Party vote

Done with Dunne

Guest post

Ohariu is one of the key electorate this year. With the deal done by the Greens, Labour sees this as a massive opportunity to take out one of National’s support partners, be it only 1 seat.

Are they right in having this expectation?

At first glance, Labour has a right to be excited. Their electoral candidate vote has grown since 2002. In 2014 the Labour candidate received 34% of the vote compared to Dunne’s 36%. National at the same time has dropped over the last 3 elections, however, this is mainly due to the deal that National have with Dunne. In 2014 the National candidate only received 16% of the vote. The Green candidate vote has remained steady at 7% since 2008.

Read more »

Has Grant triggered the Labour Party panic button?

Their internal polling must be going to the dogs if he’s scared Labour’s #2 won’t get back in on the list!

Grant says Jacinda and Plughead are losers

If Labour drop another couple of percent in the party vote, and two or three of the Labour star performers take their electorate, like Nash and Davis, they could very well face a the reality of having no list MPs at all.

A Labour party without it’s finance shadow minister?  A Labour party without Jacinda Ardern?

It’s is a reality, and Grant Robertson knows it.

Why isn’t Labour focusing on the undecided voter?

This, from last night’s poll.  The important issues to undecided voters

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Actually, that’s not entirely fair.  Labour has focused on education and wages… of sorts   Read more »

Colin Craig can’t win, so why is anyone bothering?

Matthew Theunissen reports

Labour deputy leader David Parker said: “…the only way Colin Craig will get elected is if the National Party manipulates MMP and throws him the seat.”

And National will only make a deal with the bad, not the mad.   That hasn’t stopped Craig’s dad from trying his hardest to keep himself  and his neighbours in, what he hopes will be, his son’s electorate.

Colin’s father Ross mounted a successful challenge to the draft boundaries, shifting about 50 neighbouring lifestyle blocks from Rodney electorate into East Coast Bays.

In his objection to the Representation Commission’s original proposed boundaries, Ross Craig said Haigh Access Rd and the adjacent stretch of East Coast Rd had links with the Bays. “This area is within the East Coast Bays area for local body elections,” he said.

Ross Craig sent out flyers and got 72 other signatures on his petition – and this week, the commission agreed to the boundary change, almost certainly giving his son more votes if he confirms his intent to run in East Coast Bays.

The really amusing thing is that his son still doesn’t know what electorate he will stand in, so all that effort may have been for nothing anyway. Read more »

2014 Election all over bar the shouting – literally

over

There may be some minor excitement about who wins an electorate seat, or if NZ First will make it back into parliament (no), but in essence, apart from a few minor details, this election isn’t about who wins and who loses, but how to proportion the tax payer loot between all the scum list MPs.

And to a fair degree this is more a reflection of a completely disorganised opposition rather than a super effective government.

I can’t remember an electorate being this sure of itself so far out from the election for some time.

 

– Stuff

Whaleoil Poll Result: Party vote and preferred Prime Minister

Thanks for participating in our poll questions two days ago.  Of course, these are not “scientific”, nor are they representative of anything except what our self-selecting group of voters decided to share, but based on that, we can draw some conclusions about the Whaleoil community.

Party vote

I really didn’t expect our party vote results to be anything but a landslide for National, but it also shows the average Whaleoil reader also tends to be conservatively liberal.

1,183 people voted in the Party vote poll.  Two said they wouldn’t vote at all, which I find fascinating because why read a political blog if you have no interest in voting?

2 people would also vote for a party “Not yet registered”.  This could be the Internet Party, I guess.

Here are the results

  • National (76%, 898 Votes)
  • ACT (14%, 164 Votes)
  • Conservatives (5%, 54 Votes)
  • Labour (1%, 11 Votes)
  • NZ First (1%, 10 Votes)
  • Legalise Cannabis (0%, 5 Votes)
  • Green (0%, 4 Votes)
  • United Future (0%, 2 Votes)
  • Maori (0%, 1 Votes)
  • Focus NZ (0%, 1 Votes)
  • Alliance (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Democrats (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Mana (0%, 0 Votes)

About 2% (26 people) of Whaloil poll voters are still undecided.  Not sure what that means for guests posts!  Doesn’t look like fertile ground to turn people’s votes around.   Read more »

Down in the bunker

Bunker mentalityLabour are now in bunker mode. Their thinking is very much last stand type thinking.

Ironically they are all back in their electorate campaigning hard under a FPP mentality desperately trying to save THEIR seat. They aren’t trying any more for the party vote, it is all about personal survival.

Of course the ones left scratching their heads are those literally taking one for the team on the list in un-winnable seats. They are watching their party sink and their prospects of re-election sink with it.

Watch now for evidence of Labour MPs advertising locally yet minimising or completely ignoring the Labour brand. Clayton Cosgrove has been doing it for years. Take a look at his website and you wouldn’t know he was a Labour MP. His latest newsletter to constituents doesn’t even have a single instance of the word “Labour” in it. Information filtering in via the tipline tells me that Jacinda Ardern is playing the same game in Auckland Central hoping beyond hope that the voters don’t twig she is a Labour candidate.

Labour suport MMP, almost to the last candidate. The irony is that they aren’t all that focused right now on the party vote because they are fighting individual battles to stay in the game and the party brand is damaged so badly that no one wants to be associated with it.

Let me know via the tipline if you come across any other examples of labour candidates de-branding themselves.