John Kasich

Nate Silver on why Republicans backed Trump

Nate Silver writes about the Trump phenomenon.

It is a great article from a writer who is the best predictor in politics.

If you’d told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, I’d have thought you were nuts. Don’t just take my word for it: Read what I wrote about Trump in July or August or even in November. Those pieces variously treated Trump’s nomination as being somewhere between improbable and extremely unlikely. You can also read pieces from October, December orJanuary that were less skeptical of Trump’s chances and show how our opinion of him evolved over time. Still, other than being early skeptics of Jeb Bush, we basically got the Republican race wrong.

Nice to see a pundit admit he was wrong. But how did he go wrong?

For a candidate like Trump to win the nomination, it means that several things have gone wrong — both for the Republican Party and in the assumptions we made about how party nominations work. The other day, I summed up the three most important such factors as follows:

Screen Shot 2016-05-05 at 2.15.25 PM Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

All over for Ted Cruz as Trump cleans out Indiana

Ted Cruz’s campaign is over as the funders tell him “enough”. Kasich’s plan to hang in for a contested convention is also in tatters.

Donald Trump, the amateur politician, has handed the professionals their arse and boy are they upset. The same fools who loathe and underestimate the skills of John key are likewise dissing Donald Trump.

The pundits are silenced.

Donald Trump, mocked and minimized by the media for months, dismissed by the pundits as a fringe character, is now the de facto Republican nominee.

While I took him seriously from the beginning, I have to pause and remind myself that a non-politician, a billionaire real estate guy, just beat all these senators and governors and took control of the GOP.

In the end, Indiana was an anticlimax. The only surprise was that Ted Cruz, who vowed to fight on to the convention, abruptly dropped out.

Cruz didn’t mention Trump in his passionate withdrawal speech. Trump called him a hell of a competitor.   Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Why people think Ted Cruz’s last name starts with C and ends with T

Ted Cruz is not well liked inside the Republican party nor in wider Washington. He is widely acknowledged as being somewhat of an asshole.

That is why the establishment hasn’t really fallen in behind him, and only will if they absolutely have had to in order to attempt to choke off Donald Trump.

But now that he can’t possibly win the required delegates prior to the convention people are starting to recall why he is an asshole…and he’s helping them remember.

In the space of just seven minutes here Thursday, Ted Cruz reminded fellow Republicans that he has few friends in the party.

First he tangled with former House speaker John A. Boehner, a longtime foe who so dislikes Cruz that he labeled him “Lucifer in the flesh.” Then Cruz undercut another Republican, fellow presidential candidate John Kasich, who had entered into an alliance with him to stop GOP front-runner Donald Trump.

“There is no alliance,” Cruz told reporters on Thursday, acting as if a pact announced by his own campaign days before had never happened.

Minutes later, Kasich strategist John Weaver dispatched a cryptic tweet: “I can’t stand liars.”

For Cruz, it was just another day of brawling with leading figures from his own party — a role that has formed the cornerstone of his short political career. But for many Republicans, it crystallized an overriding problem for Cruz’s campaign: Many people simply don’t like him.

Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Trump now has a path to victory ahead of the convention

Yesterday Donald Trump cleaned out 5 state primaries and pretty much hoovered up all available delegates.

He now sits on 950 delegates, just 287 short of the required 1237.

Nate Silver now has him ahead of predictions and now in with a shot of making the 1237 threshold:

Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump.

Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates. With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is actually running a little ahead of the path-to-1,237.

Based on provisional results, it looks as though Trump will sweep every pledged delegate in Maryland (as a result of winning every congressional district), Connecticut (as a result of winning every congressional district and getting more than 50 percent of the vote statewide), Pennsylvania (where statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware (ditto), along with 11 of 19 delegates in Rhode Island (which is highly proportional). Combined with the New York results,2 that gives Trump 200 delegates since we issued the path-to-1,237 projections, five delegates ahead of his original targets.

Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Great big donnybrook building in GOP

Ted Cruz and John Kasich are teaming up to try and stop Trump.

Ted Cruz and John Kasich have begun coordinating their campaign strategy to stop Donald Trump, an abrupt alliance announced Sunday night that includes Kasich quitting his efforts in Indiana and Cruz clearing a path for the Ohio governor in Oregon and New Mexico.

“To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead,” Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said in a statement.

Trump fired back late Sunday on Twitter, writing, “Wow, just announced that Lyin’ Ted and Kasich are going to collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination. DESPERATION!”

He added, for good measure: “Lyin’ Ted and Kasich are mathematically dead and totally desperate. Their donors & special interest groups are not happy with them. Sad!”

Trump followed up early Monday morning with a lengthier statement released by his campaign, calling out both rivals for reverting to “collusion” to stop him.    Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Trump will need to win on first ballot

If the Republican nomination fails to reach the threshold for delegates before the convention then it will become a contested convention.

If that happens, and there is a good chance that it will then Donald Trump will need to win on the first ballot.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight explains:

If you really think the chance of a multi-ballot convention is 63 percent, but also still have Trump with a 56 percent chance of winning the nomination, that implies there’s a fairly good chance that Trump will win if voting goes beyond the first ballot. That’s probably wrong. If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed.

The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.

Let’s back up a bit. In most of our discussions about delegates here at FiveThirtyEight, we treat them as though they’re some sort of statistical unit. We might say a candidate “racked up 44 delegates” in the same way we’d say Steph Curry scored 44 points. But those delegates aren’t just a scoring mechanism: Delegates are people, my friends. Delegates are people!

And as I said, they’re mostly people who aren’t going to like Trump, at least if the excellent reporting from Politico and other news organizations is right. (If Trump turns out to have more support among GOP delegates than this reporting suggests, even marginally, that could end up mattering a great deal.) How can that be? In most states, the process to select the men and women who will serve as delegates is separate from presidential balloting. In Massachusetts, for instance, Trump won 49 percent of the GOP vote on March 1 — his highest share in any state to date — to earn 22 of the state’s 42 delegates. But the people who will serve as delegates haven’t been chosen yet. That will happen at a series of congressional district conventions later this month and then a Republican state meeting in May or June. According to Politico, most of those delegates are liable to favor Ted Cruz or John Kasich rather than Trump. Twenty-two of them will still be bound to Trump on the first ballot, but they can switch after that. The same story holds in a lot of other states: in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina, for instance — also states that Trump won.   Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Cam, why are you backing Trump?

Last night I received this email from “a reader”:

Cameron you seem to be backing Trump. I reckon this; Hillary Clinton goes to bed every night praying Trump is the Republican nominee. Farrar posted on this didn’t he and I think he is right.

But the big guns know this too and what I think will happen, that is just beginning to happen now, is that Cruz and Rubio will keep Trump out but beat themselves to a standstill doing it, and Kasich will be the nominee as the only one with a chance to beat Hillary.

Yet again, someone has mistaken my calling of events as I see them as endorsement or support for one candidate or another. This happened last election in the US where people thought I was supporting Barack Obama because I kept on saying that Mitt Romney couldn’t beat him. I even had a very public bet with Leighton Smith over this. Readers commented, just like this correspondent, that I should be pushing Mitt Romney.

I am not into wishful thinking…you saw that with the gay marriage debate, calling the US election for Barack Obama and, more recently, on the  flag debate.

No amount of wishful thinking on my part or that of commenters on this site, or indeed wishful thinking from John Key, can make the truth of the matter go away…the referendum will vote to retain the existing flag.

I call things as I see them, based on a combination of my gut feeling, my assessment of the general public sentiment, polling and canvassing my connected, and not-so-connected, networks of friends across the political and business spectrum.    Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

The Republican Party and Trump: They’re not worried; they’re terrified

The GOP establishment are going all in to try to stop Trump, but until they can convince Ted Cruz to quit they won’t be able to do it.

For anyone wondering if the big wigs in the Grand Old Party (Republicans) are actually worried about Donald Trump as nominee – or if it is just a media beat-up, the answer is simple:

They’re not worried; they’re terrified and appalled and genuinely fearing for the future of the party.

Republican nominee for the 2012 election Mitt Romney didn’t hold back on Thursday, calling Mr Trump a phony and a fraud.

He’s not alone. After the Massachusetts primary, the state’s Republican governor Charlie Baker said he hadn’t voted for Trump in the primary and “I’m not going to vote for him in November”.

Mel Martinez, former Republican National Committee chair told The Wall Street Journal “I would not vote for Trump … If there is any, any, any other choice, a living, breathing person with a pulse, I would be there”.

Nebraskan senator Ben Sasse went further, saying “if the Republican Party becomes the party of David Duke, Donald Trump – I’m out.”

Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Has TrusTED become BusTED?

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You can do dirty things if you have the support of your peers, and Ted Cruz doesn’t.

His skullduggery of the past is now coming back to haunt him.

Marco Rubio won the day before Nevada’s caucuses — and Ted Cruz lost.

While Rubio was racking up big endorsements, he also managed to exact a pound of political flesh from his closest rival on Monday as Cruz’s campaign was thrown into turmoil over new allegations of “dirty tricks.”

“When you stand in front of a sign at every rally that says ‘TrustTED,’ with ‘Ted’ being the key part of the brand, you have to protect that brand at all costs — and they’ve lost that brand,” said Bruce Haynes, a GOP strategist. “Cruz cannot afford three days of the news cycle with everyone scrutinizing everything they’ve done that might be unseemly, so they had one choice to try and stop the bleeding, especially with Rubio on a bit of a rocket ride right now.”     Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.

Interesting that money in politics doesn’t always change things

The left wing always moan about big money in politics. They cry that people can buy elections with loads of money.

Were that true then we’d have an Act Party/Conservative Party coalition government.

Jeb Bush has pissed away $150 million proving, yet again, that money can’t buy you an election.

Jeb Bush, unable to muster enthusiasm for his presidential bid beyond the family network that helped him raise a record sum exceeding $150 million, is suspending his campaign following a disappointing finish in South Carolina.

The decision follows a string of underwhelming primary finishes for the former Florida governor, including in New Hampshire where he invested heavily and bet on a massive ground organization but still finished behind Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz.    Read more »

As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news, he tends to be in it, with protagonists using the courts, media and social media to deliver financial as well as death threats.

They say that news is something that someone, somewhere, wants kept quiet. Cam Slater doesn’t do quiet and, as a result, he is a polarising, controversial but highly effective journalist who takes no prisoners.

He is fearless in his pursuit of a story.

Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore him.

To read Cam’s previous articles click on his name in blue.