Several commentators and other bloggers are saying the latest Colmar Brunton poll is great for National and the Key/English/McCully effect has made no difference. History tells us otherwise, they are in trouble.
Back in February 2008, National was polling at 54%, in the election they won with 45% of the vote.
In February 2011 and February 2014, National was polling at 51%, in the election they won 47% of the vote.
Every time National has polled high in February but dropped 4% or more each time in the elections.