Opinion poll

Looking behind the numbers of Colmar Brunton

Colmar Brunton have helpfully provided a look behind the numbers, especially regarding the MOU announcement of the Greens and Labour.

This is not good reading so the one Green party member who reads this blog should look away now.

Following the announcement of the Labour and Green Party Memorandum of Understanding, support for the Labour Party increased significantly, from 26% to 31%, and support for New Zealand First decreased, from 11% to 7%. Support for the Conservative Party also increased, from 0.2% to 1.2%. No other changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Please note: We have displayed these results to 1 decimal place to aid significance testing.

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Perhaps they need to hire Farrar?

The UK polling companies need to seriously consider hiring David Farrar to sort out their woeful polling practices.

A systematic bias in the way people were selected to take part in opinion polls before the general election is emerging as the most likely reason why the industry failed to predict an overall majority for David Cameron in May?s general election.

Analysis undertaken by polling companies, including YouGov and ICM, of what went wrong in May has found that that a relative over-representation of politically engaged young voters produced a forecast that flattered Ed Miliband. Conversely, the over-70s ? who broke heavily for the Tories ? were under-represented in YouGov?s internet panels.

The findings come before the publication in January of the initial findings of an independent study for the polling industry, led by Prof Patrick Sturgis of Southampton University, to examine why so many failed to predict a majority win for the Conservative party in May.

YouGov research into its election errors ? it underestimated Tory support by 3.7 points and overestimated Labour by 2.8 points ? identified an excess of politically engaged young respondents. Because of their age, they were disproportionately?Labour but ? because of their interest in politics ? they were also more likely than the rest of their age group to turn out and vote.

ICM has long afforded a weight to each age bracket (18-24, 25-34 and so on) to match the group?s size in the census but is now concerned that the individual respondents in each bracket may not be representative of that group.

The polling company is reviewing its weighting scheme so that sample groups reflect turnout likelihoods among young and older people, and between people at all points on the social spectrum. This, together with somewhat stronger assumptions about the behaviour of respondents who decline to say how they will vote, has the average effect of reducing the Labour vote share by about two percentage points and increasing the Conservative vote share to a similar extent.

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30% of GOP supporters want to bomb them, but 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from a fictional country

The Guardian and left wing mouth-piece blogs are all aghast that 30% of Republican supporters want to bomb a fictional place. They’ve run all sorts of headlines and stories to that effect.

Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.

More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney?s animated classic, Aladdin.

In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: ?Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?? While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.

But what they haven’t reported, while they mock Republicans for their apparent stupidity, is that 44% of Democrat supporters want to welcome refugees from?the?same fictional country.

Just last week, Democrats in the media were guffawing over a poll which showed 30% of Republican primary voters would bomb the fictional city from Disney?s Aladdin. This week a Republican polling group asked a similar question of Democrats, and the results were even more embarrassing, with 44% of Democrats saying they?d support taking in refugees from Agrabah. ? Read more »

John Key has massive work to do on the flag


Not wanted

John Key already knew this poll would be bad, his pollster would have told him that support for a flag change is going backwards.

A One News/Colmar Brunton poll has found that two thirds of us don’t want a flag change.

The poll, taken before the final four potential flag designs were announced, shows 66 per cent want to keep the current flag, up 2 per cent from 18 months ago.

There was a similar rise of 1 per cent to 28 per cent in those in favour of a flag change. ?? Read more »


UMR doesn’t stand for Unbelievably Massaged Result

Different? What do you mean different?

Different? What do you mean different?

Labour?s pollsters UMR have allegedly done a poll that shows Labour 41-35 down instead of 47-31 down as all the other polls show.

People in the polling industry are very surprised with these numbers, and consider them to be highly unlikely.

They also consider it highly unlikely that a reputable polling company like UMR would ever get a poll that is this far different from all the other polls.

The issue for UMR is that if their brand gets damaged by showing crazy poll results that don’t reflect reality some of their commercial candidates will axe them.

Unbelievable political polls damage polling organisations reputations, and cost them work. UMR will be desperate to release the actual polls to show they are not dodgy.

Labour should release the raw data from the poll to prove that it is kosher. ? Read more »

They should get Farrar to do their polling

The UK pollsters are in a bit of a pickle, for getting their polls so dreadfully wrong.

Polling companies face an independent inquiry into how they got the election result so wrong after nearly every poll failed to predict the extent of the Conservative victory.

An industry association for pollsters admitted that eve-of-vote surveys ?were clearly not as accurate as we would like” and needed independent investigation.

The British Polling Council said it would look into the causes of the ?apparent bias? against the Tories and make recommendations for future polls.

The independent investigation was announced after polling companies admitted their predictions had fared badly, but struggled to explain what had gone wrong. ?? Read more »

Giving a liberal elite idiot a jolly good hiding

In Australia it looks like Jess Elgood, Fairfax’s polling boss, has managed to unite the polling industry against her.

The sledging is legendary.

LEADING pollsters have lined up to condemn the overreach of Fairfax?s new polling boss, Jess Elgood, when analysing Ipsos?s poll results in Monday?s Fairfax newspapers.

Ms Elgood was quoted in The Sydney Morning Herald saying: ?They have read the writing on the wall for Mr Abbott … It possibly ?indicates that the voters have ?already moved on from Mr ?Abbott.?

The Ipsos poll found a three-percentage-point rise in the ?Coalition?s two-party vote such that it trailed the Labor Party 49 to 51 per cent.

The results did not fit the ?narrative of commentators that the Prime Minister?s poor ?performance was damaging the government?s standing.

Galaxy Research managing ?director David Briggs disputed Ms Elgood?s argument.

?The idea that the surge in ?government support is because voters are already factoring in ?Abbott?s potential departure doesn?t make intuitive sense,? he said.

Liberal Party pollster Mark Textor evoked a Monty Python theme, describing the Ipsos boss?s analysis as ?desperately free from the ravages of quantitative ?evidence?.

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Little better than the rest says TV3 poll, really?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

55 percent you say? Is that all?

According to a released TV3 poll Andrew Little is supposedly better than the rest of the muppets who were leader before him.

In attempt to get some good news out early for Andrew Little it appears TV3 has led early with the one result Andrew Little supposedly shines in.

He’s just two months into the job, but already Labour leader Andrew Little is outshining all his predecessors since Helen Clark, according today’s 3 News-Reid Research poll.

It’s the first political poll of the year and sets the tone for what’s set to be a rip-roaring battle of the leaders as Mr Little takes on Prime Minister John Key.

The poll shows 55 percent of voters think Mr Little is potentially a better match for Mr Key than his predecessors.

3 News Political Editor Patrick Gower says there’s a warning for the Prime Minister in today’s poll.

“Even National Party supporters think Little’s one to watch, that will force Key to sit up and take notice. There’s no room for complacency this term.

“Key’s popularity hasn’t been dented and Labour’s revolving leadership has struggled to get one over him, but this poll shows he may have finally met his match.”

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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More Dodgy Polling from the Conservatives

Last election Colin Craig reckoned that his polling showed him a long way ahead of National?s Mark Mitchell. Colin got hammered with Mark winning a majority of 12,222.

Colin?s dodgy polling was essentially push polling, and gave him terrible results.

Questions included both unprompted and prompted aspects, and sought to differentiate the responses regarding party voting intentions from candidate voting intentions.? Relevant questions ?included the following, in order of being asked:

1. For your party vote, have you decided who you will be voting for in the election?

2. Which party do you currently intend to vote for?

3. Have you heard of the Conservative Party?

4. Have you heard of Colin Craig?

Participants were read a brief preamble to provide context: ?Colin Craig is the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand. In the Auckland mayoral election, Colin came third with over 40,000 votes?. Then asked?

5. If Colin were to stand in as a candidate in your electorate, what would be the likelihood that you would vote for Colin to be your member of parliament (on a scale of 1 = definitely; 2 = likely; 3 = neutral; 4 = unlikely and 5 = very unlikely)?

Those who identified they were neutral or unlikely to vote for Craig were asked:

6?. Who do you intend to vote for?

There were additional questions relating specifically to how awareness was generated, as well as detailed policy questions. I?ve been advised these questions are relevant to the Conservative Party?s campaign strategy, and so details can?t be released.

To say the least I was gobsmacked with this response. Not only did it confirm the conflict of interest but it exposed the highly suspect methodology used by Research First in obtaining what they?euphemistically?describe as a ?result?.

This is nothing short of a rigged poll. They lead respondents down a garden path and even prompted them as to what the required response should have been with poor questions. The poll surely is statistically invalid, in point of fact it is complete rubbish.

Now Colin Craig?s dodgy internal polls are telling him that Garth McVicar is winning in?Napier.? Read more »

Labour has massive problems

Fairfax/Ipsos presents their data a little differently from other pollsters, but it does give you an insight into where Labour is in serious trouble.

National’s total support is 54.8% and Labour’s is 24.9%.

Let’s look at the demographics to find where Labour is in trouble.

With men:



In the Upper North Island outside of Auckland:


Obviously Labour banging on about the holiday highway is working a treat…for National. Read more »