges $1.50 for every dollar they raise in ticket sales. That’s right, you and I pay $1.50 for every $1.00 some liberal elite wanker pays to sit and watch ballet.

I interviewed Judith Collins for my Summer Series interviews. I am yet to decide if I will do another Summer series.

I outed the Albany Superette for selling P-Pipes. It subsequently was followed in the MSM days later. I next day I got my first legal threat of the year.

On January 9 I highlighted Sunday Star Times and their dodgy polling company Horizon. They never learned from that post and went on to become completely discredited with their methodology and results. It still didn’t stop Radio Live from featuring them, though I understand that Horizon actually paid Mediaworks to do it.

I drove halfway down the Napier-Taupo highway to meet Garth McVicar for my Summer Series interviews. Followed up a few days later with an interview with Trevor Mallard. I doubt he will do another. While in Wellington I also popped in for coffee with Celia Wade-Brown and talked about her victory in the local body elections.

I started asking questions about Len Brown’s 100 things in 100 days. Len Brown starts to desperately look for things to do in his 100 days. On day 79 Len Brown released 52 things he was going to do.

On January 20 I reminded Len Brown about his promise for a referendum on Maori seats. This was before the Maori Statutory Board blew up in his face:

He made this promise throughout the campaign, but has chickened out of a referendum. On Q&A he was trying to buy himself some wriggle room.

On TVNZ’s Q & A yesterday, Mr Brown said a referendum on creating Maori seats on the council “may well” be possible in the next three years

This blog has reminded him of his promise herehere and here.

Brian Rudman felt obliged to attack Len Brown and his failure of the 100 things in 100 days promise.

I had a beer with Chris Trotter for my Summer Series interviews. I also went to the Unite Union bunker and interviewed Matt McCarten.

I asked whether or not Labour was snooping on your emails. This story develops in later months.

I started my battle with the Teachers unions.

The good people at Kaimata Retreat get suspicious of a lying blonde tart and google Pearl Going. They subsequently contact me and I out her re-emergence as a bullshit artist.

After Phil Goff handed in his man card by dying his hair I started a series of hair do suggestions for him.

 February 2011 – 187 posts

Chris Hipkins kicked off the first SMOG of Labour with porn spam on Facebook profile.

On February 2 John Key said no to Winston Peters and set the election date.

Len Brown finally released his full list of 100 useless things he was going to do inside 100 days.

On the 6th of February Len Brown fell for the classic Michael Bloomberg train sting. Jonathan Marshall and a photographer bust Len Brown and his hypocrisy over riding the rails to work.

The pressure built on Len Brown over his little train ride double standard.

I told Nikki Kaye that she could have a gay Mardis Gras but only if the government or council didn’t pay for it.

Michael Wood announced on 11 February that he wanted to ensure that there were no penis lollies in Botany despite the fact that there were no penis lollies in Botany.

Trevor Mallard uses Red Alert to attack Jami-lee Ross as a “Tory lump of lard” and accuses him of being a “nasty piece of work”.

On February 15 I said that Carmel Sepuloni wouldn’t win in Waitakere.

On 16 February I highlighted for the first time the skulduggery that was going on in Rodney electorate for the National party selection.

It was in February that we had a rash of MSM writing articles completely unrelated to Hanover and Mark Hotchin but tied them in in either headlines or the body of the article.

The Rodney Selection skulduggery continued. At this stage it only involved a local and the electorate chair, it was however to go much deeper than this. I then outed the involvement of a former South African white supremacist in the manipulations in the Rodney selections. It took several posts to tell the story.

Having dealt with the local skulduggery in Rodney it then became apparent that that there was two separate cases of skulduggery going down. The rather inept local incident with Brent Robinson and then the involvement of the regional hierarchy in attempting to stack appointed delegates. The Rodney selection was then postponed. It was to get much worse.

Serious muckraking was then deployed against Mark Mitchell. It was run by a sitting board member and involved a journalist as well. Things were getting very murky in Rodney electorate.

March 2011 – 187 posts

The Rodney selection was delayed so an audit of membership could be completed. On 4 March the selection process was cancelled and a new selection processed launched such was the level of skulduggery. A serious miscarriage of justice in selection was averted. The irony is the board member most deeply involved int eh murk now claims credit for halting the selection. This is hugely ironic because it was him that was visiting delegates with printouts of websites, a tactic that was later employed in Coromandel by the same board member on behalf of the same candidate.

The day after Jami-lee Ross won the Botany by-election Phil Goff claimed victory for the Labour party.

Speaking of the Labour party, I helpfully make some suggestions for their coming campaign. They ignored them. We know where that ended up.

Trevor Mallard hits a snag using email.

I leaked an email from Perry Rush of the NZPF outlining how they were going to run a campaign against Anne Tolley.

The very first Txts from New York.

I reviewed my Savage 17HMR from Hamills.

The Accuracy of Horizon Polls, Ctd

Readers may have noticed in the Horizon poll, almost every single minor party is polling way higher than in the other polls?

They have Greens at 14%, other polls at just below 10%

They have NZ First at 7%, other polls at 2%

They have Conservatives at 4%, other polls at 1%

They have ACT at 2.7%, other polls at 1%

They have Mana at 1.8%, other polls at 0.2%

They have United Future at 0.8%, other polls at 0.3%

So why is every minor party except the Maori Party polling two to three times better with Horizon? Obviously because of their brainfart online panels which party activists have been joining up to, to help boost their party. The Horizon poll is about as reliable as a text-in poll on Close Up.

Media who report it should be ashamed.


Horizon’s poll in the Sunday Star Times is a lot different from all the other political polls conducted by polling companies who use a fairly standard methodology that gets a fairly standard set of results.

Horizon reckons New Zealand First is going to get 7% and that National will only narrowly form a government, whereas every other poll reckons National are going to give Labour a hiding and most of Winston’s voters have forgotten who he is as they dribble away quietly in the dull light of an old folk’s home.

Why this poll is so ballsy is like all polling companies Horizon uses political polls to promote its polling business. If the results they come up with are way out on election day companies using Horizons services start looking at them wondering whether the polls Horizon does are actually any good.

If the Horizon polls do bomb expect all the other polling companies sales people to be putting in the hard yards trying to take clients off Horizon. It is a pretty easy pitch – Horizon can’t pick the general election results, our polling company did, do you want your polls to reflect reality or the distorted reality Horizon finds for you.


Fisking silly polls

The Sunday Star Times has taken to using new pollster Horizon regularly. So far it has been with less than honest results.

Horizon’s main problem is their methodology, something that either the Sunday Star Times is willfully ignoring or deliberately encouraging in order to get results that suit them.

Their methodology is certainly exposed when a new blogger, Whowouddathort, shows just how out of step they are.

Rogue poll from Horizon compared with reputable polls

The Sunday Star Times does their credibility no amount of good when they descrie the flawed poll as “a major new poll”.

In the US there was this sort of carry on last year where Rasmussen was so far out that it ruined any meta poll of polls. Rasmussen was eventually taken out for a normal trend line, and compared with the normal, destroying their reputation in the meantime.

…polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

There isn’t a regular poll, even Labour’s own pollster UMR Research,  in the country that has National even remotely close to 40% and certainly not a single pollster except for dodgy Horizon that has Winston Peters corrupt NZ First above 3 %. On that basis alone we can conclude that Horizon has a dodgy methodology and when we add their woefully poor history they can safely be discounted as no better than an online survey company.

Given Horizon’s to produce wildly different polls with no apparent obvious causality one must assume that they are on the fast track to becoming as maligned as Rasmussen is now.

The Sunday Star Times is likewise destroying its remaining, admittedly shallow, reputation as a reliable news source by publishing such rubbish.