Ōhariu

Wonder no more: National want Peter Dunne returned as MP for Ohariu

With all the recent speculation about Peter Dunne’s political future, one of the unknowns remained National’s position on Dunne retaining his seat.    Yesterday we got clarity on the issue.

Around $1.1 million will be invested to build two new classrooms at Raroa Normal Intermediate School in Wellington, Associate Education Minister Nikki Kaye announced today.

“The school has an increasing roll so we’re investing in extra classrooms to expand capacity,” says Ms Kaye.

“These new teaching spaces will be modular buildings, which means they meet standards of modern, permanent structures but have the added advantage of being more adaptable.

“This is part of a third round of investments in new classrooms under Budget 2016, which provides $882.5 million for school property, including new classrooms nationwide to meet roll growth,” says Ms Kaye.

And that presser was immediately followed by   Read more »

Done with Dunne

Guest post

Ohariu is one of the key electorate this year. With the deal done by the Greens, Labour sees this as a massive opportunity to take out one of National’s support partners, be it only 1 seat.

Are they right in having this expectation?

At first glance, Labour has a right to be excited. Their electoral candidate vote has grown since 2002. In 2014 the Labour candidate received 34% of the vote compared to Dunne’s 36%. National at the same time has dropped over the last 3 elections, however, this is mainly due to the deal that National have with Dunne. In 2014 the National candidate only received 16% of the vote. The Green candidate vote has remained steady at 7% since 2008.

Read more »

Hooton on the dirty deal in Ohariu

Matthew Hooton writes about the dirty deal between the Greens and Labour in Ohariu:

Don’t be fooled by the Greens’ declarations of undying fidelity to their memorandum of understanding with Labour: Their decision not to stand a candidate against Peter Dunne in Ohariu is entirely self-interested.

Mr Dunne’s hold on Ohariu remains important, mainly because his so-called United Future Party, which won 6.7% of the vote a political generation ago in 2002, is now little more than a legal fiction. Although it can apparently still meet the Electoral Act’s test of having 500 financial members to remain a registered political party, United Future received just 5286 party votes nationwide at the last election, less than half that of the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party and barely a seventh of those won by Kim Dotcom and Hone Harawira’s outfit. Even in its stronghold of Mr Dunne’s Ohariu electorate, United Future managed a mere 273 party votes, just 15 more than Mr Dotcom and Mr Harawira’s bizarre coalition.   Read more »

Tell them they’re dreamin’, says Dunne

It’s safe to say ACT will retain Epsom because it’s the oldest deal around and the voters have shown they know the rules of the game.

Ohariu is much more interesting and less certain.

The popular media perception is that O’Connor has been given an easy ride into parliament.

That’s based on the calculation that Dunne’s vote in 2014 was 13,569 while the combined vote of the Labour and Greens candidates was 15,623.

It’s assumed, probably correctly, that if there’s no Green candidate the party’s supporters will back Labour’s man.

But it’s not that simple, because there was a National Party candidate in the field in 2014.

Brett Hudson won 6120 votes, although in theory National’s supporters should have given their ticks to Dunne.

Dunne describes reports about his imminent demise as “wildly inaccurate, ridiculously sensational and devoid of any factual basis”.

I love how a report of his imminent demise can be “wildly inaccurate”.  It is either correct, or not correct.  This blog knows that Peter Dunne isn’t the sort of person to face up to reality, preferring to hide away and hoping the problems will just go away. Read more »

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Ohariu, this is your Captain speaking

The Ohariu electorate has been very much in the news in recent days. There has been the usual amount of breathless hype and exaggeration from political commentators about what they think is going on. Most of it has been wildly inaccurate, ridiculously sensational, and so devoid of any factual basis that it could not even be described as “alternative” facts.

So, leaving aside as largely irrelevant the argument about whether the Greens and Labour have done a deal in the electorate (of course, it is a deal – to claim otherwise is as ignorant as it churlish, but describing it as “dirty” is simply puerile), and in the absence of much informed comment, here are some basic facts about Ohariu.

At the last election, just under 54% of Ohariu voters voted for either the UnitedFuture or National Party electorate candidates, with around 37% supporting the UnitedFuture candidate. About 42% supported either the Green or Labour candidates. On the party votes side, just over 51% of voters supported National and UnitedFuture, with about 38% backing Labour and the Greens. Read more »

Looks like Ohariu is going to become the ‘hit and run’ campaign of 2017

Peter Dunne has got his y-fronts in a bunch over Greg O’Conner and has done a ‘hit and run’ attack on him.

NBR reports:

United Future MP Peter Dunne has come out swinging at the more determined efforts to unseat him from his Ohariu electorate,  saying Labour’s nomination of former Police Association president Greg O’Connor as its candidate, and the Greens not standing, improves his chances.

Mr O’Connor is “Andrew Little’s pet,” Mr Dunne says.

Read more »

Greens attack Nats and Act for rort in Epsom now donkey deep in Ohariu

There is a reason I call them hippycrites.

The Green Party won’t run a candidate in the Wellington seat of Ohariu because of it’s deal with Labour to change the government in September.

Labour at the weekend announced former long-standing Police Association president Greg O’Connor would be their candidate to challenging incumbent, United Future leader Peter Dunne. Read more »

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Why is Glenda Hughes involving herself in selections?

The tipline has been running hot since we outed National Party Board Member Glenda Hughes as being the person behind the challenge of Clutha-Southland MP Todd Barclay. Hughes is Wellington based, and the National Party membership have a long-standing hatred of outsiders meddling in their selections.

What is worse than meddling in selections outside your own region is meddling in selections in your own region and losing.   Read more »

All this talk of gifting seats to Labour is nonsense and wishful thinking

The Labour-Greens deal has been hammered as a meaningless piece of political theatre, and deservedly so because it achieves nothing. It could achieve something though, if the Greens stop being vote stealers and not run candidates in marginal seats where Labour has a chance of winning. Andrew Little should take a look at the Herald suggestions but not too seriously, and negotiate a deal to see Labour win seats because there is no Green candidate.

 Labour’s leader, Andrew Little, was quick to reserve his party’s options post-election, saying the agreement would end on election day. Is it a non-aggression pact for the election? It could be, they say. They might consider not contesting some seats to give a candidate from one or the other a better chance of winning. But that has not been decided either. Will it mean joint policies? Possibly.

The three seats where the Green candidate gifts the seat to National are Auckland Central, Ohariu & Christchurch Central.

Auckland Central  Nikki Kaye has a margin of 600 over Jacinda Adern. Denise Roche, the Green candidate, won 2080 votes. Those votes going to Labour could have seen a relatively comfortable victory to Jacinda.

Ohariu  Peter Dunne has a margin of 710 over the highly rated Ginny Andersen. The Green candidate, Tane Woodley, got 2764 votes.

Christchurch Central  This is a little harder for Labour to win as Nicky Wagner has a majority of 2420 thanks to exceptional work in the electorate over a long period of time, but she was running against a drip, Tony Milne from Labour, and David Moorehouse from the Greens won 2800 votes. Like Ginny Andersen, the Labour candidate, Duncan Web, is extremely highly rated by people outside the Labour Party, mainly for doing the Lords work fighting EQC, so he would have a good chance if the Greens did not run a candidate.   Read more »

There is a possible bonus in the Labour/Green civil union

There is a possible silver lining in the civil union of Labour and the Greens.

Richard Harman at Politik explains:

The Labour/Green pact announced yesterday may pave the way for Greens Co-Leader James Shaw to stand against Peter Dunne in Ohariu.

If Labour didn’t stand a candidate — and Labour sources say that’s a real possibility — then, on paper, based on the last election results, Mr Dunne would lose his seat.

That would be a major blow to National’s attempts to form a fourth term Government because Mr Dunne is, in effect, a bonus seat.

His winning that seat does not affect the total number of seats National gets allocated based on its list vote.

I’m not sure that Richard Harman has his sums right.

On the surface he is correct in that Peter Dunne got 13,569 votes and Labour’s candidate Virginia Anderson got 12,859 votes and the Green candidate got 2,764 votes. If there was just one left-wing candidate, be it a Green or Labour candidate and you just took the raw numbers and instantly transferred them across in the rather simplistic manner that journalists like to do then Richard Harman would be right.  Read more »