Human migration

Restrict immigration? Good idea, let’s start with Islamic immigration

Fairfax reports:

Immigration is set to hit record levels, pushing up house prices over the coming year, but Prime Minister John Key believes immigrants’ skills are needed and enough houses are “in the pipeline” in Auckland to meet the influx.

In their monthly update to ministers yesterday, Treasury officials said net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration in the year ending March was “likely to exceed our [December] Half Year Update forecast of a peak of 52,400”.

Inflows were expected to start easing in the first half of this year, and the impact on house prices and household wealth appeared more subdued in this cycle, possibly because of the concentration of 20-34-year-olds in the numbers.

“However, it is possible that the strength in PLT arrivals recently may begin to impact housing demand more significantly over the coming year,” they warned.

Key said there was no question immigration has some impact on housing.

“Generally, the Reserve Bank takes the view that net migration is positive for the economy but has some spill-over implications.”

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Photo Of The Day

CREDIT: Sim Chi Yin / VII / Courtesy United Photo Industries & Magnum Foundation. “Big Rain” (“da yu” in Mandarin), 21, a KTV lounge worker, decorated his basement room  with a happy display of balloons. He lives in room A12 of a basement beneath Beijing’s north Third Ring Road. Originally from Heilongjiang in China’s northeast, he’s been in Beijing for the past year. He sleeps in the day and wakes up around 7 or 8pm to do his hair at a salon and then grabs a cab to go to work. Giving only his surname Chen, he said: “I’m 1.8 m tall, weigh 120 jin (about 60kg), am male and interested in girls. What else do you want to know?” He was planning to move out. “It’s too humid here,” he grumbled.

CREDIT: Sim Chi Yin / VII / Courtesy United Photo Industries & Magnum Foundation.
“Big Rain” (“da yu” in Mandarin), 21, a KTV lounge worker, decorated his basement room with a happy display of balloons. He lives in room A12 of a basement beneath Beijing’s north Third Ring Road. Originally from Heilongjiang in China’s northeast, he’s been in Beijing for the past year. He sleeps in the day and wakes up around 7 or 8pm to do his hair at a salon and then grabs a cab to go to work. Giving only his surname Chen, he said: “I’m 1.8 m tall, weigh 120 jin (about 60kg), am male and interested in girls. What else do you want to know?” He was planning to move out. “It’s too humid here,” he grumbled.

Chinas “Rat Tribe”

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Looks like John Key was right about boat people

via Keeping Stock

When National rushed through legislation about stopping boat people through parliament the opposition and their lap-bloggers squealed that it was unnecessary.

In 2010, Labour MP Phil Twyford attacked John Key on Red Alert:

Does John Key really think New Zealand is about to be hit by a wave of boat people?

“What I’ve said to the Australian prime minister is that we recognise there is a problem, and we recognise that from New Zealand’s perspective it’s a problem that is coming towards our shores at some point in the future.”
Mr Key said that from all the intelligence he had received, this was “a real issue”.

Has he looked at a map recently? There is a lot of ocean between us and them. Short of us putting out the welcome mat for people-smugglers it seems very unlikely they will make it this far.

In 2011, former Green MP Keith Locke accused the PM of scaremongering in this post on the party’s Frogblog:

John Key’s scaremongering about boat people flooding into the country damages New Zealand’s race relations, Green Party immigration spokesperson Keith Locke said today.

“While John Key’s approach may increase the National Party’s ‘redneck’ vote, as happened to John Howard in Australia, it will be at a cost to race relations in New Zealand,” said Keith Locke.

“Racial dog whistling about refugees is unbefitting of a Prime Minister.

And just last year, those bastions of left-wing reason at The Standard accused John Key of invoking the “yellow peril”:

Bad jobs numbers and a succession of collapses of major businesses weighing your government down? You need: distraction! How about an old classic from the New Zealand politician’s playbook – the Yellow Peril!

Passed on by Richard Seddon and Winston Peters, Yellow Peril’s now being wielded by John Key as he talks of vague, unsubstantiated threats that boatloads of Indonesians are heading for our shores (no, I’m not sure what terrors are meant to eventuate when they land, either)

Of course, the closest any boat people have actually come to reaching New Zealand was when our mates, the Aussies, thought about helping them

[…]

Never mind that Indonesia is literally 1/6th of the world away,* John Key wants us to know the ‘threat’ from boat people, threat of what I don’t know, is very real and something we should all be worried about. Far more worried than we should be about, say, the threat of losing our jobs. (* At nearly 4,000 miles the distance from the closest parts of Indonesia to New Zealand is the distance from Europe to North America and back. Most boat people make trips from Indonesia to one of Australia’s offshore islands, a journey of a couple of hundred miles. So, we’re being asked to believe that boat people are planning, for no apparent reason, to make a journey 20 times longer and over colder, rougher, open seas in the Tasman, when Australia’s right there, literally in the way – doesn’t seem like a profitable business venture for the people smugglers for a start, 20 times the operating costs.)

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Another campaign plank discarded

Labour constantly bangs on about migration…they won’t be for much longer.

Migration figures show more people are arriving than leaving.

Migration to New Zealand hit a 10-year high in September, as fewer Kiwis left for Australia and more new migrants arrived, adding more support for the housing market.

New Zealand saw a net gain of 2700 people in September as more people arrived than left, Statistics New Zealand said.

That was the highest monthly net gain since the middle of 2003 and stronger than economists had expected.

Westpac Bank senior economist Felix Delbruck said the surprise gain was largely due to fewer New Zealanders leaving for Australia, though arrivals of non-New Zealand immigrants continued at above-average levels.

The annual net gain was more than 15,000 for the year to September, which reversed the small net loss in the previous year.  Read more »

Boat people coming to NZ…Never said Labour…now look what has happened

Labour said that boat people will never come to NZ. Even now David Shearer is insisting that NZ is too far for boat people. And yet some have turned up, albeit lost off Australia, but carrying placards nonetheless expressing their desire to come here.

A ramshackle fishing boat carrying 66 suspected asylum seekers from Sri Lanka has arrived in Australia – carrying passengers holding a sign saying “We want to go to New Zealand”.

The overcrowded wooden fishing vessel carrying men, women and children was spotted off the coast of Geraldton, about 400km north of Perth in Western Australia.

It is believed to be the first boat to have travelled so far south in recent years. Most asylum seekers arrive near Christmas Island, more than 2000km north, where they are usually intercepted.  Read more »

Fleeing everywhere…where are they all going?

Labour accuses National of causing a brain drain, national does the same in opposition. Our politicians complain that people are leaving for Australia and in Australia their politicians complain they are coming here.

In the UK it is not different…now they are moaning about a brain drain from the UK…but where are they all going?

Millions of people have emigrated from the UK over the last 10 years, most of whom seek to find a job in a more favorable economic climate. Graduate immigration is on the up as well in what’s been dubbed as the ‘talent drain’ by the British press.

According to statistics accumulated by the Office of National Statistics in the UK, over 3.5 million people have fled the country in the last decade.  Read more »

Chart of the Day – Emigration unspun

First The Standard, then John Pagani followed by David Farrar attempted to spin and de-spin emigration statistics.

All of them got it wrong and so some professional statisticians have corrected the numpty graphs and explanations.

The big problem with our stat-of-the-week was the graphics.  While David Farrar’s redesign to add the early years of Helen Clark’s government provides some context, a cumulative graph is not a good way to see changes over time.   For anyone who actually wants to see the immigration/emigration rates over time, rather than just making a political point, here is a non-cumulative graph using data I downloaded from Stats New Zealand.  The dots are totals for the 12 months ending August each year (the most up-to-date values available).

Disaggregating immigration and emigration is helpful here: immigration from Australia has been roughly constant, but emigration to Australia fluctuates a lot, on top of a weak upwards trend.