Marco Rubio

Nate Silver on why Republicans backed Trump

Nate Silver writes about the Trump phenomenon.

It is a great article from a writer who is the best predictor in politics.

If you?d told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, I?d have thought you were nuts. Don?t just take my word for it: Read what I wrote about Trump in July or August or even in November. Those pieces variously treated Trump?s nomination as being somewhere between improbable and extremely unlikely. You can also read pieces from October, December orJanuary that were less skeptical of Trump?s chances and show how our opinion of him evolved over time. Still, other than being early skeptics of Jeb Bush, we basically got the Republican race wrong.

Nice to see a pundit admit he was wrong. But how did he go wrong?

For a candidate like Trump to win the nomination, it means that several things have gone wrong ? both for the Republican Party and in the assumptions we made about how party nominations work. The other day, I summed up the three most important such factors as follows:

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Cam, why are you backing Trump?

Last night I received this email from “a reader”:

Cameron you seem to be backing Trump. I reckon this; Hillary Clinton goes to bed every night praying Trump is the Republican nominee. Farrar posted on this didn’t he and I think he is right.

But the big guns know this too and what I think will happen, that is just beginning to happen now, is that Cruz and Rubio will keep Trump out but beat themselves to a standstill doing it, and Kasich will be the nominee as the only one with a chance to beat Hillary.

Yet again, someone has mistaken my calling of events as I see them as endorsement or support for one candidate or another. This happened last election in the US where people thought I was supporting Barack Obama because I kept on saying that Mitt Romney couldn’t beat him. I even had a very public bet with Leighton Smith over this. Readers commented, just like this correspondent, that I should be pushing Mitt Romney.

I am not into wishful thinking…you saw that with the gay marriage debate, calling the US election for Barack Obama and, more recently, on the? flag debate.

No amount of wishful thinking on my part or that of commenters on this site, or indeed wishful thinking from John Key, can make the truth of the matter go away…the referendum will vote to retain the existing flag.

I call things as I see them, based on a combination of my gut feeling, my assessment of the general public sentiment, polling and canvassing my connected, and not-so-connected, networks of friends across the political and business spectrum. ?? Read more »

The Republican Party and Trump: They’re not worried; they’re terrified

The GOP establishment are going all in to try to stop Trump, but until they can convince Ted Cruz to quit they won’t be able to do it.

For anyone wondering if the big wigs in the Grand Old Party (Republicans) are actually worried about Donald Trump as nominee – or if it is just a media beat-up, the answer is simple:

They’re not worried; they’re terrified and appalled and genuinely fearing for the future of the party.

Republican nominee for the 2012 election Mitt Romney didn’t hold back on Thursday, calling Mr Trump a phony and a fraud.

He’s not alone. After the Massachusetts primary, the state’s Republican governor Charlie Baker said he hadn’t voted for Trump in the primary and “I’m not going to vote for him in November”.

Mel Martinez, former Republican National Committee chair told The Wall Street Journal “I would not vote for Trump … If there is any, any, any other choice, a living, breathing person with a pulse, I would be there”.

Nebraskan senator Ben Sasse went further, saying “if the Republican Party becomes the party of David Duke, Donald Trump – I’m out.”

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Sledge of the Day

Mitt Romney made an impassioned, if somewhat desperate, speech against Donald Trump.

Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, delivered a sharp broadside against Donald Trump on Thursday, slamming the GOP’s leading candidate as “a phony, a fraud.”

In a forceful, top-to-bottom indictment of Trump, delivered as pandemonium sweeps the GOP, Romney urged fellow Republicans to reject the billionaire businessman’s candidacy in an election “that will have profound consequences for the Republican Party and more importantly, for the country.”

“His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University,” Romney said in a speech at the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics. “He’s playing the members of the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House, and all we get is a lousy hat.”

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Super Tuesday puts Trump in box seat, Rubio and Cruz need to make some tough decisions

After Super Tuesday, which handed Donald Trump a clear lead in the Republican race, it is now apparent that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have some tough decisions to make.

They can either carry on and hand the nomination to Trump, or one has to quit and endorse the other. The problem with the second option is the arrogance and hubris of both of them, but especially Cruz.

The NY Times reports:

Donald J. Trump won sweeping victories across the South and in New England on Tuesday, a show of strength in the Republican primary campaign that underscored the breadth of his appeal and helped him begin to amass a wide delegate advantage despite growing resistance to his candidacy among party leaders.

Mr. Trump?s political coalition ? with his lopsided victories in Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts and Tennessee, and narrower ones in Arkansas, Vermont and Virginia ? appears to have transcended the regional and ideological divisions that have shaped the Republican Party in recent years.

With strong support from low-income white voters, especially those without college degrees, he dominated in moderate, secular-leaning Massachusetts just as easily as he did in the conservative and heavily evangelical Deep South. ?? Read more »

Trump takes Nevada

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Donald Trump dished out a hiding in the Nevada caucus yesterday, making it three wins in a row.

Politic reports:

Donald Trump trounced his rivals in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, notching his third consecutive victory and giving the Manhattan mogul even more momentum heading into Super Tuesday next week, when voters in a dozen states will cast their ballots.

Trump?s decisive win, which the Associated Press announced immediately after polls closed, was propelled by an electorate even more enraged than the ones that had swept him to wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and a second-place showing in Iowa.

“We love Nevada. We love Nevada,? Trump declared in his victory speech. “You’re going to be proud of your president and you’re going to be even prouder of your country.” ? Read more »

Has TrusTED become BusTED?


You can do dirty things if you have the support of your peers, and Ted Cruz doesn’t.

His skullduggery of the past is now coming back to haunt him.

Marco Rubio won the day before Nevada?s caucuses ? and Ted Cruz lost.

While Rubio was racking up big endorsements, he also managed to exact a pound of political flesh from his closest rival on Monday as Cruz?s campaign was thrown into turmoil over new allegations of ?dirty tricks.?

?When you stand in front of a sign at every rally that says ?TrustTED,? with ?Ted? being the key part of the brand, you have to protect that brand at all costs ? and they?ve lost that brand,? said Bruce Haynes, a GOP strategist. ?Cruz cannot afford three days of the news cycle with everyone scrutinizing everything they?ve done that might be unseemly, so they had one choice to try and stop the bleeding, especially with Rubio on a bit of a rocket ride right now.? ? ? Read more »

Interesting that money in politics doesn’t always change things

The left wing always moan about big money in politics. They cry that people can buy elections with loads of money.

Were that true then we’d have an Act Party/Conservative Party coalition government.

Jeb Bush has pissed away $150 million proving, yet again, that money can’t buy you an election.

Jeb Bush, unable to muster enthusiasm for his presidential bid beyond the family network that helped him raise a record sum exceeding $150 million, is suspending his campaign following a disappointing finish in South Carolina.

The decision follows a string of underwhelming primary finishes for the former Florida governor, including in New Hampshire where he invested heavily and bet on a massive ground organization but still finished behind Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz. ?? Read more »

Trump: I could shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters

You’ve got to love the chutzpah of Donald Trump.

On Saturday, Republican front-runner Donald Trump expressed supreme confidence in his lead?and in the “loyalty” of his supporters, suggesting that there was nothing he could do to lose votes, not even something criminal.

“My people are so smart. And do you know what else they say about my people? The polls. They say I have the most loyal people, did you ever see that? Where I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s like, incredible.”

The quote immediately went viral, with this Vine by far the most shared version of the clip. That Vine does not, it should be noted, include the portion of his statement where he says?his voters are smart.

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Trump is teaching leftie politicians that voters don?t come from labelled boxes

John Key continues to confound the left-wing, and in?the?US Donald Trump is confounding both the left and the right.

I think both men have worked out what makes people tick and it isn’t labels, boxes or pigeonholes.

The New York Times, an institution that knows as much about American Christianity as it does about unbiased journalism, is shocked that Donald Trump is the national favorite among evangelical voters. Last week, an NYT/CBS News poll showed that 42% of evangelicals supported Trump while only 25% had picked Sen. Ted Cruz as their guy in the primaries.

?Brash, thrice-married, cosseted in a gilded tower high above Fifth Avenue and fond of swearing from the stage at his rallies, Mr. Trump, who has spent his career in pursuit, and praise, of wealth, would seem an odd fit for voters who place greater value on faith, hope and charity,? writes the Times.

Ah. Thank God for this election cycle. If nothing else, Trump?s rise has exposed just how little Democrats, Republicans, and the media really understand the American people. We?ve just been through seven years of a Pro-Islam presidency, we?re threatened with the return of the most godless couple in national politics, and the New York Times thinks voters should hate Trump because he?s not Christian enough? ? Read more »